Bruce

$ETH Holder & Quant

[Bill Qian @billqian_uae]

投资里最难的，不是发现赢家，而是熬过回撤
-最近，对于加密圈来说，可能每一个人都不舒服。第一是因为大家的持仓回撤严重；第二是因为我们的加密持仓跑输了其他各大资产类别，仿佛是 2022 年的重现。可能，我们需要静下心来，重新审视自己的选择和投资组合。
-关于第一点，回撤严重，我想引用我特别尊敬的一位老师James Anderson的一句话：“波动率根本不是有效的风险指标，事实上，它很可能正好是风险的反面。看看美国那 72 家真正伟大的公司，每一家都经历过至少一次、甚至多次股价 40% 以上的回撤。这些时刻，其实就是市场给你的机会，让你弥补最初没买入它们的错误。在我看来，投资里最难的部分，不是发现这些公司，而是熬过它们的回撤。”
-我也曾接受过传统的金融教育，如今却越来越同意Anderson的话。其实类似的观点，霍华德·马克斯也提过，就是一些我们之前一直长期信任的思维钢印，可能从来都是错的。比如：回报是正态分布的；比如：波动率是代表风险的最好的指标。今天看来，这个世界的alpha是幂分布的，波动率从来都会误导我们对风险的判断。
-我想每个人都可以审视一下自己的投资组合，到底现在是痛苦的回撤，还是本金的永久损失？前者是波动，是给你补仓的机会，是让你在痛苦的煎熬后能够获得超额回报的代价；而后者（本金的永久损失），则是自己需要去承认的错误。我个人的观点，如果是比特币的 30% 的回撤，那也许可以称之为“痛苦的回撤”，是市场再给你补仓的机会；如果是某一个小meme币的 90% 的价格下跌，那更有可能是“本金的永久损失”。
-关于第二点，加密持仓跑输了其他资产类别。首先，我觉得每个人都要逐渐放弃自己的路径依赖，不要觉得加密货币这个资产类别永远就是天下第一。曾经的中国房产持有人、中国互联网公司投资人，也有过类似的想法。我们要了解，任何资产类别都有成住坏空，都有春夏秋冬。每个人可以选择：a. 学会多元配置，如果你的仓位里同时有美股科技股、黄金，那你今年大概率不会太痛苦；b. 离开加密行业，承认这种波动和风险不是你想要的，学会与自己和解，只做自己能够接受的。就好像一个广州的包租公，可能他的资产长年都跑输英伟达、比特币，但是他跟自己和解了，觉得这就是他想要的生活，这个资产是让他晚上可以睡得好的资产，那就没问题了；c. 承认这种波动性是你为长期成功所需要支付的心理压力的门票钱，一口真气不散，头铁坚持下去。
-莫为危时便怆神，前程往往有期因。投资本身既是一个理财的过程，也是一种修炼自己的法门。希望我们每个人都在这个过程思考、犯错、和解和精进。

[SAT20 Labs @SAT20Labs]

testnet4上的brc20, 比如ordi和ordx，大家可以随意打一些，最快明天就可以尝试穿越到聪网上交易流通。

[蓝狐 @lanhubiji]

之前对于以太坊L2的发展局面一直感觉很拧巴，略有迷茫，直到最近@Lighter_xyz 的出现，仿佛打开了一扇窗，一下子看到了远处的青山和白云，这是一种拨云见日的感觉：lighter为L2蓝图提供了很好的样板。

Lighter的示范，可以预见未来会看到越来越多的L2应用链，尤其是高频的应用链，perp L2应用链，现货dex L2应用链，稳定币支付L2应用链，AI代理L2应用链，游戏L2应用链，社交L2应用链…..成百上千的L2应用链来临，会给以太坊生态带来真正的繁荣。

目前Lighter上线不久，交易活动规模一家已经远超所有通用L2的总和，其中包括base+arbitrum+op+zksync…….如果有更多的L2应用链涌现呢？这会是难得一见的盛况。

