Sameer Achhra

Fund Manager - Anantham Financial Services | Equity.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Agree with this. The numbers have to be a record.
In 2013 also scheme was open for 3 months. 30% of total amt was only collected with 6 weeks to closure. A lot of collection beyond that has been back ended.
This time being for 4 months , much of collection should come in next 2-2.5 months. 70-90 Billion USD Of incremental flows is possible in time ahead as comapred to 2013, we have a much better credit rating and economy has got more durable. Not many seem to be expecting this.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

A Good chunk of Current account deficit for Indian economy came from heavy GOLD imports which was one reason for a strong pressure on rupee. This was the largest component putting pressure! Post China, India is the 2nd largest Gold importer in the world. Record 71.98 Billion USD gold imports were done in FY26, 58 Billion USD in FY25 even while tonnage reduced by 5%.

Record Foreign institutional investor selling in capital market coupled with it added to decent pressure .

Now since last 2-3 months the imports of gold silver have been restricted with increase in bullion duty, which is helping to arrest rupee fall but not enough.

We still have lot of pockets for imports that need to be taken care of.
Eventually rupee will make a base though. The bottoming process is nearing for the rupee.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Saket, this one’s story ends up being a value trap / range trap story eventually. Even Pre 2020, when no substantial investments were made in ancillary business of wedding decorations, mandap , etc, the margins never saw sustained expansion despite the ability of business to operate as a platform.
In India marriages can be optimized only to an extent and as the generation moves ahead, the platforms start feeling more mechanical.

The competition is optimizing selective niches available here:-
- Knott Dating is for professional affluent elite
- Gleeden for extra marital dating
- When Tinder was go to, disruptions happened via Bumble and so many other apps where each app seeped into a niche.

A huge unorganised share of marriage market is still retained by community agents who give super matches and personal touch. They have a say above platforms amongst Indian marriages.

All these reduce the subscription spend of each other at cost of each other. And with passing years, spend per marriage keeps going down and transition of society to more modern ways of doing it and generation wanting to keep things more organic amd natural.

This business ends up throwing cash , increasing topline but can’t retain sustained expansion.

Good for a range play because its at bottom today but doesn’t exhibit the characteristics of being a compounder.

9 years is a long time evenly spread pre covid to post covid for company to change its structure or hive off non essential bits, yet the profits remain rangebound.

Happy to look at it when a fundamental change occurs.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@MachJustine A genius at rest hits the Anvil once and generates millenia worth of growth.

An idiot in motion goes further and then will fall in a hole he’s not prepared to recover from!

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Now 60% Up from day of this tweet in 4
Months!! J&K Bank doing amazing stuff!

121 to 193/-. Now valued at 1.3x PB!
Has crossed its ATH from 2014!

Will continue to hold!🌟💯

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Toh Kaisi Rahi Lala😝😁
36% in 3 months here 🌟💯
J&K Jalwa Bhikerte hue 🙂

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@AbhiAttorney_ Bhai Sahab. What a levelling insight is this 🌟👏. Relatable Pro Max

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@HoratioLibra DMed you.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@HoratioLibra Does it still apply if its natural 8th lord for Aries Ascendant but not placed in 8th house?

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Candour Techtex - had seen this one back in mid of 2023 when they were aggresively expanding. Had a ground insight from a frnd in crate manufacturing that these guys were manufacturing for Samsonite too in plastic moulding divison. Mangal Keshav went on increasing the stake from 7 to 18% subsequently! Stock did 3.5x too from those levels too!

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@HoratioLibra Solid On Point👏

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@jiteshtulaskar @VijayKedia1 Post deleted hai bhai

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Given the indirect and direct bending and blatant violation of Rules that America usually does and when it comes to your ownselves, no playbook or rule exists, by that logic, even america shouldn’t get any money for any kind of reconstruction/development . Be it causing destruction in Ukraine war, funding terrorism and creation of talibans, etc - Now should we calculate how many dollars were used there?

