Want to know something?
99.999999% of the ‘magic indicators’ you see out there only work on charts that have already been drawn.
They show them to you afterwards, when everything has already happened, selecting only the perfect signals.
In the real market, in real time, they’re absolutely useless.
Wow, what a revelation: there’s no such thing as a ‘magic indicator’.
What does exist is experience, price action analysis, risk management and discipline.
$SI looks REALLY good here
it has held incredibly well through the recent bloodbath, looks bottomed, and seems to be consolidating for its next leg up
and the fundamentals are insane:
• 60K holders in 1 week + 30K in a single day — first meme to do this in over a year
• $15M–$20M daily volume even through the pullback
• tokenized $NVDA rewards — i’ve personally received 5 figures worth in one week as the top holder
• massive mindshare: be it Trump and the who's who of tech talking about the AI to SI tech name change, or competing communities and opportunistic players trying to PvP the $SI token... everything is fueling mindshare for $SI
• CEX listings already rolling in, including https://t.co/K8joQQp6ON + https://t.co/uO4X2DkOme, with more likely coming
CEXs rarely list memecoins this early unless they think there's serious upside ahead
60K holders, insane volume, huge mindshare, real rewards + CEX expansion
and now the chart looks ready too
i think $SI has a VERY bright future ahead
don’t be surprised if this ends up being one of the biggest new memes of the cycle
Trump just announced that Europe has agreed to release a massive amount of diesel oil.
Diesel last week hit all time highs in the USA.
In California, numerous stations hit above $10.
pump/sol & pump/usd pairings, swapped some more solana into pump betting on weekly close > .0055 and .01+ shortly after
already 5x off bottom from summer & leading altcoin thus far this cycle
believe this breaking ATHs will raise ceilings for all new launches, still very underowned, yearlong accumulation & buybacks remain consistent with crosschain mobile app gaining traction
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other general market thoughts
zec 400 to 1600 in Q3, up from 40 in september of 2025, (500M -> 20B mcap) by far the top crypto performer of the past year, entering the double bubble turbulent area where price action becomes most volatile and blow off top ensues, i believe btc 2017 is best comp, aggressive uptrend+selloffs all year
btc eth & sol holding above range highs after good move off the lows from the summer, pa has been clean, no large liq runs yet but believe most are still offsides, think higher before pullbacks
hype & lit have been strong but recently sold off p aggro on robinhood perps integration news, believe this is the time period where it will make the most sense for hyperliquid & lighter to be aggressive with marketing, especially hyperliquid as i feel they have dominated but mostly exhuasted all of the liquidity of the crypto native cohort, hyperliquid has ~100k active traders? RH has 25M DAUs, want to see hyperliquid move aggressively into marketing towards more retail but also tradfi HNWI clients, am sure they are already thinking of ways to do this but is necessary step for them becoming 1T+ behemoth as Jeff envisions, partnership with Kraken on US integration is a big step
this is also the area where i expect a lot of builders to capitalize, HL builder codes are designed in such a way that retail frontends can build easily on top, believe gamified hyperliquid mobile apps will be some of the most successful crypto apps this cycle, similar to trading terminals success last cycle with onchain coins, social trading has been huge sofar with onchain coins, but PNLs on perps are much larger & whoever figures out how to tap that liquidity wins huge
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timing altcoins
zec uptrend started sept 2025
hype uptrend started jan 2026
pump uptrend started july 2026
ZEHYPERPUMP still strongest 3 imo
stating because i believe it will be important to be able to determine where different altcoins are in their market cycles, crypto does not trade one to one anymore, btc eth sol were all in downtrend for most of the year while hype outperformed aggressively, pump was in downtrend for a year straight while zcash pumped 20x, alt szns are an ever-rotating game, not something that happens all at the same time, being able to recognize when certain trends are beginning and others are ending is a necessary skill for compounding wins together
if i had to guess in terms of timing macro trends in three parts, id say zec is in its last third, hype is in its middle third, & pump is in its first third
it takes time for a base to build on assets before demand outweighs supply and uptrend begins & the opposite happens at tops when supply eventually outweighs demand
go look at old coinbase & robinhood charts, same trend diff timeframe
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anyway my point being i believe we are entering a new phase for alts doing well, onchain & cex alts, cex alts currently have extreme discounts because of how poorly they did last cycle, imo this is your opportunity for identifying gems in the piles of trash, because there are some out there and most still believe crypto is a scam
there is a lot of sidelined capital looking for things to bid, VCs & smart retail alike
the time to make your list of which coins to start buying is now, everything is floored
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TLDR:
Q4 bias: bullish, pullback + OI wipe in October, early bull market but late lev entries dangerous, high conviction spot positions safe
highest conviction: PUMP
invalidation levels: 74k, 73, .0034, 750, 95
concerns: rates/war/dxy strength
sentiments around $PONS is probably the lowest it's been in a long time
the closest comparable is $PUMP, a $2.7 billion market cap coin that's up 17% today
zoom out and look at the data:
- $PONS annualized revenue: $156.8m
- $PUMP annualized revenue: $463.6m
- $PONS market cap: $375m
- $PUMP market cap: $2.7b
this means PUMP is currently trading at 5.82x its annualized revenue while PONS is trading at just 2.39x
and everyone agrees that $PUMP is incredibly undervalued here by crypto standards
so how much more $PONS?
