Byron Anderson

Head of Fixed Income - Laffer Tengler Investments -posts are not investment advice. “Enjoy the silence”

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Fed Balance sheet as a % of GDP. Can you see when the Fed went fully interventionist? How do we ever unwind this much manipulation without pain? Forget ever going back to baseline +/- 6% short duration balance sheet. If Logan is correct, QE is here to stay forever. The not so hot take is that the Fed will never end manipulation. Fed's Logan: The Fed should buy more shorter-dated assets WHEN Fed purchases resume. Logan says its about mirroring Treasury issuance. Maybe Congress can do its' job and push back a little before allowing this AGAIN? Don't worry the Fed that didn't react to inflation for a year and stagnated the housing market with QE has this covered. The problem is Logan thinks the big balloon is the normal part of that curve. These people have ZERO reverence for the US economy. https://t.co/CnF97QQ7q0

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Rates aren’t restrictive for WHO is the question? Wage growth is at a 5 year low. Credit card delinquencies are at peak. CRE is unbelievably soft. Housing sales are at GFC lows. COGS had been deflationary and only went inflationary after tariffs, but only .21%. Labor market is ok.
Going into Iran, headline inflation was at 5 year lows.
Arguing for rates to go higher feels like trying to find a solution for the wrong problem.
The breakdown of CPI is oil and energy being the massive spike into a soft consumer, which will be offset by demand. Solve Iran you solve oil, and by that you solve inflation. Not the other way around.

This feels like a risky path of thinking.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

@NickTimiraos https://t.co/vXfSaM67Bn

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

The financial media is trying rewrite history on Powell and his chairmanship. Powell may be the nicest guy in the entire world, but we are seeing the effects of the Fed manipulating the bond market and massive missteps on policy. Just because he kept Fed independence doesn't mean he was great. All the policy mistakes and missteps (which the article addresses and agrees with) don't get put on "THE FED", they get put on the Leader Powell. QE forever (still in QE BTW), FAIT, and then the magical altering of FAIT, and "transitory" will be his legacy, along with a stagnated housing market. Everyone cheers the manipulation short term but the effects are still to come. Social Security is a prime example. Yellen and then Powell stole interest from SS Trust by holding rates and yields artifically low for a decade, thus speeding up the demise of the Trust. Powell never thought of the after effects of his policies, which is the bigger problem. Welcome Chair Warsh, hope you do better.
https://t.co/gEcqjugOtl

[Nancy Tengler, CIO Laffer Tengler Investments @ntengler]

Spent time on @BloombergTV's The Close yesterday with @RomaineBostick, @scarletfu, and @adsteel as the S&P 500 logged its ninth straight day of gains.

Watch: https://t.co/H5QIgOda6u

[Cow Guy Close @CowGuyClose]

.@ScottTheCowGuy and @ByronAndersonII discuss the trouble looming in the bond market and why people are looking past it @OfficialRFDTV
🔗https://t.co/1U4CHV3FOo

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Oil and interest rates are going to spike if the Senate passes the similar bill working its way through the body. Don't care if you are for or against the war, taking war powers away from the President while the Straight of Hormuz is still closed seems like a very bad idea. All negotiating leverage is gone.
https://t.co/uNY3FMsKEY

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Memorial Day. Thank you to all the soldiers that lost their lives protecting the US and its citizens. Politics don’t matter in celebration of these brave soldiers. Thank you for your sacrifice.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Congress will have to do its job and show fiscal restraint? I say HA sir, HA indeed. And the Fed wont manipulate bond markets as issuance is swamping demand? When markets start retreating and yields start climbing, Warsh will cave. The three amigos set the US on a terrible path that can only be undone with austerity. Good luck Kevin.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Bond markets are not in panic mode. I get to talk with @ScottTheCowGuy about the reasons why this is an orderly move so far.

[Scott Shellady @ScottTheCowGuy]

A great show in store! We talk oil, NVIDIA, Jobs and Bitcoin. We end on bonds and fertilizer. Tune to The Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV daily 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @KennyPolcari @JasonKatzUBS @carleygarner @ByronAndersonII @AgBullMedia @AshleePitzl @OfficialRFDTV @CowGuyClose

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

@MRingo_C @intlmandotcom And the US doesn't go bankrupt they become Japan. Fed will buy all the debt and print dollars to continue the mess for decades. Fed balance sheet to $20tn over the next decade.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Scale of total US Federal Debt. Also, that we are increasing it NOW at an average of 9% since COVID, 8% since GFC. 8 years we double that almost 39tn if the pace continues. Interest on the debt goes from $1tn to $2tn IF interest rates don't increase. Cherry on top is we have an almost $2 trillion dollars deficit annually or 6% deficit to GDP.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

