Just trying to keep trading as my job so I can enjoy life. PPic is my macro view, day/swing both sides intra
Personal opinion/my notebook, not financial advice
You were warned. 200-365wma range achieved. 3595-3056 range as of today. Looking for bottoming divergences in coming days/weeks. Grey box target unchanged at ~3150.
@APompliano People did vote for it. They voted for all the government programs they thought were free. They just didn't realize they would be taxed by inflation to pay for them.
One thing I've learned is trading - in order to work - should be boring. My trades are planned the night before. 90% of the day is then waiting for the same 1 or 2 setups - done for the 1000th time - managed exactly the same every time. "Exciting" trading is usually just gambling
Your periodic reminder that policymakers only like to talk about the rage of change within inflation, because if we talk about cumulative inflation the picture is rather bleak and suggests that there are no discounts from current pricing coming anytime soon.
Microsoft $MSFT and Altria $MO grew Free Cash Flow/share at roughly comparable rates between 2013 and 2024
Each company has delivered different total returns since the end of 2013 however
Microsoft delivered a total return of 1305%
Altria delivered a total return of 155%
It's important to think about the sources of total returns. In general, total returns are a function of:
1. Dividends
2. EPS Growth/FCF Growth
3. Changes in valuation
The first two items are the so called fundamental returns. They are very important in the long-run, but not as much in the short run.
The last item is the speculative return. Its impacts are very pronounced in the short-term, but negligible over the really long-run
It is important to understand where returns comes from.
Let's break it down:
Microsoft grew FCF/Share from $3.22 in 2014 to $9.97 in 2024, which is a 210% increase
The valuation multiple increased from 11.60 times FCF in 2014 to over 44 times FCF in 2024
Altria grew FCF/Share from $2.12 in 2013 to $6.07 in 2023, which is a 186% increase
The valuation multiple shrunk from 18 times FCF to 8.30 times FCF
The remainder of fundamental total returns for each is explained by dividend reinvestment
One share in Altria from end of 2013 turned to 1.92 shares through DRIPs today
One share in Microsoft from end of 2013 turned to 1.19 shares through DRIPs today
Ultimately, Microsoft delivered a higher total return because its valuation multiple expanded, while Altria's valuation multiple shrank
I hope you enjoyed this!
Biden has said the independence of the Fed is "critical" and "I never once spoke to the Chairman since I became President."
Here he is, speaking to Chairman Powell:
“The U.S. economy is in a good place, and our decision today is designed to keep it there,” Powell says.
Our full coverage on today's move:
https://t.co/XgEyoMNdDu
If you’re feeling behind, remember:
• 56% of Americans have < $1,000 savings
• 1 in 5 U.S. adults are overdue on medical bills
• 28% of adults have no emergency savings at all
• Consumer debt averages at $101k per household
You’re doing better than you think.