Martead Brin

Just a normal man. Just an innocent man.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Noticeable from the Genesis Ch 11 bankruptcy protection creditor list is
VanEck's New Finance Income Fund.
Claim of $53M. Fund sought high-yield income exposure in crypto lending.
Got $35M commitment from Fairfax county pension plan back in July 2022. https://t.co/bR5MZwTf1P...

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Another way to view the change in money supply and its effect on #BTC B performance.
For Global M2, pulling US, EU, Japan & China data converted to USD.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

#BTC B vs some traditional assets and a bucket of high beta plays over the last month.
High beta coming in hot to start the year, bitcoin miner etf up over 100%. Bitcoin still acting as beta/risk with US dollar weakening so far.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

#BTC B still tracking fairly close to net liquidity.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Let's say deep economic contraction is coming over the next year. Profits fall, UE rising, ISM PM goes sub 40, equities fall further. #BTC B has not been immune to these cycles before.
What's best case that bitcoin holds up?

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Small issue on this one with discount calculation. Correct GBTC premium/discount chart here.
Same trend/story. Discount at 38.61%.
Moved 5.62% on Monday.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Monday saw largest 1-day positive change in
GBTC discount since July 2021.
Likely interest to bid GBTC and short
#BTC B futures to capture potential spread/ possibility of GBTC discount closing.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Another useful data driven way to think about it https://t.co/ojE1TACmOh...
© Kantro @MichaelKantro • 1/8/23
The #HOPE cycle is moving along in order. How much economic pain will investors celebrate with the backward-looking focus of Fed policy?

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Lots of great data + analysis pointing to higher probability of serious recession/ economic pain coming 2H2023 or early
2024.
One of those being 3M10Y inversion curve that happened back in October. Higher probability of recession 12-18 months after inversion.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

#BTC B mostly correlated with with high yield corporate debt, small cap and growth stocks in 2022.
https://t.co/OQ1iwcVTDw...
Er Jurrien Timmer & @Timme..: 1/9/23
To understand just how difficult it was to find a place to hide in the markets last year,

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Days it takes for #bitcoin B price to recover back to peak across cycles. Base case is a
2013-2015 like market in current liquidity and macro conditions.
https://t.co/dOsQ2yKThD...

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

#BTC B price rallies from new lows continue to get weaker.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

A bonus, SPX fair value bands from @maxanderson based on @42macroDDale
Net Liquidity Model showing overall liquidity drain continuing.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Four #bitcoin B market dynamics I like to track across global M2, global central bank assets, VIX and DXY. All unfavorable or more
"bearish".

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Maybe better to compare this one to annual growth.
Global central bank assets vs #BTC B price https://t.co/dOsQ2yKThD...

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Do you count exchange users as adoption?
People who leave BTC on exchanges, don't self custody, never used on-chain transaction or used lightning, etc. Should GBTC and ETF holders be separate too?
Feels like there should be multiple adoption curves https://t.co/Ml1VtzatzD...

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Really yet to see a significant drawdown in
#BTC B hash rate or difficulty (from local highs) apart from China mining ban.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Major tech drawdowns from ATH catching up to #BTC B throughout December.
https://t.co/dOsQ2yLr7b...

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

#BTC # and DXY annual change.

[Martead Brin @BrynmoW]

Address data can be messy when estimating
current size and growth of user adoption.
Glassnode's estimated entities is another
view of adoption. Around 33M #Bitcoin B
entities today growing at 17% this year.