The financial media is trying rewrite history on Powell and his chairmanship. Powell may be the nicest guy in the entire world, but we are seeing the effects of the Fed manipulating the bond market and massive missteps on policy. Just because he kept Fed independence doesn't mean he was great. All the policy mistakes and missteps (which the article addresses and agrees with) don't get put on "THE FED", they get put on the Leader Powell. QE forever (still in QE BTW), FAIT, and then the magical altering of FAIT, and "transitory" will be his legacy, along with a stagnated housing market. Everyone cheers the manipulation short term but the effects are still to come. Social Security is a prime example. Yellen and then Powell stole interest from SS Trust by holding rates and yields artifically low for a decade, thus speeding up the demise of the Trust. Powell never thought of the after effects of his policies, which is the bigger problem. Welcome Chair Warsh, hope you do better.
https://t.co/gEcqjugOtl

[Cow Guy Close @CowGuyClose]

.@ScottTheCowGuy and @ntengler discuss the rising 10 year yield and where there is opportunity in the market @OfficialRFDTV
🔗https://t.co/chkNcuIRis

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Powell was not a bystander in inflation he was adding to it. From the point inflation breached 4% until the first interest rate rise, Powell and the Fed continued to buy MBS and long dated treasuries on the balance sheet. He went a full year of rampant inflation before we saw a single rate hike. Inflation will not be transitory when housing and services inflation are climbing double digits. We were seeing massive housing inflation and rent inflation and the Fed understood the government was showering anyone with a pulse with endless amounts of free cash. THAT IS STICKY, and any fed member with a pulse should have known that. He is not savior Powell, he was complicit in the problem. Long term AVERAGE inflation targeting? The greatest error ever for Powell, which should be his scarlet letter and keep him out of your Fed Chair Hall of Fame. THE FED screwed up on inflation since GFC so we are going to let inflation run super hot to "make up for" a decade of undershoot. WHAT? That decade of low inflation was a benefit for citizens, but Powell thought better. As citizens are experiencing 9% headline inflation, Powell is talking about past inflation undershoots. How did that work out? It took 5 years to get to 2.5%. That Sticky inflation sure is sticky. The overshoot was a massive mistake and that policy was revoked. Blowing out the balance sheet with QE and now we are seeing the REAL problem, as Fed and Treasury are having to "manage" interest payments because we added so much debt at zero interest cost. That is the legacy of QE. Powell wasn't doing anything to affect the horrible policies in place. Somehow savior Powell couldn't see the longer term effects of QE because if feels good to make the market go up. He is not a saint, he may be a nice person but the US is in trouble partly because of him not in spite of him. Warsh wants to change these stupid ingrained policies and was absolutely against Fed intervention in markets in the GFC.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

The Fed isn’t going to hike rates into this inflation. ZERO reason to hammer consumers and economy with higher rates. Inflation a supply driven issue with ONE solution. Iran.

[Cow Guy Close @CowGuyClose]

.@ScottTheCowGuy and @ByronAndersonII discuss high yields and why the Fed is in a tough spot @OfficialRFDTV
🔗https://t.co/l0XUoeYWu6

[Brandi Kruse @BrandiKruse]

DAMN. Former Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire, a Democrat, goes scorched earth on the current Democrats leading the state. Says they have no clue how bad their policies are for the economy.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

If you can’t see the long term effect of debt and deficit in the US take a listen. 6% budget deficits in non-recessionary periods? There is a reason markets believe the Fed will step in, because there is no choice. Since 1997 we are increasing total debt at 8%+ per year. These are insane debt doubling speeds, we will double our current Treasury debt in well under a decade (I add speeds from 1997, 2008, 2020). Interest expense isn't going to be a problem, it IS a problem at $1Trn. Understanding long term debt will help you position your bond portfolios. You either believe debt spirals out and long rates go to 6-7-8% or the Fed steps in with its unlimited balance sheet and we get the problem Japan is dealing with CURRENTLY fighting debt and currency.

[Cow Guy Close @CowGuyClose]

.@ScottTheCowGuy and @ByronAndersonII discuss if there's anyway to get out of our debt issues @OfficialRFDTV
🔗https://t.co/jiwNoRtTTH

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

It will never be enough. She says it as a joke but this is the true belief. YOU DON’T “DESERVE” THE MONEY THAT YOU WORK FOR. The collective led by Katie Wilson and other socialists will decide what’s best for everyone as a whole. You aren’t a “morally” bad person if you make a lot of money but you don’t deserve anything more than anyone else. The collective being the same at every level is the goal and that means what you have will eventually be needed for the commune.

[Byron Anderson @ByronAndersonII]

Nancy Tengler, Laffer Tengler Investments, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss tech earnings, market expectations and much more.
https://t.co/eHhjHYIHFH

[Cow Guy Close @CowGuyClose]

.@ScottTheCowGuy and @ByronAndersonII discuss the U.S. debt entering dangerous territory @OfficialRFDTV
🔗https://t.co/XuNXMsFRts