有两个预测，至于会不会成真，我也不知道，但这是概率不低的演化方向：

一是，通用型L2链持续存在，但很难壮大，base（虽然有coinbase支撑）、arbitrum等最终不敌lighter等L2应用链群狼，这些L2应用链群狼会逐渐蚕食通用L2份额；之前说的L2群狼战术，没想到不是通用L2的群狼，而是应用L2链的群狼，目前的样板已经出来了，狼群在路上了。一旦L2应用链群狼出来，不仅对Base和Arbitrum产生巨大压力，同样对其他高性能公链L1产生压力，这会是一场持久的竞争，很有意思。而一旦形成这种局面，最开心的莫过于以太坊，因为这会真正释放出体系作战的威力。

二是，OP和Zkysnc的路子可能是对的，它们其实早已经不单纯是通用型L2，更多走向了“L2链的基础设施提供商”，转向为定制化L2链提供服务（RaaS，rollup-as-a-service）。

如果L2应用链最终成为未来方向，如Lighter、worldcoin等等，那么，这对以太坊意味着什么？

一是，周天子诸侯割据的局面不会出现。不用再担心通用L2在壮大后自立门户，现在通用L2在安全方面寄生于以太坊L1，而一旦掌握足够庞大的流量和用户，必然会面临更大诱惑。而L2应用链这样的诱惑不大，一旦离开新的会填补空白，留在生态比独立出去更强，尤其是ZK系利用以太坊安全性有足够理由留下来，离开需要重建DA/结算，性价比低。除非一开始就独立玩，如Hyperliquid，但需要极强的团队能力和天时地利，且长期看，安全性不如L2应用链，后续Zk技术成熟后，构建独立L1应用链性价比变得很低（从构建角度，不从炒作角度）。

二是，L2应用链正在跟以太坊L1形成相互成就的关系。L2应用链，一方面自己捕获大部分的价值；另外一方面也会反哺一部分价值给以太坊L1，形成相互支撑的良性循环：以太坊L1为L2应用链提供安全基石，而L2应用链反馈以太坊价值，通过消耗更多ETH，提升ETH价值；ETH价值的提升，给L2应用链带来更大的安全（随着L2应用链的价值提升，也需要依赖更高的安全），这是真正共赢的关系。从价值捕获效率上看，L2应用链100%以太坊DA，更纯血，在相同blob空间下，Lighter贡献的eth烧毁高于通用L2。

如果Lighter能打开局面，未来会有越来越多的L2应用链，这会击破目前以太坊估值空间的天花板。以太坊能抵达的空间，远超人们的想象。还是之前看法，1万以下的ETH还是一块璞玉。（主观看法，没有客观，不是投资建议，市场变化大，每个人都要做好自己的风险管理和投资决策）。

[Michael Szerencsy @mszerencsy]

$SLNH might be the most undervalued AI infrastructure stock in the entire market.

At a ~$150M market cap, Soluna controls a 2.8 GW pipeline of clean, renewable-powered data centers built for AI + HPC compute.

Now here’s the kicker👇
$NVDA just paid ~$40 B for 5 GW of data-center capacity — that’s about $8 B per GW.

By comparison, Soluna’s 2.8 GW pipeline — if even partially built — could represent tens of billions in potential value. Yet the market values it like a rounding error.

They already have 1 GW built or under construction, a $100 M credit facility secured, and a new AI GPU hosting partnership with Hewlett Packard Enterprise using NVIDIA H100s.

Meanwhile, $IREN trades near a $19 B valuation for its AI compute operations — 125× larger than $SLNH — even though both are chasing the same AI + energy model.

The math is insane.
The setup is asymmetric.
The timing is perfect. ⚡

$SLNH = clean power × AI compute × massive undervaluation.

When the market catches up, this could be one of those “how did we miss it” moments.

[Joseph Lubin @ethereumJoseph]

I am 100% aligned with almost all of what Tom @fundstrat says here.

Yes, Wall Street will stake because they currently pay for their infrastructure and Ethereum will replace much of the many siloed stacks they operate on (e.g. JPMorgam probably operates on several siloed stacks from all of the banks they've acquired and absorbed over the years). They will need their heads fully in our game, because our game will be called ... Finance. They will need to become a TradFi company that operates on decentralized rails, and that means staking, running validators, operating L2s/L3s/etc, participating in DeFi and writing smart contract software for agreements, processes and financial instruments, etc. This will be a relatively easy transition for JPM because they've been exploring and using Ethereum technology for their private blockchain networks since 2014-2015. And many other financial institutions also have solid Ethereum experience.

