Colin Brogan

Millian Liberal, formerly known as deplorable-free-thinker. Programmer and Musician. I welcome your counter-arguments in reply.

[Yehuda Teitelbaum @chalavyishmael]

JD Vance asks Israel, "What is your exact proposal? You're a country of 9 million people. You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have."

This right here is the problem.

You see, if we take him at his word, JD assumes that every problem has a negotiated solution if only reasonable people work hard enough to find one.

Americans, but specifically Trump and his inner circle, tend to approach the world like businessmen. Everyone has interests, everyone wants prosperity, and if you're clever enough you can eventually structure a deal that gives everybody something they want.

But that simply isn't true.

What are the goals of the relevant countries?

Well, Israel does not want its citizens incinerated in a nuclear attack. That's pretty much it.

Iran's rulers on the other hand, view themselves as participants in a religious and ideological struggle that long predates the current conflict and extends far beyond Israel itself.

The Islamic Republic was founded as a revolutionary state. They speak openly about exporting the revolution, expelling Western influence from the Middle East, destroying the "Zionist entity," and leading what they see as a historic struggle against the American led world order.

Their answer to every obstacle over the last forty seven years has been Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, Shiite militias, ballistic missiles, and nuclear enrichment. In other words, terror.

Which part of that is supposed to be negotiated away?

Israel has signed peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, normalized relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, withdrew from Sinai, withdrew from Gaza, accepted partition, pursued Oslo, and is still searching for ways to coexist with its neighbors.

At the end of the day, Americans enjoy the luxury of fighting wars far from home. Families in northern Israel are running to bomb shelters because drones are being launched from Lebanon as we speak. Should Israel just accept that?

Imagine Ariel Sharon telling George Bush in 2004, three years after 9/11, "You're a country of 300 million people. You can't just kill your way out of every terrorism problem you have."

Americans would have considered that outrageous. Rightfully so.

America was simply trying to destroy the people who murdered thousands of Americans and promised to do it again.

Washington keeps assuming Iran's rulers ultimately want the same things Americans want. Things like prosperity, stability, and economic growth. The chance to rejoin the international system.

Their behavior over nearly half a century suggests otherwise.

Any agreement they accept is accepted because they believe it serves their long term objectives. If they agree to pause, it is because they think pausing benefits them. If they compromise, it is because they believe compromise advances their ultimate goals. They think in decades, not election cycles.

The most one can hope for is not conversion. It is deterrence. It is convincing them that losing this round is preferable to continuing the fight, while understanding that they fully intend to continue pursuing the same objectives when circumstances become more favorable.

I think JD knows. Which makes his comments all the more disturbing.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@JonahDispatch Iran, starting October 6th

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@jesspion @visegrad24 The son and heir of the last Shah is calling for a transition into democracy.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

For everyone who is confused:
In the JCPOA, Obama delivered $1.7 billion in *cash*, literally on pallets, at the *start* of negotiatins with Iran. It was to "settle" a debt the US had with Iran's previous regime, the Last Shah, who *himself* did not want the Islamic government to recover the funds after he was ousted, because he knew how dangerous the new radical clerics were. To make things more outrageous, the debt was $400 million dollars. The rest of the 1.3 billion dollars was "interest" accrued over 40 years, paid in full by the US tax payers.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

Low information gawk. $1.3 / $1.7 billion of those funds were paid by US tax payers. The other 400 million was us "paying back" the Islamic Republic for money the last Shah sent in 1979. It was a direct cash payment. In Trump's current plan, the $300 billion come from surrounding gulf states and investors, and it is not paid to the government, but effectively like Marshall plan grants. Money does not become accessible until all the points of the agreement have been delivered by Iranians, including destruction of uranium, etc. Fundamentally different. But that nuance doesn't service your narrative, so you probably don't care.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

Clever, but misses the point. JCPOA paid out 1.3 billion of US tax dollars directly in cash to Iran, which was "accrued interest" on a 400 million dollar payment for military equipment by the last shah < 1979, directly before the Iranian Revolutionary Guard ousted the Shah.

In Trump's deal, the 300 billion dollar fund do not come from US tax dollars but from surrounding Gulf states and investors, who would rebuild Iran. Its not a cash payment. Fundamentally different.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@Hugolee88529964 @_InfoGram_ Seperate issue. There is about 20 billion in frozen assets. The 300 billion here is a separate reconstruction fund they would have access to when/if they destroyed uranium and met other demands.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@TedPillows Is it actually insane though? Is there any other company that could create more value than spacex long term?

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@JerryTurin @LaikenJordahl No one seems to consider that maybe the fish and wildlife would also like to leave earth before the sun burns us up in 0.5 billion years

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@AshCrypto Not mysterious at all. Open Interest built up steadily for months until the halving cycle hit mid-cycle drawdown. Always sharp selling pressure

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@frankvalentich1 @GertvanLagen This is my own (custom) HTF model of the halving cycle. Everything is going according to plan as far as I see it.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@SatoshiFlipper Where are all these CT bears you speak of? I see a few amongst a sea of Bulls.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@DipWheeler Yes, and liquidate your last $100 on a 0.01% price move in the wrong direction.

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@exitpumpBTC 🤣

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@HillelNeuer @WhiteHouse Rock solid

[Colin Brogan @BroganColin]

@crypto_with_seb Binance cartel might allow a counter-trend rally, but it would still all be retraced by Q4. If so, good entry would be the dump into supply, but these order walls could be spoofs and pulled at any moment.

[Milei in English - Official Account @jmilei_english]

For the first time in 123 years, Argentina has achieved a sustained fiscal surplus without being in default. We are one of only 5 countries in the world in this position.

LONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!!