BrickBot

Experienced sports bettor, amateur sports modeler

[BlaiseBets📘 @BlaiseBets]

📝🆓 MLB Play — SPICY under🌶️

👉 Logan Webb under 2.5 earned runs
(Current price is -134 DK)

love love LOVE this spot — strong lean under 5.5 hits allowed as well, but prefer earned runs by a hair

Massive and I mean MASSIVE positive regression is on its way. He has a 5.06 ERA and a 3.34xFIP + 3.55 SIERA. A 1.0 difference is HUGE… but a 1.7 difference is astronomical

Now, he faces the Rockies who are dead last vs righties.

This is also his first start since returning from injury, and the books are only projecting him to go 5IP here. In one rehab start, he was limited to 3.1IP and 62 pitches. He likely gets capped at 75-80 pitches tonight, which puts him in line for being capped at 5 unless he’s lightning efficent (in which case, he’s probably flying under this number)

For context, 3 earned runs in 5IP equates to a 5.40 ERA. 3 earned runs in 6IP equates to a 4.50 ERA. His advanced numbers project his numbers to drop around 3.50

The only thing going against him is pitching in Coors, but it doesn’t justify a -130 price here

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

@ryanpropz @Mr_Deeds3 Completely agree on the overpaying point at this point*

*except the entirety of the trade isn’t over. If they win a ship or even just have 2-3 incredibly competitive szn (I’m talking ECF every year, Finals) then they didn’t overpay IMO for a 2nd tier player in this draft

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

@ryanpropz @Mr_Deeds3 I see your point, but this team wants to win right now. You have a core that went to g7 of Finals vs OKC of Hali/Siakam/Nesmith for 3 yrs; Nembhard for 2. All year it has been that the top 4 picks are a class above, I don’t see how anyone B-tier of draft affects that ^ timeline

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

Indication of success (5.32 xFIP, 2.2 K-BB%). So, even though the Marlins offense hasn't been stellar either (98 wRC+) they get a good matchup tonight, as they also are better at home (110 wRC+ vs 87) and against RHP (99 wRC+ vs 88)

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

May end up being my biggest MLB card of the year so far, so I thought a good time as ever to write out some of my thoughts on a card....

TOR @ TBR under 7.5 runs (-121 @ BR)

I project this 6.77. Neither offense has been stellar, sitting at 95 and 96 wRC+ this season

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

I projected much better pre-szn then they have performed, sitting at a 99 wRC+ in 2026 and 81 the past week, & even worse away from Camden (119 wRC+ vs 77 wRC+). His counterpart, Chris Bassitt, has been abysmal. He has a 5.46 ERA and his expected statistics don't give any...

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

while the Blue Jay bats have also been worse on the road (91 wRC+ vs 100). The main factor is the SP matchup, as Gausman (3.37 xFIP, 19.9 K-BB%) and Rasmussen (2.89 xFIP, 22.1 K-BB%) have been excellent so far in 2026.

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

@UFO_UFC IMO

Yes, it is natural that he has this opinion based on what you stated.

Doesn’t not make the statement misogynist*

*not outright calling him misogynist

Using “Different from Western culture” isn’t a cop out for terrible takes — which can be used in inverse as well

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

@JonPgh I def didn’t think “most” people know, I was referring to people more in the weeds of stats Btw (again no shade) but IMO — I’ve always used “K% & then BB%” in a lot higher regard then strict K-BB% to analyze elite but also Shane Baz is my GOAT so maybe I’m the idiot LOL

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

UMass +7.5✅

But Miami OH should 100% still be in the tournament. If winning every regular season game and losing on a neutral on a 11am tip takes them out, that would be insane

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

March Madness seems like fun time to come back into the betting fold! Been focused on projections for CBB this winter & will do the same for MLB this summer, so let's look at today's slate.

*No injury adjustments

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

March Madness seems like fun time to come back into the betting fold! Been focused on projections for CBB this winter & will do the same for MLB this summer, so let's look at today's slate.

*No injury adjustments

[Room44Bets @Room44B]

🚨Huge Announcement🚨

The Room44Bets Website is up and running!!

I've created the ultimate space to consume all the content I have to offer:
- Daily Projections
- Best Bets
- Real-time Matchups
- Team Metrics
- In-depth record keeping

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

4 CBB plays already🔒in

Running NHL and NBA numbers now💻

Hoping to play some NBA props and ladders too🪜

All free on the Discord. Let's create a community!

https://t.co/0ip3o9DsOn

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

2-1 in CBB today and about to make a couple adds 💰

Also checking in on NBA and NHL

All free!

https://t.co/EQXMSX9940

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

Dan Lanning, that should be a fireable offense #OrangeBowl

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

HUGE throw from Moore, MASSIVE catch from Sadiq #OrangeBowl

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

Pretty happy with this one!

Boise State -5 💰

Projection: -8.56

Result: -9 🔥 🔥

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

The model is showing a lot of differences today, so trying to make sure we aren't missing anything:

Boise St -5

Projection: -8.56

Host #56 New Mexico in big Mountain West battle. Lobos having a great year themselves, with their only losses coming against undefeated Nebraska..

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

#39 USC, #27 NC St, and most recently #80 Nevada on the road. The wins match New Mex though, beating #34 Saint Mary's and #49 Butler, along with #83 Utah Valley, while sporting the 20th hardest SOS via KP. I will back the Broncos at home with a slight edge via my numbers.

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

The model is showing a lot of differences today, so trying to make sure we aren't missing anything:

Boise St -5

Projection: -8.56

Host #56 New Mexico in big Mountain West battle. Lobos having a great year themselves, with their only losses coming against undefeated Nebraska..

[BrickBot @BrickBot_Sports]

and to rival #129New Mex St. However, even with playing NEB and having 3 top-100 wins, they still rank 173rd SOS via KP. On the other hand, #53 Boise has rebounded since losing to a D2 team to open the szn, going 8-3 since with losses coming to...