Superbull

Markets with conviction 🐂 Semis, tech & the money behind the headlines. Opinions mine, not advice.

[Superbull @BullX43]

$NVDA's open-model bet just shipped.

Reflection — the Nvidia-backed startup founded by two ex-DeepMind researchers — debuted Beam, its first open-weight model, pitched as the American answer to China's best open models. Its own numbers put it even with GLM-5.2 on coding and math, but still behind Kimi K3.

The bigger swing is the business model: the "AI factory" — companies and governments running Reflection's models on their own hardware instead of paying OpenAI's API bill or routing data through Beijing. A 250-megawatt sovereign cloud with Korea's Shinsegae is already on the books, and Reflection has locked in $7B+ of $NVDA GB300 compute through $SPCX and $NBIS deals running to 2029.

Full weights and technical details land this month. The bar is set by Chinese labs — we'll see if the numbers hold once outside researchers can actually test it...

[Superbull @BullX43]

Ethics lawyers are coming for Musk and Luckey's Pentagon gig.

The pair are co-leading Hegseth's 120-day Project Meridian AI-weapons study. Former White House ethics chief Richard Painter: "They all want to sell stuff... it's not like he's doing it as a neutral public service." A former senior DoD official: "a massive conflict of interest."

The Pentagon says MITRE runs the study with safeguards in place.

And yesterday Anduril landed up to $2.9B from the Navy for its Baltimore shipyard — Trump on stage, days after Luckey joined the task force.

$SPCX $TSLA

[Superbull @BullX43]

$MSFT $NVDA — Nadella and Huang are sharing a stage today.

Microsoft is holding its first major Windows event in over two years in San Francisco, with Satya Nadella, Windows chief Pavan Davuluri and NVIDIA's Jensen Huang headlining — built entirely around AI that runs on the PC itself, no cloud required.

The centerpiece is the Surface Laptop Ultra: Microsoft's most powerful Surface ever, running NVIDIA's new RTX Spark SoC. That's a 20-core Grace CPU fused to a Blackwell GPU, up to 128GB of unified memory, and a claimed 1 petaflop of local AI compute — enough to run 120-billion-parameter models offline.

ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo and MSI are launching RTX Spark machines too. The one thing Microsoft hasn't said yet is the price — the leaks point to roughly $3,000 at the low end and $7,000+ for the top config.

Windows' answer to Apple silicon just stopped being a concept slide...

[Superbull @BullX43]

$TSLA $SPCX — Musk just killed the TSMC-runs-Terafab rumor himself.

Replying to an X post that said TSMC owning and running the AI chip complex was the most likely outcome, he wrote: 'No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that.'

Best case for $TSM, per Musk: 'Maybe TSMC subleases part of the Terafab if they want, but nothing more than that.' A sharp reversal from last week, when he said the two sides were in cooperation talks.

And $INTC isn't going anywhere — CEO Lip-Bu Tan told Bloomberg on Wednesday that Intel will stay involved in the project.

[Superbull @BullX43]

$NVDA's $20B Groq deal is now a court fight. Two ex-Groq engineers who kept their shares sued Oct 2 in Delaware, saying Groq's board sold its core tech to Nvidia at a "lowball" price without the required shareholder vote.

$17B in licensing fees to Groq plus $3B in Nvidia stock for the ~150-200 engineers who moved over, founder Jonathan Ross included. Groq calls it meritless. First court test of the reverse-acquihire playbook — and the DOJ is already asking if the licensing structure dodged antitrust review...

[Superbull @BullX43]

Ray Dalio just put a label on the AI boom: classic bubble, and the breaking part is getting close.

He was on a panel at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore this morning. His case is pretty simple — hundreds of billions of AI buildout financed with debt at rising rates, while all the market's gains sit in a handful of tech names.

And yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit fresh records this week. He put it this way: plenty of people say they're worth a billion dollars, "but OK, try to spend that." Paper wealth only counts when you can turn it into cash, and that's the moment bubbles get tested.

[Superbull @BullX43]

The 10-year is at a level it hasn't seen since 2002.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched ~5.34% on Monday, the highest since 2002, and stocks ripped anyway, with the Nasdaq closing at a record 27,477.31.

The Fed hiked 25bps in September to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. Markets now price ~76–77% odds of a hold at the October 28 meeting.

Jeremy Siegel says the "Goldilocks" jobs report gives Fed Chair Warsh cover to hold with the midterms days away.