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@mzgaangy First you understand, you had to write “trading” instead of investing.
And that alone qualifies you to “quit investing”

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Toh Kaisi Rahi Lala😝😁
36% in 3 months here 🌟💯
J&K Jalwa Bhikerte hue 🙂

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

I think one of My Base Case thesis around J&K Bank having it in Portfolio today more than ever is India Taking over PoK😅 .

A reasonable assumption to me is we do this in next 3-5 Years
I like using basic Astrology sometimes so India in a Mars Mahadasha for next 7 years can make this happen.

If nothing of this happens, i had advantage of buying it in early 2023 around 55-56 levels. Can average it top that up decently.

Interesting CRAR is at 15%, still pretty higher than 9% Regulatory limits

I was surprised to see its Credit Card users growing by 13% yOy, debit card users growing by 10%
Gross advances latest quarter YoY growth was 17%

Even while other banks had a decent bull run b/w 2020-24/25, even in 2019 J&K had to maintain PCR above 80-81%

The whole thesis on asset quality is that there is going to be a time in near future when provision coverage ratios come down- a lot of this will add to PAT increasing for many banks

J&K does PAT of INR 2000 crores + , Bandhan will do only INR 1000 crores and averagely has done 2100-2600 crs in past 3 yrs yet Bandhan’s Mcap is 2x of this.

J&K has a problem that has been far persistent Geographically. Bandhan’s problem now has also become persistent because from 2019 - almost 7 yrs they cant manage asset quality + inter country lending where MFI industry faced problems of lot of bangaldeshis coming to WB on fake aadhar and mobile no got loans in MFI industry

If the market is ready to derate J&K for a persistent problem than why not Bandhan? J&K asset quality issues were not even half bad that of Bandhan .

And despite today 90% PCR , J&K does 2000+ crs of PAT at < 1 Price to Book.

A more Safe geographical environment will help more banks come in J&K but will create more credit growth via Private Capex in J&K.

Another Level in Banking In future is going to be Non Advances Revenue viz Treasury side and Fee based income sources and Investment management

J&K does well with 34-35% coming from treasury. ICICI bank i think is the leader here hands down with treasury revenue being 86% of Retail banking revenue

ICICI ‘s treasury PBT FY25 was 86% of Retail Banking PAT. In 2019 for ICICI this was 65%. In 2018 it was 108% of Retail PBT but that was one off due to some stake sale in 2018 .

However This level is more Margin oriented via Value add services like Hedging , derivatives , Forward products, Treasury side income, etc

For a Bank like J&K to be already at 34-35% and for HDFC bank in Q3 FY2026 this is 17% only!

This vertical definitely holds a key for any bank’s rerating because fight for Retail is getting extremely aggressive.
Even for HDFC’s rerating if imagine this lever goes from 17% to ICICI’s level of 80%+, imagine.

Also Treasury liabilities are just 10-13% of Retail liabilities and needs lower deployment of capital with better ROICs

Lets see how this Shapes up and Ages

Happy to be wrong. Let time answer on thesis.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Coming in a decade where USA’s best Cards are behind them and its time for 100 year reversal!
Waah re hamare regulators🫡
Aur der laga dete yaar

[Crypto India @CryptooIndia]

JUST IN: 🇮🇳 India's stock brokers Groww, Zerodha, Angel One and Upstox receive approval to offer US stocks to Indian investors.

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@sunandavashisht 💯

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

@ARanganathan72 @narendramodi @jiteshtulaskar

[Sameer Achhra @BrodaFromMroda]

Thats what i mentioned that its a part of larger godrej group as a whole.

Since godrej aerospace falls under godrej & Boyce controlled by Jamshyd Godrej family and
listed entity is under Adi Godrej control, it wouldn’t make sense for Adi Godrej group to run a competing business and hence wealth management is a different vertical. Godrej capital ltd which runs godrej finance and Godrej housing is already a decent financial services business under godrej industries, a listed entity ,so it makes sense for the same listed entity to also tap into ancillary areas like wealth management.