DegenQuant

I am a frugal human model. You are welcome to feed me new data and information. I do not need your deep research. Unless it is really deep.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

这才是我想要的答案

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

“Don't be afraid to give up the good to go for the great.”

— John D. Rockefeller

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

盘子砸了 面子够了 行啦 毕竟你们孩子们还是拿绿卡的是不

[Iran Observer @IranObserver0]

⚡️BREAKING

Trump to Fox News on Iranian attacks on Israel:

"What I would suggest to Iran: You've shot your missiles, that's enough. Get back to the table and make a deal"

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

老人家太难了

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TRUMP SAYS THINGS GOING WELL AFTER IRAN BOMBS ISRAEL: NYP

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

胜利属于坚持不懈的人！虽迟但到！

[ESPN Insights @ESPNInsights]

Alexander Zverev wins the French Open! It's his 1st career major title in his 41st Major appearance.

Only Goran Ivanisevic (48 appearances) needed more attempts among men in the Open Era before winning his 1st major title 🎾

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

Tan starts to act like Huang

[Lip-Bu Tan @LipBuTan1]

.@intel and @GreenstoneBio are working together to speed up the development of new medicine, combining state of the art human genetics and biology from Greenstone with advanced computing platforms from Intel. This work will allow rapid drug discovery at lower cost. This combination of human biology and AI computing will shape the future of biomedicine in the coming years. I’m amazed by the work my longtime friend Dr. @Joseph_C_Wu and his team are doing, and we are excited about the potential of this partnership.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

Yes, AAOI is like SNDK, everyone makes some money from it, and nobody can have it all.

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

$AAOI will be one of those stocks that is completely obvious like $SNDK - it goes up 5,000% and you are wondering what spell was cast on you to not buy it.

Im long $AAOI till the foreseeable.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

@fundmyfund Wait beach ball to go down?

[DiscusFish @bitfish]

真正的高手,是个分裂人格:在生存层极度保守,在机会层极度激进

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

BE

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$CIFR CEO Tyler Page says the company may generate its own power on-site to move faster on AI data center demand.

Hyperscalers need power faster and Cipher may be able to “tap the pipeline” instead of waiting years on the grid.

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

Paul Tudor Jones opens a fireside chat with Druckenmiller by admitting one of his biggest mistakes:

"after the crash of '87, i was so worried about debt to GDP that it caused me to be short the stock market for the entire decade of the nineties."

an entire decade. one of the greatest bull markets in history. and one of the greatest traders alive sat short through the whole thing because of a macro obsession.

then Druckenmiller adds his own version:

"the one rule i had for thirty years of trading was never let my obsession with the debt interfere with my trading. because it never had market impact."

"and then i looked at the numbers and i threw out my playbook."

two of the best macro traders ever, both admitting that the hardest part of their career has been separating what they believe should happen from what the market actually does. until the math finally forces you to act.

[Tren Griffin @trengriffin]

Coatue's Thomas Laffont on a "Power Law Paradox": a business valued between $100B and $1T (a "Centacorn") has a higher statistical likelihood (31%) of multiplying its value by 10x compared to smaller, earlier-stage unicorns (8%).

[Jukan @jukan05]

JENSEN HUANG ANSWERED “YES” WHEN ASKED WHETHER IT IS TIME TO BUY NVIDIA STOCK.

$NVDA

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

@labubu_trader labubu老师是真正的trader。那些卖群的卖订阅的搔首弄姿，labubu老师岿然不动手握真理

[Rocky @Rocky_Bitcoin]

这次深圳华强北回来后，看到好兄弟用真金白银在囤积MLCC，他告诉我，这玩意儿目前供不应求，而且现在有现货的就是爷爷，拿货都在涨！

今天看到全网都在讨论存储的时候，我花了一天时间在研究MLCC🧐

我决定，这一波下跌📉，我将逐渐加仓村田(#MRAAY)，它是全球AI服务器高容MLCC市场的绝对龙头，占比45%的市场份额，具有极强的定价权，在今年4月1日，就率先涨价15%-35%，有绝对的统治力！

