Bruce Tamanaha

[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

@DigitalRoamad Right as always.

[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

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[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

For those not paying attention (and I don't blame you) ... you'll want to pay attention to this.

Trump has nominated Stephen Miran to be the Federal Reserve Board. Steveo wrote a consequential white paper last fall that calls for devaluing the dollar as a way to rebuild manufacturing (it won't, by the way) and concedes that losing reserve currency status is a risk.

He also concedes that other nations are likely to move away from the USD (on that he is dead-ass right).

Problem is: Trump is telling the world that he is gunning for a Fed that is pliant and only knows one mission: Make Donald Trump Happy.

We are going to get a Trumpophile as Fed Chair. Period. And here's how this is going to play out (save this tweet):

1. The world is going to assume that Fed independence is dead. The world will be right.

2. The Fed will cut interest rates based on economic data so heavily massaged it will look like it just got a happy ending at the Magic Hands Tuggy Pully Massage and Economic Bullshit Factory. (Note: Until we get the new Trump Fed Chair, interest will likely not be cut this year. If they are cut, it will be a 0.25% in September just to shut Trump up, and then no more cuts until Powell is gone. At this point, Powell is shaping his legacy, and he's not going out as the Chair who exacerbated inflation amid Trump's inflationary tariffs, which are about to start biting asses hard over the remainder of the year.)

3. Those cuts once Powell leaves will not be justified because the US economy will be in stagflation (if it's not already there now). A shitty job market, but rising inflation that does not justify lower rates (inflation will move to 4% or above, and 2026 could be a very ugly year).

4. Foreign investors are going to increasingly back away from the USD,shifting money to Europe and Asia. USD will fall in value relative to other currencies, helping fuel inflation at home (America cannot and never will be able to produce everything we consume. We MUST import a lot of stuff, and those higher prices will drive inflation in everything from electronics to housing to food.)

5. Stocks will begin to struggle. Right now, tech is pretty much the only sector driving the market higher. When tech cracks - and it will - boom goes the dynamite.

6. Foreign investors backing away from the dollar means demand for US Treasurys falls... which drives up market-based interest rates, which are way more important to daily living than the Fed Funds rate. Higher interest rates on US debt mean debt-repayment costs (already $1 trillion annually) will grow even larger, creating a negative feedback loop that keeps foreign investors from putting money to work in the US, and keeps pushing market interest rates higher.

7. The Fed and Treasury will once again begin loading up their balance sheets with US debt because there are not an adequate number of buyers. In essence, the Fed is creating new money to fund its purchases, meaning it's increasing the money supply... and that's inflationary.

8. All of this is great for bitcoin ... inflation, a weakening dollar, and the increasing money supply will make bitcoin randier than a rabbit on Viagra.

And THAT is what you can expect as Trump begins shaping a Federal Reserve Board that is no longer independent but one packed with concubines eager to please a president who understands economics about as well as that rabbit understands Viagra.

Take away: Own bitcoin and other major crypto. Own the fuck out of (especially) gold and industrial commodities. And diversify a good bit of your cash away from the USD.

[SWEAT💧 @SweatEconomy]

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Get Moving.

[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

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[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

@DigitalRoamad Right on the money as always.

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

I know some people will react with “fuck those socialists!” But facts America needs European buyers. EU is the largest consumer bloc on the planet - 2x the size of the US population.

This would just add fuel to the stagflationary economy we are now in (and more than a year ago I predicted was coming).

More bad news for the dollar, if Europeans are really done with US products. Means a weaker U.S. economy and it means less demand to convert the various European currencies into dollars… falling demand = falling price for dollar vs other currencies = more inflation in America.

[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

@DigitalRoamad Thanks, Jeff, for mentioning Moneycorp. I couldn't remember their name.
I can use them and Wise to buy Swiss Francs.
On the mark as usual.

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Death…

How many people will heed this tweet? How many people will slough it off?

Those who listen will survive.

Those who don’t are destined to see their wealth shrivel.

I’ve been saying for a long while now that the USD is going to see record lows that will shock the markets - and that has abysmal impacts on American wallets.

Now, Deutsche Bank and Goldman are offering the same warning.

