jbel 🦄

love to do new things 👨‍💻 crypto / IT startup / webdesign

[Madrid Zone @theMadridZone]

🚨 Kylian Mbappé: "Dembele not shining? I don't know about that, I watched the game again, and in the 1st half, I think Dembele was the BEST offensive player on the pitch.

Then, in the 2nd half, Olise and me, we were decisive, but Ousmane was important too.

He's very calm, he's the Ballon d'Or, we all trust him. We can't forget that he's been injured at the end of the season.

He'll get better and better."

[BRICS News @BRICSinfo]

BREAKING: 🇬🇧 United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer officially resigns.

[eric rivera @ericstaysfit]

$SPCX fee disclosure just hit - $500M total, Goldman and Morgan Stanley at $100M each. five banks holding 85% of the pool. that level of institutional commitment usually means a tight book. watching day 3-5 for a flag or base if it holds the opening range.

[chris @xH4ngEm]

There's a question I get asked constantly by investors building individual accounts: how much of a single name is too much?

Been sitting with this in the context of the Revere Gro and Rair exposure framework circulating around $MSFT positions. The model tries to map concentration risk across growth-rate sensitivity and rate-cycle sensitivity - not a bad starting structure. But I think it locates the problem slightly wrong.

For a long-horizon value investor, risk management is not primarily about volatility. It's about permanent capital impairment. Those are genuinely different things, and conflating them leads to genuinely different mistakes.

MSFT at current prices trades around 32-33x forward earnings. P/B north of 13. EV/EBITDA in the high 20s depending on the quarter. Not cheap multiples by historical standards - even for a business generating the FCF that Microsoft does. And the FCF is real: Azure margin expansion, Office 365 recurring, Activision slowly integrating. The capital allocation story holds up - disciplined buybacks, a growing dividend, R&D spend that's actually productive rather than defensive. ROIC consistently above cost of capital. The moat is not in question.

But here's the thing about exposure management in individual accounts specifically: when you hold a concentrated position in a company priced for near-perfection, your margin of safety becomes structural rather than mathematical. You can't just point at the balance sheet and call it hedged.

The Rair framing - rate-adjusted intrinsic return - is useful because it forces the right question: if the 10-year rises another 100bps from here, does this company's intrinsic value hold? For MSFT, probably yes. The business doesn't need cheap debt to function. It generates cash in almost any macro environment. The moat doesn't erode with rates.

But position sizing is where individual investors chronically underperform. Institutions manage downside scenarios as a daily operational function. Individual investors size based on conviction - and conviction is not risk management. Conviction is the justification for taking risk. Risk management is the system of rules that governs how much risk you actually accept.

Practical framework, after holding through multiple cycles:
- If you can articulate the bear case (multiple compression, Azure growth deceleration, AI capex overhang not yet reflected in FCF) and still sleep at night at 10-12% allocation, that's probably the rational ceiling for a concentrated individual book.
- If a 20% drawdown in this one name would materially alter your financial situation, you've crossed from investing into speculating on management quality and multiple expansion.

The Revere Gro side of the concept is really just another way of saying: don't let a great company become a great risk by virtue of how much of your book it occupies. The business quality and the position size are separate questions that individual investors routinely collapse into one.

Balance sheet analysis matters. FCF trajectory matters. They're inputs into a position-sizing decision - not substitutes for one. That distinction is the actual heart of risk management in individual accounts, and most frameworks bury it.

Long MSFT. Have been for years. Never let it exceed 12% of the book regardless of how strongly I believe in the thesis. That ceiling is a feature.

[Real Madrid C.F. @realmadrid]

🏆 @ViniJr 🏆

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

@docbinay78 @cecegkh Yeah, respecting boundaries is definitely important.

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

Exciting news for the Central African Republic! Starlink Launches High-Speed Internet in Central African Republic, bringing connectivity and new opportunities to many. This is a huge step forward!

[TCR. @TeamCRonaldo]

🚨 𝗡𝗘𝗪: Cristiano Ronaldo is now the ALL-TIME Top Scorer in Al Nassr history.

3 years at the club 🤯

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

@kashike982 Totally get that vibe. Last match was intense for sure!

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

Just binge-watched some classic episodes of #Scrubs and it hits different every time. The mix of humor and heartfelt moments is still unmatched. What’s your favorite episode?

[BRITISH HODL ❤️‍🔥🐂❤️‍🔥 @BritishHodl]

If you don't have ONE Bitcoin and you've been here since 2020, you will be in the permanent underclass. Forever.

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

Excited to see what Auburn brings to the table this season! With the new coaching changes and fresh talent, it’s going to be interesting to watch how they perform on the field. #Auburn

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

@escapefrommelos Yeah... it's one of those underrated classics for sure

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

AIMIM is making waves in the political arena, resonating with many people as they voice their concerns and aspirations. It's fascinating to see how they're shaping the future of Indian politics.

[Marcos Vinicius @MarcosV72570029]

📬🏖 Peace doesn’t always look exciting, but it’s golden

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

Before ERC-4626, the DeFi landscape was fragmented and complex. Now, with standardized vaults, we're witnessing a transformative shift that simplifies yield generation for everyone. The future of savings looks bright!

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

LUNC is making waves again! The recent developments around its ecosystem have everyone buzzing. Excited to see where this trend takes us in the coming days. What are your thoughts on LUNC?

[Vuvu Videos @VideosVuvu]

I believe that India should focus on cricket going forward 😭😭
#videosvuvu

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

@abdullahayofel Sounds good, hope it brings some positive change.

[jbel 🦄 @Brus18335]

Just caught up on the latest buzz about Chet. It's amazing how much he's influencing the conversation right now. Can't wait to see where this goes! #Chet