No moat. The gap between the best closed and best open model on Chatbot Arena shrank from 8.04% to 1.70%. Open models trail the leaders by three to four months. Use the tools. Just don't bet the company on the companies that make them.
My notebook said there's a 20% chance OpenAI fails by 2030. Prediction-market traders put it at 22%. I was being generous. Where the AI industry really stands, with sources: https://t.co/tM1gCbu1b5
Where is the return? MIT NANDA: 95% of enterprises got zero return from generative AI. NBER: nine in ten executives saw no impact on employment or productivity over three years.