Brits murdered 35 million of us, contrived 12 devastating famines, looted $45 trillion, reduced India to an opium economy, broke us in two, left us with a life expectancy of 32 years. But we survived.
India is beautiful because Indians are beautiful. Happy Independence Day! ๐ฎ๐ณ
Whether it is inflation on the ground or anger on the ground, ignoring reality is never a solution.
Demand-led inflation cannot be addressed through supply-side measures alone. Policy must first identify whether the pressure comes from excess demand, supply constraints or both.
In the same way, fact-based public anger cannot be managed through narratives. It requires dialogue, accountability and trust.
Scapegoating is not governance. Just as match-fixing does not automatically make the coach or the Sports Minister responsible, deflecting blame never solves the real problem.
#CJP #Protest #Delhi #NEET
Whether it is inflation on the ground or anger on the ground, ignoring reality is never a solution.
Demand-led inflation cannot be addressed through supply-side measures alone. Policy must first identify whether the pressure comes from excess demand, supply constraints or both.
In the same way, fact-based public anger cannot be managed through narratives. It requires dialogue, accountability and trust.
Scapegoating is not governance. Just as match-fixing does not automatically make the coach or the Sports Minister responsible, deflecting blame never solves the real problem.
#CJP #Protest #Delhi #NEET
Whether it is inflation on the ground or anger on the ground, ignoring reality is never a solution.
Demand-led inflation cannot be addressed through supply-side measures alone. Policy must first identify whether the pressure comes from excess demand, supply constraints or both.
In the same way, fact-based public anger cannot be managed through narratives. It requires dialogue, accountability and trust.
Scapegoating is not governance. Just as match-fixing does not automatically make the coach or the Sports Minister responsible, deflecting blame never solves the real problem.
#CJP #Protest #Delhi #NEET
Startup funding news this week ran on two channels. the press release channel and the filings channel. They did not say the same thing.
The press release channel announced rounds, celebrated valuations, quoted founders on missions. The filings channel showed median runway compressed from 24 months to 14, dry powder near 12 billion dollars sitting unspent, and 73% of the D2C brands that raised a Series A in 2023 still without a follow: on round.
Money that exists but does not move is not a funding winter. It is a pricing dispute. Inves to rs have the capital. they no longer trust the TAM slide, so the clearing price of conviction went up.
The work, as always, is in the gaps. put the funding announcement next to the MCA filing next to the cash: flow statement and read what the same company says in three different places. The distance between those three documents is the trade.
Skip the congratulations posts. Read the filings. The week's real funding s to ry was in the back tab.
#vkunboxed #startup #india
A friend asked me about the rupee bond yield spread over chai yesterday. My answer to ok one napkin.
The spread is not one number. It is two numbers arguing with each other.
Number one. the fiscal deficit target says 4.4% of GDP. The bond market is pricing something closer to 5.0. That 60 bps gap is the whole trade. Either the government's math holds and yields rally, or the market's skepticism wins and the curve stays heavy.
Number two. the trade balance is running near 32 billion dollars a month. Above 30, the current: account math starts eating the carry. Every extra billion a month makes the foreign bid for rupee bonds more expensive to hedge and less attractive to hold.
So the yield spread question is really a question about which number you trust. the budget document or the cus to ms data.
Neither the panic camp nor the vic to ry: lap camp has run this arithmetic. Somewhere between panic and euphoria there is a napkin, and the napkin says. watch the monthly trade print, not the spread itself.
Which number would force you to flip your duration call. the deficit or the trade balance?
#vkunboxed #markets #india
The math on U.S. crude oil falls below $85 as U.S. and Iran near a deal to reopen Hormuz broke at the Singapore open. The Indian market gets to react 4 hours late.
Apple shifted 14% of iPhone production to India. The China+1 trade isn't a slogan, it's a balance sheet.
US tariff on Indian IT services would cost $8B/yr per Nasscom. Almost nobody is pricing any real chance of it.
When a geopolitical event repaints crude by 4 dollars before the BSE opens, the gap is the trade for the next session.
Quad's semiconduc to r coalition committed $30B but India's actual fab build: out is one Tata fac to ry.
Night: desk discipline is the underloved edge. The day desk reads the news at 9 AM. The night desk traded it at 3 AM.
#vkunboxed #geopolitics #india
Musk holding more than half of a 2.1 trillion cap: table is the under: discussed number. At single: shareholder control with no liquidity pressure, the float is structurally tight, so listing: day volatility is more about leverage flows than fundamentals. Anchor lockup duration matters more than the P to E ratio here.
The biryani is the s to ry. The structural shift is GSTN data triangulation. Restaurants were already squeezed by ITC blockage on F and B; cash suppression was the workaround. With e: invoicing, third: party POS data, and reconciliation against supplier returns, a 27% hidden sales gap is statistically obvious before a single officer walks in. The luck: based audit is becoming data: based.
The his to rical pattern is sharper than people give it credit for. Aramco Dec 2019 marked the oil to p to the month. Coinbase April 2021 was within days of the BTC cycle high. Uber May 2019 marked the unicorn: IPO regime change. Each peak was a single 80 billion plus listing in a frothy sec to r. If SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic land within one quarter, that is the template repeating.
@Chart_Levels Real interesting bit is Simple Saving, not the headline. Nifty PE sits at 22x vs 10: year average of 20x. The narrative isn't the issue, the relative spread is.
@TomolaGroup Sharper take: Zenith Bank is the math nobody priced in. Only 4 of 15 mega: IPOs from the 2024 cohort are above issue price to day. The crowd is louder than the cohort. Tell me where do you draw the line on anchor book quality.
The forced: buying math is the trade. When SpaceX enters S&P 500, the passive complex has to absorb roughly 19% of public float proportional to index weight. Thats a multi: quarter program with sticky pricing. The interesting question is how float: adjusted weight gets calculated. Musks holdings, employee options, cus to mer: purchase tranches. exclude or include.
SEBIs social: media surveillance isnt new. The intensity is. Three shifts in 90 days. more on: platform notices to finfluencers, joint TRAI surveillance on telegram, faster SAT escalation when KYC trails dry up. Test for yourself. is your tip a fact or a recommendation? If its a recommendation without registration, youre a research analyst under regs. Different bar.