Bring The British Back

Charles III, King of England and Emperor of India

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

https://t.co/4p0fz76ex8

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@VaibhavSisinty Nonsense, how they distinguish his heartbeat from the millions in the area

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@DrewPavlou So you expect the afghans to not defend their country against invaders?

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@ChuGeCC Thats a ladyboy

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@DrewPavlou He killed a boy in cold blood. Doesn't matter how brave he was, a crime is a crime.

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@xinwendiaocha This is 10+ years ago

[MrBanks💰 @Mrbankstips]

This aired in 2008. You don’t really know what you think you know.

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@MyLordBebo Got too big for his head, thought he could do no wrong and boom thats how life gets you.

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@RpsAgainstTrump @lilyval15187063 She looks like a man

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@SGZH99 Looks like AI

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@Tas1Bora State sponsored capitalism resulting in national champions. A well worn path

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@chinafutureclub Its just in the provinces, bangkok is fine

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@nirman_vihar Voltaren? I use it all
The time for joint pain

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@CarlZha If they founded and developed it in china, means they directly or indirectly used state resources. That should be considered treason, right?

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@MalcolmNance I am sure Claude and Palantir has already war games this for them

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@ScubertDubert70 @of_quantity @_10delta_ The straits are closed but they ain't closed for china

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@newstart_2024 He is just making it up

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@thealepalombo I don't think you can do it. It's incredibly difficuly to get a relevant visa. There is no digital nomad or retirement visa unlike many asean countries. Attemting to do any kind of visa-exempt run will result in you being pulled in for questioning.

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@FirstSquawk @gemoscatelli Lol so they want an endless war, where the entire world pays the price.

[Bring The British Back @BritRuleAgain]

@stephensacks @AFpost I don't care if it's from a book or not. It only matters if he believes its true.