“The preconditions are now in place for the beginning of a major dollar downtrend,” Deutsche Bank analysts George Saravelos and Tim Baker wrote seen by MarketWatch in a note, pointing to a huge shift in U.S. trade policy and a global reassessment of U.S. geopolitical leadership and predicting the end of a “higher for longer” dollar.

“Given the historical developments of the last few months our EUR/USD forecasts now anticipate the dollar entering a long-winded downcycle,” the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote, adding that, "in a world of extreme uncertainty and rapidly shifting policy norms, the risk of market dislocations and regime breaks remains high."

The warning echos the concerns of Goldman Sachs’ head of FX who told Bloomberg this week that the U.S. dollar’s weakness is “here to stay,” as the world adjusts to the new tariff-based international trade order established by Trump

Those who are Trump fanatics will scoff because they seem to believe his economic advisers are brilliant (his advisers are laughed at on Wall Street.) But if you’re in that camp - hey, i truly do wish you luck in enduring what’s approaching. I really do hate seeing people struggle financially, regardless of political affiliation or beliefs.

If, however, you realize that all is not right and that something is fundamentally off in America now - then buy bitcoin. Load up on it. The prices incoming will daze and confuse as they sail past $200k this year.

Load up on gold - some physical coins like old 19th and 20th century gold bullion used in global trade. Everything from 1/10 oz to 1 oz. Mexican gold pesos. Austrian gold ducats, French 20 franc roosters, etc. And an ETF for your brokerage account like Sprott Physical Gold (PHYS). And some miners like Newmont, Barrick, and a junior miner like G Mining Ventures (I put my IRL readers into G Mining several months back. They’re eating well.)

And go set up an account at Moneycorp and just convert a bunch of dollars into Swiss francs and hold them in your account. You won’t earn any interest but you’ll recoup many more dollars than you started with when you convert back into USD at some point (you’ll very likely outpace US inflation over time). If anyone there asks, tell’em Jeff Opdyke sent you (I get nothing from Moneycorp, but they’ll be happy to hear I sent you.)

Again, most people won’t have read this far. And others (most) will wrongly assume King Dollar remains king.

Those who know my track record with big predictions over the last 15 years will know how serious I am about this - about the death of king dollar - and they will begin to prepare for a very different financial world that is not built around USD…

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

It’s almost like I know what I’m talking about…

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Every day the story changes.

There are serious people within the Trump admin who have a vision of the US weakening the dollar (to help manufacturing) but at the same time convincing countries to keep the USD as the world reserve currency ... and that is a seriously hard needle to thread, since both of those are generally in opposition. But they believe it's possible.

And maybe it would have been.

Not now, though. There is nothing about the Trump admin that is stable or that any country can rely on as bedrock truth. It's all a jumble of cats, and all these countries are looking at America and thinking: Who the fuck is in charge of herding these cats?

The answer is clearly no one.

So, the world is giving up.

It's why you're seeing EU and China hook up ... EU and India in a free trade deal ... China and Vietnam and Cambodia... and China with Japan and S. Korea (three countries with hatreds going back centuries, yet Team Trump brought them together in a tripartite trade deal).

It's why Germany is now leading the re-armament of Europe - they're saying "fuck the US security blanket; who can trust that America's current administration won't go rogue next Tuesday?"

The revolution is here, and it's being televised. And the dollar will be the big, big loser.

Elect a clown, expect a circus.

Sad but true.

Prepare your finances for what's to come.

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

So many shallow thinkers will reflexively say “so what? It’s Mexico and Brazil. Who gives a fuck.”

But deeper thinkers who can connect dots will see the bigger picture emerging.

It’s not a pretty picture for the USD… which means it’s not a pretty picture for Main Street as this trend continues to play out…

[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

@DigitalRoamad You explained it well, Jeffo. Some people will never get it. Even when they can't afford it.

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

And just to be clear on this... this is going to lead to a weak dollar, which is EXACTLY what I told you Trump was pursuing back in some January tweets when I explained why Trump is purposefully trying to destroy the economy for his own agenda.

This destroys the lie about the "full faith and credit of the United States government." That lie was first exposed in 1933, when the US defaulted by repricing gold (US bonds were repayable gold, and their face value dove when gold was repriced) ... and again in 1971, when the US defaulted as part of Nixon taking USD off gold standard.