while PUMP is the dominant launchpad on Solana, PONS is the dominant launchpad on Robinhood Chain
if you think Robinhood Chain continues to remain relevant into the foreseeable future
you should be aggressively bidding $PONS here
META JUST TOOK THE CEO OF MONGODB
Mark Zuckerberg just announced current MongoDB $MDB CEO Chirantan “CJ” Desai is leaving MongoDB to join Meta Platforms $META as the head of its new Meta Enterprise Platform Unit
MDB stock is down more than 16% 🔴 in pre market trading on the news
China is weighing allowing domestic companies to buy $NVDA new RTX Pro 5500 with ByteDance reportedly considering an order of ~1 million chips as local AI demand outruns supply.
Nvidia says Chinese chipmakers have seen “unprecedented growth since 2022” so even a partial reopening could give it a path back into a market where its AI share fell from like 95% to nearly zero.
$SPCX Starship is about to cross a pretty big milestone with FAA approval now in hand for Flight 14 on Monday.
Flight 14 will carry 26 V3 Starlink satellites making it Starship’s first revenue generating mission.
i think there's something important i need to clarify about my trading style
especially for those who insist on copytrading me
i am a degen trader at heart
i do NOT expect to win all my trades
in fact, if i suddenly started winning everything, i'd be worried
because that probably means i'm playing it too safe
my entire strategy is built around finding and positioning early in the NEXT major narratives and metas
often before anyone cares
that means:
i will lose a LOT of trades
i will sometimes hold underwater positions for months
i will sometimes enter way too early
i will sometimes roundtrip some trades
and sometimes i'll get lucky and hit a massive winner almost immediately
that's the game
i'm not trying to make a comfortable 2-3x on a large cap
i'm a 'moon or bust' kind of trader
i'm hunting for the massively asymmetric wins
the 50x
the 100x
the 1,000x
because the math changes completely when you're playing that game
i'd happily buy 100 coins, lose on 80-90 of them and have just 10-20% become massive winners
because those few winners can more than pay for the entire basket 10 times over
that's also why you should NEVER blindly copytrade me
i trade very differently from most people on CT
a lot of traders post a coin with vague hype words or phrases like:
'trillions'
'flip the stock market'
'this is the future'
and that's about it
my entire personality on the other hand has been built around posting extremely wordy, in-depth thesis for even the smallest of my trades
i'd rather explain exactly why i'm buying
i usually lay out the thesis
the data
the catalysts
the comparable projects
and what i think is realistically possible
so people can actually understand the trade and form their own thesis
not blindly follow mine
and this brings me to something else:
my fomo wallet is my DEGEN WALLET
yes, it went from five figures to $28m+
yes, it became the #1 all-time trading account on fomo in just a few months
but none of that changes what the wallet was built for
it was ALWAYS my degen wallet
i have always been clear about that
and the fact that treating it that way helped me reach 8 figures in a few months is EXACTLY why i'm going to keep doing it — and i honestly do not think that should surprise anyone!
more trades
more risk
more losers
more shots at asymmetric winners
because i'm not trying to win every trade
i'm trying to find the handful of trades that matter
so please:
don't copytrade me
but if you're going to ignore that warning anyway
at least understand the game i'm playing before you start whining because one of my trades that you copied goes wrong
you're not copytrading a conservative portfolio
you're copytrading a degen strategy designed to hunt extreme asymmetry
know what you're getting into
🇮🇱 A huge chunk of the world walked out of the UN hall before Netanyahu’s speech.
This map shows the countries that left, stretching across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Europe and Asia.
Brutal visual.
Source: @AlanRMacLeod / Writer: Sol
BREAKING: We just caught another interesting trade.
President Trump just filed multiple July purchases of Microstrategy stock.
$MSTR has risen 83% since his purchase on July 24th.
Just a reminder that GLM 5.3 Flash, DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, Qwen 3.8 Next Flash, and even Qwen 3.8 27B are all outperforming (in both intelligence and capabilities) every model that was considered "frontier intelligence" in Xmas 2025 (just 10 months ago)
Opensource AI is on fire