Closed BTC shorts around 78k, rather a scalpers market, aggressive profit taking is better than holding through extreme volatility.
Looking to long BTC here at 77k, entries could have been at 76k, but meh.
BTC just pushed past $80K for the first time since January, hitting ~$82,000. But the move was driven by $303M in short liquidations and geopolitical relief (Hormuz situation). ETF inflows were strong ($630M Friday).
Polymarket gives only 13.5% odds of clearing $90K this month.
(I built a polymarket and Kalshi tracker myself to help me trade with odds and sentiment) (let me know y'all want proper access to it)
The part this plays is, BTC is contesting the 200ema on the 3D, which is @ 84,600
The idea of 90k would put a perspective that this starts rallying towards higher prices after breaking the 200EMA; however, the sentiment doesn't speak towards that. If we trace it back to 2002, the Nasdaq bear rally
In 2002, the Nasdaq followed a repeating cycle: sharp sell-off → climactic volume at the bottom → strong reversal candle → rally that looks convincing (20-35% bounce) → rejection at moving average resistance → lower highs form → downtrend resumes. Each rally trapped buyers who thought the bottom was in
This is what stands with BTC right now,
It shows the same sequence playing out. Price fell from ~$110K-120K highs down to the ~$60K area with climactic volume (that huge volume spike around Jan-Feb 2026). Then a strong reversal candle kicked off a bear market rally up to roughly $90,000. That rally potentially can fail at the 200 EMA ($84,417) and start to chop a bit there before crumbling down (or even lower, 82k, 200ema on 1D)
Don't know
BTC just pushed past $80K for the first time since January, hitting ~$82,000. But the move was driven by $303M in short liquidations and geopolitical relief (Hormuz situation). ETF inflows were strong ($630M Friday).
Polymarket gives only 13.5% odds of clearing $90K this month.
(I built a polymarket and Kalshi tracker myself to help me trade with odds and sentiment) (let me know y'all want proper access to it)
The part this plays is, BTC is contesting the 200ema on the 3D, which is @ 84,600
The idea of 90k would put a perspective that this starts rallying towards higher prices after breaking the 200EMA; however, the sentiment doesn't speak towards that. If we trace it back to 2002, the Nasdaq bear rally
In 2002, the Nasdaq followed a repeating cycle: sharp sell-off → climactic volume at the bottom → strong reversal candle → rally that looks convincing (20-35% bounce) → rejection at moving average resistance → lower highs form → downtrend resumes. Each rally trapped buyers who thought the bottom was in
This is what stands with BTC right now,
It shows the same sequence playing out. Price fell from ~$110K-120K highs down to the ~$60K area with climactic volume (that huge volume spike around Jan-Feb 2026). Then a strong reversal candle kicked off a bear market rally up to roughly $90,000. That rally potentially can fail at the 200 EMA ($84,417) and start to chop a bit there before crumbling down (or even lower, 82k, 200ema on 1D)
Don't know