The narrative of L2s cannibalizing L1 will very soon be shattered. See @lineabuild and Proof of Burn at https://t.co/vrKG3vRuUe for an example of how this will soon pick up momentum.

Yes, ETH will likely 100x from here. Probably much more.

Yes, Ethereum/ETH will flippen the Bitcoin/BTC monetary base.

Yes, Tom and I are friendly and get on calls intermittently to discuss elements of the strategy and ways we can collaborate in the general furtherance of the strategy even while we compete in highly differentiated ways over time.

The one quibble that I have with what Tom has been saying, and I keep telling him this: he is not nearly bullish enough.

But the real problem is that it is not possible to be bullish enough. Nobody on the planet can currently fathom how large and fast a rigorously decentralized economy, saturated with hybrid human-machine intelligence, operating on decentralized Ethereum Trustware, can grow. Trust is a new kind of virtual commodity. And ETH, the highest octane decentralized trust commodity, will eventually flippen all the other commodities on the planet. Decentralized trust is all you need.

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

周日冲高，周一瀑布。
全网 24h 爆仓近 10 亿美金，多单 >8 亿。

暴跌不是别的原因，
就是多杀多：追高的 + 上杠杆的，几乎全被爆掉。

ETH 多头刚被收割，
市场从不偏心，空头超 40 亿美金的仓位,迟早也会轮到。

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

📰 Ethereum Notes #1 – Aug 24, 2025

启动一个系列：每周记录 / 复盘 / 便于止盈逃顶

宏观 / 以太生态
•美联储鲍威尔讲话释放“鹰转鸽”信号，市场风险偏好上升，以太暴涨。
•SharpLink (SBET) 扩股融资购入 ETH，再宣布 15 亿美元回购。
•欧洲央行探索资产上链，重点考察 Ethereum 与 Solana。

个人复盘
•ETH 自上周4800 高点回落，部分仓位被洗出。
•周五反击浮盈大增后稍有回吐。
•周日再浮盈加仓，短期冲高后被大阴线击穿，大部分浮动仓止损，仅保留核心仓坚守。
•观察：市场通过冲高再猛跌收割流动性，短期破坏节奏。
•提醒自己：浮盈加仓需实质驱动力，核心仓必须死守。

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

/1 从 $DAT 公司数据推算短中期 $ETH 目标价——为何我在 7 月初用尽最后筹码，最近仍敢持续加杠杆？👇逻辑与下注理由

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

1/ All in 以太坊生态以来，收益涨到让我都有点不安。
借这个契机，梳理一下我的投资框架：核心是现货，延伸到期货、期权、ETF 和 DAT 股票。
弄清标的、看懂关系、拿捏退出节奏——这是提醒自己在牛市中走得久、走得远的关键.

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

@ViewsOfChris 这轮矿股最大的空头就是公司自己ATM来融资CAPEX, 没了上一轮矿机的紧缺+这轮全球算力不断增加，每TH盈利一直起不来，基本成了公司和市场一起收割线形思维的参与者了，除了23年初触底反弹那波，参与的话，还是高抛低吸比较安全.

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

🧵
1/7
Our take on SEC's Project Crypto and ETH impact:

$ETH ethereum outperforming the crypto since early April. Below shows ETH/BTC ratio and we can see the sustained rise

...fueling this is Wall Street running towards ETH as stablecoins created the "chatGPT" moment

ticker: $BMNR

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

交易所拟调杠杆, 留下这笔动荡时刻建下的百倍 ETH 多单纪念仓.
剧本已定, 行情已起, 等待它封神那天。💎🙌

#ETH #E卫兵 #DiamondHands

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_

[Bruce @Bruceinweb3]

Markets have taken a “watchful but not panicked” stance—gold just shy of ATH but cooling, oil’s spike retracing fast, and 10Y yields up but not screaming crisis. This implies traders expect only short-term volatility and are betting against drawn-out disruption.

Wallet flows show funds rotating between risk and safety, but lack of sustained momentum in either direction says it all. Equities even inch higher, confirming there’s no broad rush for cover.

This concept is supported by experts like @olivia45_ ,who possess a deep understanding of #Bitcoin's value and potential.
I will advise anyone to follow her @olivia45_