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$BTC has now reached the 70K region I highlighted earlier this week.
The breakdown below 73.4K and failed reclaim of 74K kept the bearish structure intact, with sellers eventually pushing price into our anticipated downside target.
Now comes the interesting part.
BTC is testing the Weekly 200 EMA around 69.7K, while both the 1H and 4H RSI are deeply oversold. That creates the conditions for a potential relief bounce, but it doesn't confirm a reversal.
If buyers step in, 72K is the first resistance to reclaim, followed by 74K.
If support fails, the Weekly 200 SMA around 68K becomes the next area of interest, with 65K remaining a possible deeper destination.
I've opened a long position around this support region. The entry, stop loss, and target are documented on my Telegram channel. Link in the replies.
@CryptoJelleNL The proposal is bad enough, but let's get the facts straight. It's not law yet, and the government plans to move crypto to a capital gains tax in 2030. Taxing unrealized gains in the meantime is still absurd.
I share my BTC trades in real time on my new Telegram channel, including entries, exits and trade management.
Join here for free: https://t.co/jIERvuglHl
$BTC is testing the recent lows right now after another rejection from 74K.
I saw the potential short setup, but the risk-to-reward wasn't attractive enough for me. The downside toward 70K remains possible, but that doesn't automatically make it a trade worth taking.
We're now at an important decision point. A breakdown below the recent lows could open the door toward 70K, while a sweep and reclaim could trigger a relief bounce.
I'm sticking to the trading plan I've already shared. Having a directional bias doesn't mean I need to take a position.
If the structure and risk-to-reward don't align, I'd rather stay on the sidelines.
I share my BTC trades in real time on my new Telegram channel, including entries, exits and trade management.
Join here for free: https://t.co/jIERvuglHl
$BTC is showing exactly why I emphasized the importance of reclaiming 74K and then 75K, with acceptance above both levels.
Price managed a 4H close above 74K but failed to hold the reclaim. BTC reached 74.7K before sellers stepped back in.
The recovery conditions I outlined yesterday haven't been met. Until buyers can establish acceptance above these levels, the broader bearish structure remains intact.
For now patience is still key.
$BTC has swept below the previous 73.4K low, a scenario I had already highlighted before the move, with two confirmed 4H closes below 74K.
Sellers maintained control and pushed BTC down to 72.7K.
74K now becomes an important level to watch for a possible failed reclaim. Continued acceptance below it keeps 70K in focus.
Before a meaningful recovery can develop, buyers first need to reclaim 74K, followed by 75K, and establish acceptance above both levels.
I share my BTC trades in real time on my new Telegram channel, including entries, exits and trade management.
Join here for free: https://t.co/jIERvugTwT
$BTC has swept below the previous 73.4K low, a scenario I had already highlighted before the move, with two confirmed 4H closes below 74K.
Sellers maintained control and pushed BTC down to 72.7K.
74K now becomes an important level to watch for a possible failed reclaim. Continued acceptance below it keeps 70K in focus.
Before a meaningful recovery can develop, buyers first need to reclaim 74K, followed by 75K, and establish acceptance above both levels.
$BTC is now testing the $74K area, where buyers previously stepped in after a sweep to $73.4K.
This is the next area I'm watching closely.
The key now is whether BTC can establish $74K as support through a successful 4H retest. That would strengthen the case for a recovery.
Another liquidity sweep remains possible. However, if price establishes acceptance below Sunday's $73.4K low, the $70K area I've highlighted several times before becomes the next likely downside target.
With CPI later today, volatility could increase, but my focus is always on market structure and price action.
Patience remains key.
$BTC is now testing the $74K area, where buyers previously stepped in after a sweep to $73.4K.
This is the next area I'm watching closely.
The key now is whether BTC can establish $74K as support through a successful 4H retest. That would strengthen the case for a recovery.
Another liquidity sweep remains possible. However, if price establishes acceptance below Sunday's $73.4K low, the $70K area I've highlighted several times before becomes the next likely downside target.
With CPI later today, volatility could increase, but my focus is always on market structure and price action.
Patience remains key.
@kaleemweb3 74K is just the first step. I want to see BTC reclaim 75K and successfully retest it as support before considering a long.
I'll share my actual entry on Telegram once the setup confirms.
I share my BTC trades in real time on my new Telegram channel, including entries, exits and trade management.
Join here for free: https://t.co/jIERvugTwT
There's a big difference between being early on a trade and being wrong about it.
A potential reversal starts forming around an important support area. Buyers begin showing interest, the structure looks promising, and there's a reasonable case for entering a long. But instead of recovering, price keeps drifting lower.
Some traders start questioning the setup after every red candle, while others keep holding long after the original reasons for entering have disappeared.
A slow reaction can be frustrating, especially when you expected buyers to step in more aggressively. But as long as the structure supporting your entry remains intact, the trade might simply need more time.
The difficult part is recognizing when that changes. A failed reclaim, weakening demand, or a break in structure can give you reasons to reconsider the position before your stop is ever touched.
There's nothing wrong with giving a trade time to develop.
Just make sure you're not using patience as an excuse to ignore what's happening on the chart.
If you see trading as nothing more than gambling, staying out of it is probably the right decision for you.
Trading Bitcoin doesn't mean you don't own Bitcoin. I also hold BTC in cold storage.
The idea that long-term conviction and active trading are mutually exclusive is ridiculous.
$BTC continues to struggle around the $75K level.
Despite several attempts to reclaim this former support, buyers have yet to establish sustained acceptance above it.
At the same time, sellers have failed to break Sunday's low near $73.4K.
This ongoing uncertainty reinforces why I decided to close my previous long at breakeven and protect last week's gains rather than risk a full stop-out.
The broader 4H structure remains bearish, with price trading well below the 200 EMA.
A confirmed reclaim of $75K followed by a successful retest could open the door toward $77K–$78K and potentially $80K.
A break below Sunday's low would instead shift attention toward $70K, where I'd be looking for a potential premium long opportunity.
For now, patience remains the priority.
I decided to close my entire $BTC long position at breakeven.
Despite the sharp Sunday liquidity sweep and subsequent recovery, BTC failed to establish a convincing reclaim of the major $75K support.
The 4H and Daily closes below that level, combined with the lack of bullish follow-through, weakened my original long thesis.
Rather than risk a full stop-out, I chose to exit, preserve capital, and protect the gains from last week.
I'll reassess for the next opportunity.
I share my BTC trades in real time on my new Telegram channel, including entries, exits and trade management.
Join here for free: https://t.co/jIERvuglHl