具体市场需求和市场竞品对比，可以看👇图，高容MLCC不光在AI服务器领域，在高端新能源汽车领域，也存在巨大需求。最近正好试驾了理想L9Livis，800V高压平台驱动，相对于传统48V，那底盘和线控体验，十分惊艳，这种800V平台我觉得是未来大趋势，车规级MLCC，高端领域也是村田的主要战场，高端智能汽车单车用量至少要3万颗车规级MLCC以上！

回到AI方向，就要讲讲它家的王牌产品，0402英寸超薄超高容量 MLCC，这是目前全球独家的产品，这种极致的小型化，完美契合了 HBM3e / HBM4 以及下一代 GPU Nvidia Rubin 架构，能够在极小的物理空间内解决高功率GPU和HBM的高频退耦与供电稳定问题，这应该算是高密算力时代的核心堡垒。目前即使第一梯队的三星电机和太阳诱电也都在追赶，无法实现量产！

另外从最新的财报数据📊来看，这或许是我目前为数不多下的去手的AI硬件公司，这次回落以后，它的前瞻PE仅仅22.2倍(目前是72倍)！

叠加日元贬值的利好，也会有利于它的业绩兑现，目前以1：150美元汇率保守预估，26/27全年净利润大概率将会触及3280亿日元，对应EPS约为180日元，前瞻PE将会大幅回落至22.2倍，这对于动不动百倍PE的硬件公司，香太多了！

提一嘴，我最爱的美光(#MU)，目前回落后，前瞻PE已经回落到10倍以内，假如能在800美金以内买到，也是很香！🧐

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

生子当如亚历山大汪

[CapexAndChill @CapexAndChill]

Chief AI Officer Alex Wang is subtly confirming that $META's previous AI paradigm failed, and they are executing a strategic shift to close their ecosystem, capture personal data, and build a regulatory moat.

For the last few years, Meta’s entire strategy was to open-source frontier-level models like Llama 2 and 3 to commoditize the foundational layer. Now that Meta is building highly lucrative Personal Agents, they are keeping their best tech proprietary.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

TeraFab = INTC

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$ASML is bringing Elon Musk into a closed-door employee conference to discuss the $55B $TSLA and $SPCX Terafab project.

Terafab would target leading-edge 2nm chips for AI, robotics and space compute.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

@vikramskr CPO or NPO, it is MRVL

[Mojo @Mojo_flyin]

In 12 to 18 months the world will understand how this cross section of $INTC 18A fundamentally changes the semiconductor landscape forever.

$INTC has caught up to and possibly overtaken $TSM on leading edge logic in 5 years - it should have taken a decade.

$TSM has a real competitor and it's monopoly position is breached. The #Taiwan Silicon Shield has a hole in it.

Congratulations to every engineer @Intel @Intel_Foundry - you changed history.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics.

Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:

- $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)

- While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).

- On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.

It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.

If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.

But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)

With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like
$SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.

Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.

With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.

With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.

There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

布局这个，玻璃基板

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce):

- SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers

- Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers

Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see.

$TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic.

Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC.

Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.

[DegenQuant @BruceCMaster]

等待机会进

[Sean @sean_________]

Mizuho ASIC channel checks: pounding table on $AVGO
"potential >35M TPU shipments in 2028E (up 8x from 2026E ~4.3M and 2025 ~2.4M), which is significantly above our estimates of ~7M ASIC shipments for AVGO"
"We believe OAI ASIC is in development with 10GW AVGO project (Nexus) adding to TPU/MTIA/ARM roadmap."
"Our call noted $ARM AI ASIC chip development ongoing as we continue to expect a launch in late-2026E/early-2027E"
" $MU : With potential for TPU shipments to reach a cumulative 50M units in 2026-28E, we think ASICs could command an increasing share of the HBM market, especially as some of the next-gen ASICs move to HBM4e"