This will be default #3 in less than 100 years.

This is purely a weak-dollar play.

Trump wants a weak dollar to reinvigorate manufacturing at home. He wants countries to have a reason to "Buy American," and to do that he wants a weak dollar to make US products more affordable overseas - a laudable goal.

But there is an inflationary side-effect. A weak dollar raises the cost of imports that America, a consumer-driven economy, demands.

And before ANYONE tells me, "We will just build what we need at home," save yourself from the wasted the typing. America DOES NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY NOR THE RESOURCES TO BUILD EVERYTHING WE CONSUME AT THE BUSINESS AND PERSONAL LEVEL!!! Please understand that. The simple example is that we have nowhere to grow all the coffee we need for the 13,000 Starbucks that exist in the America, plus the 10s of thousands of other places to buy coffee. That same logic applies to hundreds of products that go into the items we consume in the US. They MUST be imported - period. And their costs will be higher if the dollar is weaker. It's the simply calculus of currency markets.

Impacts:

Gold rallies because a "weak dollar" would be the new US policy - and gold is the anti-dollar. As the USD side of the see-saw goes down, gold by definition goes up.

Inflation becomes more entrenched.

Fed would actually have cover to RAISE rates, not lower them (opposite of what Trump wants) because if the US restructures its debt to impose lower rates on existing bondholders, then the interest payments that the US now pays will decline, which means the Fed can impose higher Fed Funds rates without worrying as much about the impact on Uncle Sam's interest payments.

US dollar weakens globally, so you absolutely want long-term exposure to non-dollar assets, either foreign blue-chip dividend stocks or foreign rental real estate. The foreign currency you collect in dividends or rental payments = more and more dollars because when you repatriate the foreign cash, it buys more greenbacks at home (a way to help offset inflation).

Crypto will be in a weird position. A weak dollar is good for bitcoin, but if the Fed does see this as a chance to raise rates to combat inflation, then will that be enough to undermine bitcoin? I'm not sure about that one. Depends on how the market sees the tug-of-war between higher interest rates and a weaker dollar.

As I told you back in January, Trump will establish the Mar-A-Lago Accord (partly because he wants to live on eternally, and the world will write about the Mar-A-Lago Accord for decades if not longer). This push to force US bondholders to accept lower interest rates, and the push for a weak dollar is part of that accord.

I can see the merits in what Trump wants, and I understand Trump's end goal (bringing manufacturing back to the US). But there's also the whiff of a banana republic-style leader who is pursuing an economic agenda that is helter-skelter - throwing spaghetti at the wall and hoping some of it sticks, but at the risk that all the different proposals create unintended side-effects that rip apart the economy in unexpected ways.

How the global markets react to a US debt default is going to be very interesting. And how all the moving pieces of Trump's "destroy the economy for the better" agenda dovetail will define the rest of this decade.

If it's buttery in its smoothness, all will be grand. America will have a more robust manufacturing sector and potentially a reinvigorated middle-class with more opportunities for middle-class manufacturing jobs. Though inflation will be more prevalent, higher-paying jobs will offset some of that to a degree.

And if it's smooth as broken glass... shit is going to get exceedingly ugly in America and parts of the world. Think: collapsing dollar, continual debt restructuring, full-on default in which bonds are simply not paid, hyperinflation in the tens of percent (maybe hundreds of percent).

Either way, gold sees $4,000 or more this year, and well over $10k by the end of the decade.

And the dollar falls sharply over time, likely toward all-time lows on the dollar index (DXY) below 70. The DXY is 104 today... I'd say somewhere in the 45 to 65 range is the likeliest destination for the DXY over the remainder of the decade. (That's based on a buttery scenario; in a broken-glass scenario the dollars in your wallet will be the prettiest toilet paper you've ever owned.)

[Bruce Tamanaha @BruceTamanaha]

@DigitalRoamad You hit it perfectly.

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Apparently the stock market is no longer a mechanism that looks ahead to assess value - it looks backward at what has already passed.

For anyone new to this game, the stock market NEVER looks backward. Absolutely fucktarded to suggest that investors today would suddenly think as a group, “You know what - the economy was really in the shit FOUR YEARS AGO, so I better sell now!”

