BTC cycle behaviour Version 2
Everyone by now is aware of cycle behavior
Everyone
This was not the case in past cycles
A road map with dates for making money just doesn't exist in real life.
The more the market becomes aware of a pattern, the less likely it is for that pattern to play out. Thats life!
This has already been seen with an ATH prior to halving that I predicted in November 2023 (see pinned tweet for receipts) and we continue to see a change in typical market behavior for alts, as I predicted for around 2 years now.
I have many posts explaining my reasoning behind this so I wont get in to this now.
I want to talk about what comes next...
I think we are witnessing and about to really witness the biggest mind game Crypto has ever seen
So lets break this down:
🔜 Most (yes most) expect typical market behaviour cycle top and the beginning of a bear market
Some, like me are questioning this. See my many posts on why.
Whats the likely outcome?
Remember, this is a mind game.
step 1: as BTC grinds higher, shorts get liquidated and bulls celebrate.
step 2: BTC longs increase and go nuts
Step 3: bears are silent
step 4: wreck the longs
step 5: bears come back with a vengeance with the famous we told you so
step 6: selling accelerates
step 7: the majority of the retail market panics and sell
step 8: whales, institutions and some retail catch bids and run the price back up
step 9: bull market resumes as the FED cuts rates, DXY get weaker, the dollars are being printed, Gold & silver & BTC and a few high caps and a few select small caps are seeing ATH's
This is how you shake the most out
What i'm doing: Hedging for the highly possible Step 4. Not a full hedge.
Hedging is not free but capital preservation is paramount and for me, the risk of being out for the chance of buying lower does not outway the risk on missing out on the next impulsive leg which could start at any point following the fear tactics I believe we will see
BTC to 220K within the next 6-8 months is my prediction
This is my thesis and until i see something that really justifies a change it it, I'm hanging around and ready to buy when step 8 is in
Good luck to you all
Wishing you the best
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