bryan

Buy risk assets & chill // Fintwit’s top honesty broker // Trading journal

[bryan @BryzonX]

We officially batted .1000 9/9 for every single position this earnings season with some doing better than others

Held into every earnings report without "derisking" a single share

Day after earnings report performance:

$MXL +76%

$OSS +57%

$VECO +25%

$AMD +23%

$SYNA +19%

$Q +10%

$POWI +3%

$HLIT +1%

$PENG bought post ER

All companies are firing on all cylinders and most are just breaking out of extremely high time frames

Every thesis has been posted publicly

[bryan @BryzonX]

@upand_right @gregory_FTA Will probably revisit it soon, just better places to park my capital imo

[bryan @BryzonX]

If you don’t have wafer content exposure during the shift to advanced packaging & 3D stacking you better get some

Up until this point the focus was on shrinking the size of a chip now they’re finally expanding the density and stacking them for the first time

The amount of wafer content per chip that is about to be used in these new chips is going to go parabolic

[bryan @BryzonX]

@upand_right @gregory_FTA I owned this a long time ago and vowed I will never own it again after that price action 😂

I hope everyone eats from it though l, I like the thesis

Management just loves tapping that red button

[bryan @BryzonX]

@AtlasShrug1 @gregory_FTA Besi will do well yes

[bryan @BryzonX]

@WidditCap @ThematicTrader Yes, so many companies will eat from this

[bryan @BryzonX]

@filiusveritatis @ThematicTrader $ADEA is a great IP pure play on hybrid bonding

I am not looking to chase ADEA here but if we get an entry opportunity I might be open to start a position

My original tweet was about the broader manufacturing process

[bryan @BryzonX]

Hybrid bonding is just a technique within the broader advanced packaging and 3D stacking process

I am a huge advocate for this advanced processing/3D stacking and have some exposure centered around this thesis

$Q for wafer content expansion

$VECO & $BRKR for advanced packaging equipment (VECO also sells hybrid bonding tools)

[bryan @BryzonX]

@gregory_FTA There’s so many ways you can play this thesis

Just make sure you have plays centered around this

[bryan @BryzonX]

@filiusveritatis I’m riding $Q

I have plenty of content about this stock on my page

[bryan @BryzonX]

One of my focuses for the recent pullback was adding to my $Q position

I've never felt more confident in a stocks ability to capitalize on the expansion of fab capacity coming online in the next few years

For decades, chip design innovation meant shrinking smaller transistors and higher density to improve performance and power but now you physically can't shrink a chip anymore

This has led to having to create a 3D chip and start stacking materials, which requires 2x-3x more content per wafer

This means Q will be scaling both vertically and horizontally creating a compound effect for their entire business

Volume (Horizontal): More mega fabs coming online means a massive surge in total U.S. wafer volume

Multiplier (Vertical): 3D chip stacking means $Q is selling 2x or even 3x more chemical content per wafer than previous generations

2x wafer count x 3x content per wafer = a compounding explosion in recurring revenue that the street is entirely mispricing

Pair this with the serious operating leverage that is about to hit the books

Qnity has spent the last several quarters front loading heavy capex to get their massive 385k sq ft Newark facility fully online

Those massive fixed costs are already paid for and now that mass production is starting, every single incremental dollar of high margin revenue flows straight to the bottom line

When you pair an exponential top line revenue multiplier with a fixed cost structure, you get a massive EPS explosion

And here's the kicker...

The world's largest tech giants are actively anchoring their U.S. supply chains to $Q right now

Qnity recently announced a major collaboration with $NVDA to co develop the next gen materials required for advanced packaging while simultaneously being locked into $AAPL American Manufacturing Program as a long term, trusted partner

Qnity’s newly opened facility in Delaware makes them the absolute, default sovereign hub for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing

Now remind me...

How is this only a $32B company?

[bryan @BryzonX]

@negligible_cap Bro

[bryan @BryzonX]

@679AYUH Let’s gooo Bob!

