Coin Hunter

Opinions only. Not financial advice.
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[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

8 years in crypto.

And people still think everyone will buy the October bottom and get rich.

That honestly makes me laugh.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

The “relief rally” phase is over.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Phase 2: “Relief rally.”

“ETH is dead” phase is over.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@0XAALAN I think, yes

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

BTC at $57K: “Not the bottom.”

BTC at $85K: “Okay, $57K was the bottom.”

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Breakout confirmed.

Retest now. Expansion next.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Altcoin season is 3% away.

Not clickbait.

I’ve been waiting for this breakout for 3 years.

ETH/BTC is only 3% away from 0.031 — the 100-week moving average.

The last time it broke above this level, ETH and alts went on a massive run.

ETH/BTC hasn’t been able to reclaim this level since 2023.

Now we’re almost there again.

And most people don’t even believe in altseason anymore.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

8 years in crypto.

The bull run is confirmed.

Congrats, survivors.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@The_DailyDigits Yeah, said this here. Disbelief in the move keeps per funding from getting cooked — about as healthy a setup as it gets.

https://t.co/6QPsP9Qdq9

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Crypto has one of the best setups I’ve seen.

What changed?

Last year, retail would FOMO into every small pump with high leverage. Funding would spike, making every rally hard to sustain.

Now it’s the opposite.

There’s hesitation. Doubt. Disbelief.

Funding stays clean, while shorts keep providing fuel for the move.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

On August 11, I said I was bullish.

Since then, we’ve seen massive green candles on both BTC and ETH.

Here’s my ROADMAP:

For months, I’ve been warning that the crowd waiting for an October bottom could be in serious trouble.

The biggest problem is the strategy itself.

You can’t call every move up a “relief rally” and keep waiting forever.

If the breakout comes early, you could miss the entire bull run.

So what do I expect?

I think BTC will accelerate between $75K and $100K.

The October bottom crowd still isn’t convinced. But once BTC breaks $80K, patience could quickly turn into:

“I’m late.”

“I’m missing the supercycle.”

That FOMO could push BTC even faster.

For altcoins, I think the boring setup is almost over.

For me, the bull market will be confirmed when:

• BTC closes the week above $75K
• ETH/BTC closes above its 100-week moving average around 0.031

I’m watching ETH/BTC very closely.

It hasn’t reclaimed its 100-week moving average in 3 years. The last time it did, altcoins accelerated hard.

A 3-year breakout won’t be slow.

I’m bullish, but I still have an exit plan.

Right now, I plan to scale out of ETH between $4K and $6K. I’ll make the final decision based on the data at the time.

I don’t think $10K ETH is very likely this cycle.

Waiting for the October bottom could be the first trap.

Waiting for $10K ETH could be the second.

This is just my personal roadmap. I could be wrong.

Not financial advice. Manage your risk.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Why am I still bullish when almost everyone in crypto is bearish?

Not because everyone is bearish.

Being contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian is lazy.

I’m bullish because while crypto sentiment still feels terrible, some of the things I care about are quietly moving in the opposite direction.

Start with equities.

The Russell 2000 is up 22.3% this year and is outperforming the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow.

The S&P 500 is at all-time highs.

Small caps are working.

That doesn’t look like a market where investors are afraid of risk.

So when risk appetite is showing up almost everywhere except crypto, I see two possibilities:

Crypto is structurally dead.

Or crypto is simply late.

I think the second one is more likely.

Now look at the labor market.

July payrolls came in at -23K.

May and June were revised down by another 103K combined.

Unemployment is still only 4.1%.

So no, this doesn’t scream recession.

But the labor market is clearly cooling.

And that matters.

At the last FOMC, three Fed members actually wanted to raise rates by 25bps.

The Fed held at 3.50–3.75%, but another hike was a real risk.

A softer labor market makes aggressive tightening harder.

That’s the balance I want to see:

Soft enough to take pressure off the Fed.
Not weak enough to scream recession.

Inflation is moving in the right direction too, even if the job isn’t finished.

June headline PCE fell 0.1% month-over-month.

Core PCE rose just 0.1%.

Annual inflation is still too high, so I’m not pretending the problem is gone.

But if that monthly trend continues, the macro narrative can change much faster than people expect.

Then there’s crypto itself.

ETH/BTC is approaching one of the most important levels on my chart:

The 100-week moving average around 0.0313.

It hasn’t been sustainably reclaimed since 2023.

I’m not calling an altseason because we’re close to it.

But reclaim that level on the weekly and hold it...

and I think the conversation changes very quickly.

Then there’s CLARITY.

A few weeks ago people were debating whether this would even move forward.

Now the cloture motion has been filed and it ripens on September 15.

That doesn’t mean it passes.

They still need the votes.

But we’ve moved from:

“Will they even bring this forward?”

to:

“Can they get 60?”

That’s a meaningful difference.

So my thesis is pretty simple:

Small caps are already showing risk appetite.

The labor market is cooling.

Short-term inflation momentum is improving.

The Fed has less room to stay aggressively hawkish if that continues.

Regulatory clarity now has a real Senate catalyst.

And ETH/BTC is sitting just below a level that could signal a major regime change.

Meanwhile, most of crypto is still waiting for lower prices.

Maybe they’re right.

Maybe we get another ugly correction first.

I’m not expecting a straight line up.

But I think a lot of people are looking at how bad crypto has felt for the last few months and assuming the next few months have to look exactly the same.

Markets rarely wait until everything feels comfortable.

The data starts changing first.
Price reacts next.
Conviction comes last.

I’d rather pay attention during the first part.
The level I’m watching is simple:
ETH/BTC 0.0313.

