ByteTrend

ByteTrend is a unique and powerful trend-following system to help investors make better decisions. Crypto coverage can be found at @BytetrendCrypto. @ByteTree

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Trend following enhances returns and controls risk.

Also known as the momentum factor, it is one of a handful of factors in investing with a proven ability to generate alpha.

This month, @ByteTree has relaunched ByteTrend (https://t.co/DsMSj1LTx4) to help investors analyse, understand, and capitalise on the momentum effect.

The chart shows the returns from buying winners (blue) vs buying losers (red). The momentum effect has generated a 16x return over the past thirty years.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

$GOOGL has broken down, relative to the world index.

It has now underperformed the world index since November 2025, falling from a weekly trend score of 5 to 2 in the process.

The short term trend is broken, but the long-term one remains intact for now...

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Market Breadth Is Rebounding

A month ago, 48% of stocks had a short-term (daily) relative trend (CAPR) score of 0. Half of stocks were strongly underperforming the world index.

Today, that has fallen to 29%, as weak stocks have rebounded, enjoying renewed attention as the AI trade falters. Breadth was at its most extreme level since the 2008 Financial Crisis in September.

A good reminder to always be short extremity.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

A $1.5 trillion company just hit a 30-week relative low.

$AVGO isn't alone. $CAT $GE $C $KLAC $ETN $BHP are all on the list.

250 names. 130 in Bear. Industrials lead the exodus.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

A map of global momentum ⬇️.

Which are the strongest regions and sectors in the world?

This table shows you - using the average relative (CAPR) trend score for each cross, from US Technology to LatAm Utilities to Middle Eastern Real Estate.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

250 stocks just hit 30-week relative lows. 130 are already in Bear.

The biggest names on the list:
$AVGO $1.53T
$CAT $316B
$GE $296B
$C $222B
$BHP $197B
$KLAC $191B

Industrials (65) and materials (52) are bleeding hardest.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

The AI infrastructure trade is cracking.

250 stocks just hit 30-week relative lows, led by Broadcom $AVGO at $1.5T.

Look who's with it: $KLAC $ETN $CAT $GE, Schneider, ABB. Picks and shovels for data centres and the grid.

Even Hermès is now in Bear.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

See more data like this at https://t.co/URrmlLFWyO

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Finally, short-term shifts:

Short-term momentum is broadening. On the Daily scores, the share of 5s rose from about 13% to 17%.

More names are at 30-week relative highs than a week earlier, but more are also at lows. That’s a widening spread between winners and losers, not a one-way move.

Defensive $XLP names are where Weekly scores are most likely to rise next.

$XLK $XLV $XLI

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Bitcoin $BTC drifted to about $80k. Its Weekly score is still 4, and Daily slipped to 2.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Geography:

Japan is still the strongest major market, with about a sixth of names at 5.

Latin America is the strongest region and improving (Brazil election will change this).

The UK and Europe were broadly flat to slightly softer.

China and India kept weakening. In each, about half of names score 0, and India fell 4% on the week.

$EWZ $SPY

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

What continued:

Leadership is still narrowing. The share of 5s (strong trends) fell from about 10% to 9%. It was around 14% in June and has trended down since. The share of 0s (weak trends) has also fallen, so scores are bunching in the middle and the market has fewer clear leaders.

The semis and memory sell-off also continued. It was flat last week but brutal over the month:

000660.KS (SK Hynix) down 29%
$INTC (Intel) down 32%
$MU (Micron) down 19%
$AMD (AMD) down 18%

Chart shows $SOXX long term trend, scores are the blue bars underneath:

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Oil went the other way.

Brent rose 6% to about $117. Its Weekly score went from 3 to 4, and Daily is 5.

Energy now has the most daily relative (CAPR) trend scores of 5 of any sector.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Defensives and sold-off areas recovered.

Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Energy and Real Estate all gained on average Weekly score.

Biotech and application software rebounded hard after a rough previous week.

US Treasury futures are at 30-day highs relative to world equities.

$TLT vs $ACWI

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Precious metals broke down.

Gold fell 4% to about $4,000. Its Weekly score held at 3, but Daily is 0 and it is 25% below its all-time high.

Silver fell 6% and is back at a 30-week relative low.

Platinum and palladium are in Bear Trend.

Among gold stocks, the share of 5s nearly halved to 8%, and they fell 9% on the week.

Basic Materials was the worst sector. Its share of 5s fell from 9% to 4%.

#Gold

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Taken a week off from markets?

Here's what you missed, in a thread 🧵

Summary: the world index barely moved, but leadership rotated a lot underneath.

MSCI World $ACWI fell 0.7%. On Friday, its Weekly Local score dropped from 5 to 4, the first time it has been off 5 since mid-April.

Money moved out of megacap tech, semis, precious metals and materials. It moved into healthcare, staples, energy and rate-sensitive stocks.

Leadership across the market kept thinning, as it has since the summer.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Megacap tech weakened further. Equal-weighted stocks beat cap-weighted ones over the week.

$META (Meta) lost its 5 on Monday and fell 9% over the week, with Daily 1.
$GOOGL (Alphabet) fell 6%. It sits at Weekly 2, Daily 0.
AVGO (Broadcom) is back at a 30-week relative low (Weakening Trend, score 2).
$NVDA (Nvidia) went from 4 to 5 and back to 4.
$AAPL (Apple) is the exception: still 5 and in Leading Trend.
$JPM (JPMorgan) slipped to 4. The share of 5s in regional banks fell from about 17% to 11%.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

What changed:

As well as losing its Weekly 5, its Daily Local score is 2 and it is in Weakening Trend, meaning a 30-day low. It is about 3% below its August high. The last time it dropped off 5 was early March, and it fell to 2 within a fortnight. That’s one precedent, not a rule.

$ACWI $URTH

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Semiconductor Trend Has Broken

The most notable trend change in recent months is in semiconductor stocks, shown here by the $SOXX ETF.

These have been in a bull market since early 2023, enjoying a (nearly) uninterrupted relative trend (CAPR) score of 5 since June 2025.

However, over the past month, the weekly trend has slipped to a 4 and is now a 3.

Meanwhile, its daily CAPR score is now a 1. Having failed to make a new relative high, it has broken below its 30W CAPR moving average and is making new relative lows.

This is a bearish chart for semis.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Defensive Stocks Surge

In a dramatic shift, low-volatility stocks are now the strongest daily CAPR trend group, following a long period of high-volatility stocks leading the market.

Mega-caps still dominate, so no change there.

This fits the “flight to quality” narrative.

[ByteTrend @ByteTrend]

Everyone: "France is burning!"

Meanwhile:

$OR and $TTE are the two largest stocks making a new CAPR daily score of 5 today...