The CBB Geek

College Basketball Analyst, Bracketologist and Fan, Member of the Bracket Matrix....Open DMs

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

I think Arizona State sneaks into the field for now… but this is pending what happens with bid stealers and bubble teams as well.

A win tomorrow against Arizona however…

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@Z30Sportscast I concur, they’re in by the performances of everyone else.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

The bubble (outside of Penn St) is having a HORRIBLE day.

Utah St, NC St/Clem, Ariz St, still to come tonight… so who will change the narrative?

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

Wisconsin is finished.

NET of ~80 and 12th in the league at 17-14… will not cut it.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

Gonzaga is a solid 3 at this point.

Don’t think they can crack a 2, but they’re no longer on that 3/4 cut line on the seed list.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@NCStateFan215 @teacher_bracket Yes I did…

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

Out of all the bubble teams, NC State is the most troublesome.

They need two quality wins this week.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

What do some of the bubble teams need to get in?

UNC: Win the tourney
Michigan: 3 wins
Vandy: 3 wins
ASU: 3 wins
Wisconsin: 2 wins
Clemson: Win the tourney
Rutgers: 1 win
PSU: 1 win
Utah St: 1 win
Okla St: 1 win
Miss St: 2 (to be safe)
Providence: 1 win
Pitt: 1 win

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@NCStateFan215 @teacher_bracket 2-6 against Q1 is pretty putrid…

Yes there are some (Maryland, Utah St (bubble)) but not many

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@NCStateFan215 @teacher_bracket It’s not that Miami isn’t a good win (it is)… just there isn’t much breadth to the resume as a whole from the quality win perspective.

I think we’re all on the same page in that metrics & minimal bad losses are NC State’s argument today.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket I think road wins (especially 3 Q1 road wins) carry them with the road performance.

Just my opinion, they’re a bubble team so we shall see what happens.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket 1 win is *probably* good enough for Miss St

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket I like the 4-4 Q1 record, blitzing Northwestern by nearly 30 with some other road Q1 wins helps.

A 7-5 road record to couple that serves them well. I think they just nearly need to avoid the bad loss, if they win two they likely avoid Dayton.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket Should’ve phrased that a little clearer…

They’re in worse shape than everyone thinks. Could have been more concise.

The bubble overall had a bad week, but I think they need 2 wins. Especially with bid stealers coming…

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket I guess to each their own as to what this committee does, Kansas has ripped off multiple Q1 wins while Bama and Purdue have regressed. I think it’s tough to ignore those 15 Q1 wins at this point.

I agree metrics hold them up, the question is how much when the resume beef is thin

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket And by worst shape, I mean they are on the cut line

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

@teacher_bracket Relative to other bubble teams, they are the ones in the worst shape relative to expectations from all.

Most have them as a 10 seed, more than likely they’ll finish with 2 wins versus the field.

2 Q1 wins to couple, no bueno.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

Charleston is down 5 at half to Towson.

Possible bid stealer?

3-0 vs Q2

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

What do some of the bubble teams need to get in?

UNC: Win the tourney
Michigan: 3 wins
Vandy: 3 wins
ASU: 3 wins
Wisconsin: 2 wins
Clemson: Win the tourney
Rutgers: 1 win
PSU: 1 win
Utah St: 1 win
Okla St: 1 win
Miss St: 2 (to be safe)
Providence: 1 win
Pitt: 1 win

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

The last 1 seed:

Purdue vs UCLA

Let’s use wins against the field

Purdue: 9 (excluding Big Ten bubble teams)
UCLA: 4

There’s no debate right now, Purdue is a 1.

[The CBB Geek @CBBHoopsGeek]

Hopping into the bracketology discussion a little late but here’s some thoughts on the bubble:

Overvalued:

NC State
Pittsburgh
Providence
Miss St

Undervalued:

Penn St
Utah St
Okla St
Vandy (closer than many think)
#bracketology