Cognitive Assonance

em trader. macro grumbler.

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@claydon_calder What a great idea, definitely in for a tie

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@Big_Orrin But surely ability to hold is simply ability to withstand drawdown? In which case recalibrating sizing to be able to wear the bigger drawdowns is the solution. Day traders are ultimately just zero sum noise.

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@Big_Orrin Why not just size a bit smaller to account for the higher vol?

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@alon_mizrahi https://t.co/jjNuJLTj1P

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🗞️ NYT: U.S. developing workarounds to funnel money to Iran without direct payments

With Trump refusing to authorize any deal that could be framed as direct cash payments to Iran, his team has been quietly developing alternative financing mechanisms, according to the New York Times, which cited three anonymous U.S. officials.

▪️ Gulf Arab states have been lobbied by Trump and his team to underwrite Iran’s postwar reconstruction, contingent on acceptable terms. A $300 billion investment fund has been discussed among Gulf countries to that end
▪️ A separate mechanism under discussion would unfreeze Iranian funds held by Qatar, which would then purchase medicines and feedstock and transfer them directly to Iran
▪️ Both steps would require U.S. sign-off, an official said

Trump’s aversion to direct payments stems from years of attacking the Obama administration over “pallets of cash” delivered to Iran as part of a financial settlement timed to the 2015 nuclear deal.

The most challenging sticking point in any formal deal, the officials said, remains the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium.

Source: New York Times

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@dampedspring @MichaelKantro Financial repression, prolonged negative real rates, maybe ycc if necessary

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@SunnyKumar67391 @PetjaYlitalo @CRUDEOIL231 The market is setting the price. In the absence of speculators, real economic actors who have genuine buying and selling needs (and therefore don’t care about volatility) are setting a price which clears their supply and demand.

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@PolemicTMM @Steven_Swinford Financial repression is the only way to balance the debt sustainability equation in many G10s

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@PetjaYlitalo @CRUDEOIL231 You think it’s better that speculators take barrels off the market for profit to generate demand destruction? Sounds pretty dystopian

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@ARaj_Energy Why is it a problem that the government is making it harder for random people to make money speculating on the oil price? Seems to me exactly the kind of thing they should be doing

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@ces921 He needs the green light from the Japanese government, not from Bessent

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@yieldsearcher Depends which country you look at

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@biancoresearch Why would the Iranians release news which makes oil go down?

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@cryptobasenji Seeing some people say that atlas are overweighting wealthier people in the sample 22% vs 3% in the census is that correct? Do you have any other views on that?

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@yieldsearcher Agree, japan more about capital flight due to inappropriate policy settings, but it is fixable

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@allbullnobear8 But also hard to see credit spreads widening much if equities don’t care much, unless you meant swap spreads

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@izakaminska I don’t understand why dollarization is necessary here. Just hike rates and tighten fiscal policy and GBP will be fine. The USD has plenty of problems of its own

[Cognitive Assonance @CAssonance]

@AndreasSteno … which is not ideal when you run a 10% twin deficit