The Daily Digits

Crypto and macro, every morning.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

Every thread here gets a longer version the next morning, with the method, the robustness cuts, and the call with a horizon.

👉https://t.co/xwe8SpUZ7N

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@StealthQE4 market isn't laughing, it's pointing at the wrong tenor. the long end already crossed 5. 30y has closed above every session since early july, 5.27% now. the intervention can't unprint that.
https://t.co/EqEAU61ZDH

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

everyone is queued to call the 10 year crossing 5% the day it prints. the long end already did it. the 30 year has closed above 5 every session since early july, 5.27% now, a full 53bp over the 10. the gauge is late.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@BitcoinFear 74 today, 73 friday. ran all 3,122 readings since 2018 — 'greed' has been 641 days but only 27 separate stretches. one month out the interval spreads 36 points wide. it's a state, not a signal.
https://t.co/11qCaJTGk0

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

fear & greed hit 73 today. i ran all 3,122 readings since 2018 against what bitcoin actually did next. the fear half of the dial is noise. the greed half is 641 days that are really only 27 episodes, and a month out it cannot be resolved at all. https://t.co/u3BIPN7ZMA

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@financialjuice transits are the loud number, stocks are the quiet one. week to 16 aug ran 73 vs 91 the week before — us crude still rebuilt to the 5-yr average. shortage read doesn't stick; curve, not the strait, decides the trade.
https://t.co/I1o9JzCgG0

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

bearish brent from friday's $94.39 over the next month. the futures curve is why.

a steep curve looks like a shortage, so people buy it. forty years of months sorted by steepness: the steepest tenth fell 3.5%. no other group fell more than 0.7%. an average month is +0.8%.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@AdamBLiv $1m is the headline. flows explain 39% of the move that already happened and 1.5% of the one coming. 137 weeks of spot btc etfs.
https://t.co/HzAQpozX90
noise.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

$1.9b went into the us spot bitcoin etfs last week, most since october. i ran the flow against price for all 137 weeks since launch. it explains 39% of the move that already happened and 1.5% of the one coming. as a signal for what comes next it is noise. https://t.co/84CyoMxq8P

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@AdamBLiv the flywheel already stopped in june. no bitcoin bought since 21 june. $3.7bn of stock sold and 6,916 coins sold in eight weeks. each share owns 12% less bitcoin than it did in may.
https://t.co/ODD9Q6vUAd
bearish the treasury-co as a btc proxy.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

bearish $MSTR as a bitcoin proxy: the flywheel stopped in june and holders are paying for it.

no bitcoin bought since 21 june. in the eight weeks since, $3.7bn of stock sold and 6,916 coins sold.

each share owns 12% less bitcoin than it did in may.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

the fear gauge already tripped. the 30 year closed 5.27% and has held above 5% every session since early july, 34 straight. the 10 year everyone is waiting to watch cross is still 53bp back at 4.74. the long end broke first. november refunding is the next test. https://t.co/W41DV77KVF

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BECOMES MARKET’S NEW FEAR GAUGE

The US 30-year Treasury yield has become a key market focus as concerns over government debt and fiscal credibility intensify.

A Bloomberg survey shows 66% expect the 10-year yield to exceed 5% this year.

But KB Securities says investors are too pessimistic.

It argues policymakers still have tools to contain yields, including Treasury buybacks, fiscal tightening, Operation Twist and bank deregulation.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

everyone is queued to call the 10 year crossing 5% the day it prints. the long end already did it. the 30 year has closed above 5 every session since early july, 5.27% now, a full 53bp over the 10. the gauge is late.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

druckenmiller's right on the mechanic. the buyback is a swap, not new money. treasury buys back old bonds by selling new bills, so debt shifts to the front end. real 10-year at 2.41%, highest since oct 2023. yield suppression only works while the front end absorbs it. https://t.co/r8P5DkZ6AV

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

everyone is about to call the bear market over on a treasury liquidity injection. the buyback is not new money. treasury buys back old bonds by selling new bills, so debt shifts to the front end. the inflation-protected 10-year yield is 2.41 percent, highest since october 2023.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@dampedspring agree. saylor's own 8/23 confirms it: $136m strc buyback, $5.1bn cash, no btc add. flywheel in reverse. common below mnav means raising dilutes per share, buying strc below par is accretive. same paper, opposite trades. https://t.co/G58crbBIU3

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

strategy is selling bitcoin to defend the price of a preferred share, and it isn't working.

STRC is sold at $100 and meant to trade at $100. friday's close: $94.78. its first close, july 2025: $94.50.

in between, the dividend went from 9% to 12%. $MSTR

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@tyler 21m cap is the endpoint. flow is the near-term. hashrate grew 16% last month, largest mining fleet needs zec near $1,005 to survive that at 7c power. spot $563. scarcity trade lives on whether marginal supply capitulates first. https://t.co/Kf3qm0O6tG

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

cypherpunk paid $33.3m for the largest zcash mining fleet on earth. no cash left the building. the price was 43.3m new shares.

what they bought earns that $33.3m back only if zcash's network stops growing. it is growing 16% a month. $ZEC $CYPH

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

https://t.co/xwe8SpUZ7N

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

bitcoin just closed its fifth biggest weekly candle in eight years and the timeline is trading it as the start of something.

on the nine times a week gained 22% or more since 2017, the median 4-week return afterwards is +8.1%, against a +1.9% base rate. a permutation test puts that at p=0.22.

neutral on btc here. the big candle is not information. $BTC

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

so: the fifth biggest week in eight years tells you nothing about the next month that a coin flip would not.

nine episodes, one of which decides whether the twelve-week result is significant at all. the drawdowns are deeper than normal and the returns are not better.

big weeks are a fact about last week.

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@AdamBLiv outperformance flipped. 46 straight weeks catching more of bitcoin's downside than its upside. 1.62x the drops, 1.25x the rallies.

https://t.co/A1FwghABIo

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

the +687% is right, and so is his reason for it. mstr used to win bigger than it lost.

that flipped in september 2025. for 46 straight weeks it has caught more of bitcoin's downside than its upside.

1.62x of the drops against 1.25x of the rallies. https://t.co/441EvRRN2q

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

@vinodsrinivasan https://t.co/gkCCPvLwa5

[The Daily Digits @The_DailyDigits]

the rupee did not sit still. it hit 96.57 on 22 july, 0.26% off its record low, then came all the way back.

the quiet is the tell. since 2003, with usdinr vol under its median, the rupee rallies 2%+ the next month 6.7% of the time vs 14.4% base. bearish. https://t.co/ZCTkWV98CJ