Reclaim the 100-week MA and hold it, and I’ll become much more bullish.

But I’m bullish before the confirmation.

That’s the whole point.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@Kriptom280899 That’s a strategy too, respect. But at what level would the “October bottom” idea be invalidated? You do have a stop, right?

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@casino_hunk Yeah, that’s why this bull run could hurt a lot of people. If it moves too fast, fewer will catch it.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@tomjntx Especially a weekly breakdown could signal a major trend shift for altcoins.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@Bobby_1111888 Yeah @Bobby_1111888, your analysis has been really consistent over the past few months, and I’m one of those who’s benefited from it.

Congrats!

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Benjamin Cowen and the October bottom crowd have a problem.

Every move higher is still “just a relief rally.”

No invalidation. Just October.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

What’s the stop for the “October bottom” thesis?

BTC at $75K?
Do you finally call it a breakout, or just another relief rally?

$80K?
Still a relief rally?

At what point is the thesis actually invalidated?
Or is the whole strategy literally just:

“Wait until October.”

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

BTC broke $75K

This fractal is working almost perfectly.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

$100K BTC in October wouldn’t surprise me.

Most people think that sounds impossible right now.

That’s why it’s interesting.

A lot of people are still waiting for the “perfect October bottom.”

If BTC breaks $75K before then — and I think it will — they won’t feel patient anymore.

They’ll feel late.

Then the chase starts.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

@Babswale01 The answer may come tomorrow.

https://t.co/cHSXhOa7Sg

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

When altcoin season?

Alts are one weekly confirmation away from going crazy.

I gave you the level before the move.

Ignore the noise. Watch the level.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

I positioned early for the 2021 altcoin bull run.

BTC dominance hit 74%. Crazy times. My portfolio got nuked: -70%.

Then everything flipped. Fast.

The market changes before your mindset does.

I was early then.

I think I’m early again.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

ALT COİN BOĞA NE ZAMAN BAŞLAR? CEVAP BASİT!!

Şuan BTC.Dominansı 68.60. Gösterdiğim %67'lik kısmı aşağı kırarsak işte o zaman roketi takarız!! Çok yaklaştık.

$doge $iota $btc $hot $neo $bch $comp $zil $waves $ont $algo $nano $dgb $qtum $sc $lsk $celr $eth

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

48 hours later:

The biggest short liquidation event in crypto history.

Liquidity was that thin.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Imagine 10/10, but in reverse.

Liquidity is that thin.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

When altcoin season?

Alts are one weekly confirmation away from going crazy.

I gave you the level before the move.

Ignore the noise. Watch the level.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Altcoin season is 3% away.

Not clickbait.

I’ve been waiting for this breakout for 3 years.

ETH/BTC is only 3% away from 0.031 — the 100-week moving average.

The last time it broke above this level, ETH and alts went on a massive run.

ETH/BTC hasn’t been able to reclaim this level since 2023.

Now we’re almost there again.

And most people don’t even believe in altseason anymore.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

I think the boring part is almost over.

Next week could get very volatile.

Like this and I’ll share the full breakdown.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

I think the boring part is almost over.

I went back and looked at 2020 again.

BTC didn’t follow stocks higher in a straight line.

It wasn’t like:

Stocks +5% → BTC +5%
Stocks +8% → BTC +10%

It was more like:

Stocks go up.
Then again.
Then again.

BTC barely moves.

Sometimes it even goes down.

Everyone gets bored.

Then BTC starts catching up.

And when it does, it moves fast.

2020 looked like this:

May: +9%
June: -5%
July: +13%
August: +3%
September: -10%

Then:

October: +30%
November: +42%

The S&P got back to its old ATH on August 18, 2020.

BTC didn’t make a new ATH until 104 days later.

Now look at 2026.

Stocks were back at record highs on May 13.

Today is August 13.

92 days.

And BTC is still around $63K

So if this is another catch-up, I don’t think we’re at the start of the boring part.

We’ve already been in it for months.

Maybe we get a few more boring weeks.

Then it gets interesting.

Especially when almost everyone is waiting for the same October bottom.

I can already see how this could go:

$65K → $70K
“Relief rally. I’ll buy lower in October.”

$75K
“Maybe I should buy a little…”

Retail starts thinking:

“What if it doesn’t come back?”

$80K
“F*ck it. I’m in.”

And that’s why I think:

$75K → $80K → $90K → $100K

could happen much faster than $60K → $75K

The first part can take months.

The second can happen in weeks.

2020 was boring for months.

Then it got fast.

I think 2026 could do the same.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Phase 3: “Dead-cat bounce.”

“Relief rally” phase is over.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

I’m a simple man.

ETH at $1,600: Dead.

ETH at $2,000: Relief rally.

ETH at $2,500: Dead-cat bounce.

ETH at $3,000: Maybe the bull market is back.

ETH at $4,000: I’ll buy the next pullback.

ETH at $5,000: $10K is inevitable. This is just getting started.

Meanwhile, smart money quietly distributes.

ETH dumps.

“Crypto is a scam. I’m never coming back.”

Then the cycle starts again.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

Boring until $75K. Fast after.

[Coin Hunter @bycoinhunter]

I expect a boring, exhausting market until $75K. This is the best setup we could ask for.

After $75K, FOMO will kick in and I think we’ll get to $100K much faster.

Because right now, the whole world is waiting for an October bottom.

Once $75K breaks, people will start feeling late.

The “relief rally” talk will turn into “maybe the bull started early.”

That’s also when I expect the real altcoin move to begin.

Most retail will buy the “4-year supercycle” story when BTC breaks $100K.

But by then, the bull market may only have a few months left.

And they’ll buy the top again.

This is my thesis.