Burmill

Just trying to keep trading as my job so I can enjoy life. PPic is my macro view, day/swing both sides intra

Personal opinion/my notebook, not financial advice

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

You were warned. 200-365wma range achieved. 3595-3056 range as of today. Looking for bottoming divergences in coming days/weeks. Grey box target unchanged at ~3150.

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

Still on target for 200-365ma $ES drop 2-6 months from now.

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

@vader7x Quite something!

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

@jedimarkus77 @PiQSuite @wiseonesuk @AHart1974 *Diff.....icult.erent

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

@DoubleWideCap Concur.

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

@DoubleWideCap We must live in a simulation...

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

@anxietymsgs Focus on you

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

@APompliano People did vote for it. They voted for all the government programs they thought were free. They just didn't realize they would be taxed by inflation to pay for them.

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

One thing I've learned is trading - in order to work - should be boring. My trades are planned the night before. 90% of the day is then waiting for the same 1 or 2 setups - done for the 1000th time - managed exactly the same every time. "Exciting" trading is usually just gambling

[Earnings Whispers @eWhispers]

#earnings for the week of October 14, 2024

https://t.co/My2Eq16qS8

$NFLX $TSM $WBA $UNH $ASML $C $BAC $CMA $JNJ $PGR $SCHW $UAL $MS $ISRG $GS $IBKR $AA $KARO $AXP $TRV $SLB $WDFC $PNC $REXR $STT $HBAN $ELV $ABT $BX $JBHT $PG $KMI $PPG $STLD $USB $PNFP $INFY $SGH $ERIC $CSX $CCK $CFG $FBK $FITB $ALV $MWBM $RF $TCBI $TFC $SYF

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

This interview turns 3 years old this week

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

The stock market explained

[John Trades MBA @JPATrades]

When people ask:

“How to make money trading”

[Dividend Growth Investor @DividendGrowth]

The first $100,000 is the hardest on the road to a million

Once you have this initial $100k, every subsequent $100k comes faster

h/t @4PillarFreedom

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

Your periodic reminder that policymakers only like to talk about the rage of change within inflation, because if we talk about cumulative inflation the picture is rather bleak and suggests that there are no discounts from current pricing coming anytime soon.

[Dividend Growth Investor @DividendGrowth]

Microsoft $MSFT and Altria $MO grew Free Cash Flow/share at roughly comparable rates between 2013 and 2024

Each company has delivered different total returns since the end of 2013 however

Microsoft delivered a total return of 1305%
Altria delivered a total return of 155%

It's important to think about the sources of total returns. In general, total returns are a function of:

1. Dividends
2. EPS Growth/FCF Growth
3. Changes in valuation

The first two items are the so called fundamental returns. They are very important in the long-run, but not as much in the short run.

The last item is the speculative return. Its impacts are very pronounced in the short-term, but negligible over the really long-run

It is important to understand where returns comes from.

Let's break it down:

Microsoft grew FCF/Share from $3.22 in 2014 to $9.97 in 2024, which is a 210% increase

The valuation multiple increased from 11.60 times FCF in 2014 to over 44 times FCF in 2024

Altria grew FCF/Share from $2.12 in 2013 to $6.07 in 2023, which is a 186% increase

The valuation multiple shrunk from 18 times FCF to 8.30 times FCF

The remainder of fundamental total returns for each is explained by dividend reinvestment

One share in Altria from end of 2013 turned to 1.92 shares through DRIPs today

One share in Microsoft from end of 2013 turned to 1.19 shares through DRIPs today

Ultimately, Microsoft delivered a higher total return because its valuation multiple expanded, while Altria's valuation multiple shrank

I hope you enjoyed this!

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

Fact Check: True

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Biden has said the independence of the Fed is "critical" and "I never once spoke to the Chairman since I became President."

Here he is, speaking to Chairman Powell:

[Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek]

“The U.S. economy is in a good place, and our decision today is designed to keep it there,” Powell says.

Our full coverage on today's move:
https://t.co/XgEyoMNdDu

[M Lebon @LongTplexTrader]

I wonder how many heads would explode if the indexes reversed most of the overnight ramp of death....
#ES_F & friends

[Burmill @BurmillFarms]

https://t.co/bjNAx2He0Q

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

If you’re feeling behind, remember:

• 56% of Americans have < $1,000 savings
• 1 in 5 U.S. adults are overdue on medical bills
• 28% of adults have no emergency savings at all
• Consumer debt averages at $101k per household

You’re doing better than you think.