[bryan @BryzonX]

Bruker Corp $BRKR just hit a 52-week high and is up +7% today on a red day

Less than a week ago I shared my thesis publicly

The Dec $47.5 calls we opened are now up 2x & 30%+ in shares in just 6 days and now we are sitting in a comfy cost basis with 6 months left…

“Even if I hit you once, you part of my collection” - Hendrixx

Who got in?

[bryan @BryzonX]

I initiated a position in $BRKR

Here's my thesis:

At the core, what caught my attention was similar to my thesis around $VECO in which the complexity advanced packaging and next gen HBM now requires is demanding new tools for manufacturing these chips

Up until now, fabs grew by simply shrinking transistors on a flat, 2D piece of silicon (Moore’s Law)

Back then, traditional optical equipment could do the trick just fine but not anymore...

Now, because we cannot make transistors any smaller without running into severe physical limits, the entire industry is pivoting to vertical 3D stacking to get it done

Historically, Bruker specialized in high end physics and chemistry lab equipment. But they realized that the same fundamental physics used to inspect a molecule could be used to inspect a silicon wafer

So management saw the opportunity and made strategic pivots such as buying up niche market leaders right as advanced packaging was starting to appear on the horizon

One of these is even $VECO 's very own Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) business from Veeco in 2010 for $229.4 million in cash (nice little nugget)

For years, this sector within their business just generated steady, quiet revenue...

Now that Advanced Packaging and HBM has run directly into the exact physical bottlenecks that Bruker’s acquired portfolio was uniquely built to solve this division has now caught immense traction growing 20% YoY and is expected to accelerate

So where in the process does Bukers tools lay?

Since they have successfully built a diverse, deeply technical moat where they catch the foundry at every phase of the advanced packaging process they have a toll booth in many steps of the process

X-Ray Metrology

Shoots harmless X rays through the silicon layers to verify that the hidden wiring tunnels and small bumps inside the chip sandwich are perfectly formed

Atomic Force Microscopy

Uses a very thin needle only a few atoms wide to physically feel the wafer surface, ensuring it is flat enough to drop the next chip layer on top without any gaps

White Light Interferometry

Acts like a fast, 3D optical camera that uses light waves to rapidly scan millions of microscopic bumps and deep drill holes for layout defects in seconds

Nanomechanical Metrology

Physically pokes and scratches the microscopic layers of the chip with a diamond tip to test if the glue and metal bonds are strong enough to keep the stacked layers from peeling apart

TLDR: this company is very important to the entire chip manufacturing process to the giants such as $TSM , $MU , SK Hynix , Samsung, $INTC & more

As these companies build out billions of dollars in new advanced packaging plants globally, Bruker's four core tools are embedded right into the cleanroom blueprints

It isn't hard to wrap your head around how fast this division will be growing going forward

Here is where the alpha lies

Currently, their main lifesciences business makes up 90% of their sales and is in a deep trough (dragged down by temporary U.S. academic funding freezes and a soft China market) so the entire semi segment only makes up 10% of their sales

Underneath the hood management is aggressively cleaning up corporate costs while leaning into this high margin, hardware critical AI segment where they are currently gaining traction

Revenue hasn't hit the books yet, but the orders are already flowing in as it takes months to build, ship, and qualify these massive metrology systems

However, the leading indicator that i'm paying attention to is their book to bill ratio, which was above 1.0x for the third consecutive quarter proving demand is outpacing current supply...

You guys know I love my technicals as well.. and they look drop dead gorgeous

Following a major capitulation event, it has held up really well bouncing on a major uptrend and forming a double bottom while the moving averages are just starting to curl up 👀

I wanted to get this out to you guys earlier but this is a hot market, so look out for any dips for this name if you like what you hear to get positioned

I'm looking at this one as a tool booth company that benefits from the entire buildout of advanced packaging, this is also my intial thesis and will be added to along the way as I find more discovering

I would like to give a shoutout to @leveraged_cat for his now deleted post which triggered my research on this name (Give him a follow he's sharp)

NFA. DYOR.

[bryan @BryzonX]

@DavidFrankelM Nice David 💪

[bryan @BryzonX]

@Chartradamus Lookin Exotic for me >>>

[bryan @BryzonX]

@boring_invest Their relationship with Samsung’s foundry line is very underrated