Bessent says growth and spending restraint will "very quickly" start to bend the borrowing curve.

[Superbull @BullX43]

$NVAX had a 20% Monday, then reality showed up Tuesday.

Novavax ripped 20.1% Monday to $12.56, touching a 52-week high of $13.38, as plague fears spread after a suspected plague death at a Siberian research institute. The Trump administration is monitoring the outbreak.

Tuesday, it's giving it back: down ~10% to around $11.30.

Novavax is one of biotech's most heavily shorted names, so the panic bid and the unwind both come fast.

[Superbull @BullX43]

Ray Dalio is putting a clock on it.

In a Bloomberg TV interview in Singapore on Tuesday, Dalio repeated his warning that the US faces a debt crisis within three years, "give or take two," unless Washington changes course.

What worries him now is the buyers backing away. China doesn't want to keep accumulating Treasuries given the geopolitical and economic strains. Japan has lent a lot and wants its money back.

Japan's Treasury holdings fell $12.8B in July to $1.1T, while China's are down to ~$618B from a $1.3T peak in 2013. Foreign capital funds about a third of US debt.

He also flagged that hyperscalers are increasingly borrowing to fund their AI buildouts, so the debt binge isn't just a government problem.

[Superbull @BullX43]

$NVDA is knocking on $6 trillion.

Nvidia hit another record Tuesday near $243, pushing its market cap to just shy of $5.8 trillion. About $248 a share seals $6T.

The stock is up 28% this year and has added $1.2 trillion in value. It's the single biggest contributor to the S&P 500's 14% gain in 2026.

Foxconn posted its strongest-ever monthly revenue on AI server demand, BNP Paribas lifted its target to $345, and Morgan Stanley restored Nvidia as its top chip pick at $300.

[Superbull @BullX43]

@DeItaone But that’s what they want. If they didn’t want that they would have done something about it.

[Superbull @BullX43]

@ezralevant After it’s completed he will sell the plant it to them for $3 Billion in an effort to reduce the deficit.

[Superbull @BullX43]

@Emmaiid11 Go be free in Palestine.

[Superbull @BullX43]

@BertaProudDad MCGA - Make China Great Again. 🤯

[Superbull @BullX43]

Michael Burry just moved up his doomsday clock.

At the end of September he repositioned for a faster AI-bubble burst — buying puts on $MU with ~$500 strikes and $NBIS with double-digit strikes, both expiring June 2027.

With Micron around $1,075 and Nebius around $243, he's sizing up declines of more than 50% in both.

What shifted his timeline: an Ares Management piece arguing AI revenues may not support the industry's capex commitments — a risk the market is pricing at near zero.

$MU finished 2% lower Friday, $NBIS up 4.5%...

[Superbull @BullX43]

$SPCX's AI arm is getting renamed — again.

Early Sunday, Musk posted "No more AI." "SI." "It's better." Then the kicker: "SpaceX is a super intelligence company." Asked if SpaceXAI becomes SpaceXSI, he replied: "Yes, we will make that change."

Third name in eight months — SpaceX folded xAI into itself in February ($1.25T combined), then rebranded it SpaceXAI in July. No timeline yet, and no formal announcement — just Musk's reply.

The stock's already moving: $SPCX jumped 7.35% Friday to $158.96 — its best week in nearly two months — on three launches in under 13 hours, then added about 1% overnight Sunday on the rename talk.

Trump's Sept 29 order tells federal agencies to use "super intelligence" instead of "AI" across official documents and communications. Musk already caught himself at the White House last week — "the positive benefits of A.I. … S.I., pardon me."

[Superbull @BullX43]

@unusual_whales Is it because they went Woke?

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

Less than two hours until tonight’s Falcon Heavy launch of NROL-97 from pad 39A in Florida. Liftoff is targeted for 11:53 p.m. ET, and weather is 80% favorable → https://t.co/Lv1aXt0Ywq

[Superbull @BullX43]

@SpaceX You launch more times then I have meals. Insane. 🤯

[Superbull @BullX43]

I don't own shares but if I did, I'd be pissed.

Big insider selling at Cerebras this week.

$CBRS

COO Dhiraj Mallick sold 396,000 shares for $80.8M on Sept 29, cutting his stake in half. CTO Sean Lie sold $25.1M on Sept 25 — on top of $147.6M he sold in August.

Both under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans. The stock's down 20% over the last five days to $169.52.