Such stupidity is blinding. If there is anyone - ANYONE - who buys that explanation for why stocks are down today, I know a Nigerian prince who is willing to share a $10m inheritance with you!

An Absolutely stunning level of bullshit to avoid being hit with the rightful claim that you, Trump, are the ONLY reason financial markets have gone all Thelma and Louise over the cliff…

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Not that a lot of people pay attention to this but…

Farm bankruptcies are surging. Deportations and tariffs are going to worsen the plight of family farmers.

Farm debt is huge. Access to credit is tightening and receipts are falling because workers are vanishing and countries are retaliating against Trump by specifically aiming their tariffs at Red State farm country. This has huge knock on effects across the economy, one of them being even higher food inflation.

Just keeping you updated on the storm that’s approaching…

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Just another lesson in how dots connect so folks understand knock on effects that not everyone thinks about…

25% tariffs on Canada. One of the products hit: Potash - a fertilizer 98.69% of people don’t give a rat’s ass about.

Alas, potash is one of the Big 3 components of fertilizers used in industrial ag all over the world and particularly in the US.

The U.S. sources nearly 90% of its potash demands from the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, which is the largest source of potash in the world. (The other two substantially smaller players are Russia and Belarus.)

The obvious impact is that farm-input costs in the US rise. So farm produce prices rise at your neighborhood Piggly Wiggly.

But the knock on effect hits your car.

U.S. corn growers are the source of Ethanol, a gasoline additive that effectively increases U.S. gasoline production by about 1 million barrels per day.

In a world where rising costs for potash impacts crops, food supplies obviously take precedent, and ethanol loses. Which means the U.S. gasoline supply shrinks just as we’re heading into car-driving season (summer road trips). A diminished supply of gasoline jacks up prices at the pump (a supply/demand thing).

So tariffs on Canada hit the potash industry, which hits US farmers, which raises the price for crops including corn, which then hits the ethanol sector, reducing gasoline supplies, which then sodomizes your wallet at the local Gas -n-Go, where you’re filling up so that you can head to Piggly Wiggly, where grocery prices then sodomize your wallet for a second time.

Just another example of why I say “connect the dots.” Economic flows don’t happen in a vacuum. They’re like water in a flood - the impacts end up in places you don’t always think to look.

These kinds of dots let you contemplate what’s likely to come with Econ data reports, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s reaction to everything unfolding.

(PS: yes, Trump lowered the potash tariff to 10% recently and called it a win for American farmers. But A) 10% is still a higher input cost that will hit ag and energy, and B) if the Yankees lose to the Red Sox 2-0 instead of 5-0, does the loss count as a win in the record books?)

[Jeff Opdyke (jeffo) @DigitalRoamad]

Stocks getting hammered again. So let me share a truly dark idea.

To be clear, I am not predicting this. But it is within the realm of possibilities.

I’ve noted for more than a month now that Trump is purposefully crashing the economy to force the Fed to cut interest rates. That’s even turning up in mainstream thinking now.

But what if we’re missing a bigger game?

What if Trump is chasing a replay of the Soviet Union collapse? That move would allow America’s oligarchs to use their wealth to take over everything of importance that collapses.

What would that look like?

Destroy asset markets like stocks and crypto and housing, and pretend it’s just a temporary thing while you “reset the economy.”

Destroy the labor force by, say, axing the federal workforce, knowing that will rip through the private sector workforce and amplify the job loss and the personal/corporate bankruptcies.

Impose illogical tariffs on every country and every product, regardless of obviously negative impact, killing businesses and farmers, and generally fomenting a cataclysmic global economic tsunami.

Asset values would collapse. The labor force would be in shambles. Government would be crushed to a size that fits a dog house made for a Chihuahua.

And the billionaire class would have the wealth to gobble up key parts of the economy - no different than Russian oligarchs after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Again, I’m not saying this IS the plan. I’m saying it’s an interesting thought experiment and one that has some legitimacy to it, given the narcissistic nature and king/dictator desires Trump clearly harbors.

For me, yet another reason one wants to own gold and Swiss francs as wealth/lifestyle. (For the record, Homestake Mining - the largest gold miner in the 1930s - was one of the best assets you could have owned across the Great Depression).

Anyway - have a great Tuesday…