Cenglebertria

Founding Partner & CIO, Featured Author, #NASDAQ Guest Speaker 🎙️ Financial Adviser To Investors Of All Ages. Weekly Free Market Updates 👉

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

Well the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page is finally writing about the crazy abundant reserve policy. But they still don’t understand it or its dangers.

The Fed Quietly Announces It’s No Longer Steering the Ship by Joseph C. Sternberg https://t.co/SpOOxYJLSQ via @WSJopinion

[TradeTalks @TradeTalks]

.@Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk, US Economist, & @CEnglebertRIA join @JillMalandrino on TradeTalks to discuss key themes to watch in 2026 and why the market environment could be a “return to normal”. https://t.co/yj7V41MvMC

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

My take on Bitcoin $BTC

It’s a fantastic invention. An alternative payment system plus a limited supply.

If BTC became our money 21 million divided into a $30 trillion GDP means each BTC would be worth ~$1.5 million and Saylor would control 3% of our GDP without creating anything.

However, this will never happen. Govt will never let BTC be our money. People wanted gold to be our money and it’s not. Why, because you can’t do QE with gold. It lashes you to a standard. So does BTC.

BTC does provide an alternative payment system, but if that’s all it is why do I care what it’s worth? If I need to send someone $5,000 and BTC is $50,000, I need 0.1 BTC. If BTC is $1,000 then I need 5 BTC. So who knows what the supply and demand for alternative transactions will set the price at? All I know is it won’t be $1.5 million and I highly doubt it will fall below 1 cent. Someone could corner the market.

And, finally, if BTC isn’t our money, and all it does is provide a blockchain-based alternative transaction method, there are cheaper alternatives coming into play right now. Stable coins can do the same thing, but, apparently, cheaper.

I think there is more downside to $BTC.

[TradeTalks @TradeTalks]

.@Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk & join @JillMalandrino on TradeTalks to discuss if the Santa Claus rally came early in 2025 and if 2026 could be the year that the rest of the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 start to outperform the MAG 7. https://t.co/2AhHmovzT3

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

Grok, look around the world over as much history as you can find. What economic system creates the most wealth?

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

This budget shutdown is incredibly important. During COVID, Congress put in extra healthcare benefits that will cost us roughly $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years. COVID is over, so that should end. The OBBBA did that. The Democrats, like usual, want to make temporary things permanent and they are willing to shutdown the government to reverse the OBBBA. There are Republicans who are getting wobbly kneed over this issue. Some say it is unfair to end subsidies, etc, which might make insurance premiums jump. But a lot of this is Obamacare, which was supposed to make healthcare cheaper for everyone. As we knew at the time, that was never going to come true. So, here we are. How is this going to end? If Republicans cave then I have very little hope that the US will ever get its spending, or debt, under control anytime soon. Then the Fed bails us out again. No wonder gold and silver prices have soared.

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

For all those Republicans who fear spending cuts. Please look at the 1980s and 1990s. Reagan and Clinton both cut non-defense spending relative to GDP. Both won reelection. H. W. Bush increased spending (and raised taxes) and lost. Why? Because growth picks up when you cut government spending. Taking more from the private sector hurts growth. Spending restraint and shrinking the role of government boosts growth. Not only that, people don’ really want to fight over government handouts…they, deep down, want freedom and to be personally responsible. Have faith in capitalism…if you won’t do that you will lose everything anyway.

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

I don’t know whether the US is envied or not, what I do know is that these growth rates are all pathetic. After printing and deficit spending like insane Keynesians, and only getting this, isn’t it time to unwind it and massively cut the size of government?

[TradeTalks @TradeTalks]

.@Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk & @CEnglebertRIA join @JillMalandrino on @Nasdaq #TradeTalks to discuss how to effectively communicate concerns and market observations with your advisor. https://t.co/Oqpb3wapXK

[Nasdaq Dorsey Wright @DorseyWrightNDW]

This week's NDW Featured Four-Pack includes equal weight proxy $RSP inching higher, Dow Jones representative $DIA facing resistance at all-time highs, Bitcoin representative $IBIT reaching new all-time highs, and copper representative $CPER reaching new all-time highs.

[Nasdaq Dorsey Wright @DorseyWrightNDW]

On Monday, the Bullish Pct for the S&P 500 crossed above 70% for the first time since dropping below 20% in April. This is the second fastest round trip on record following only March 2020. Forward returns for $SPX are mixed over the next 3-6 months, but one-year returns are mostly positive.

[First Trust @ftportfolios]

“The era of easy everything is over.” 💸 Brian Wesbury expects a modest, normal recession—not a crash. Why low rates + big spending are behind us:

🎧 https://t.co/4KqZeCiBVN
📺 https://t.co/tbUEU7QoEn

#BrianWesbury #FirstTrust #ROI #Recession #Markets

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

Every single problem in the United States is caused by:

AN EXCESSIVELY LARGE GOVERNMENT!

[Nasdaq Dorsey Wright @DorseyWrightNDW]

The Ten Week for S&P 500 (^TWSPX), a measure of the percent of stocks above their 10-wk moving avg, fell to 6%, the lowest level since mid-Sept of 2022. It can still move lower, but we are in extreme near-term wash-out territory. A reversal higher would be positive near-term.

[Brian Wesbury @wesbury]

Do you really think the market should only go up? Why is everyone freaking out? The Nasdaq went up 43.4% in 2023 and 28.6% in 2024…total of 84.5% in two years (without dividends). It’s down just 13.7% this year-to-date. And everyone is totally freaking out. C’mon man!

[Nasdaq Dorsey Wright @DorseyWrightNDW]

Semiconductors were the darling of the market until stalling out at the end of 2024. The iShares Semiconductor ETF ($SOXX) took out its 52-week low with Friday's price action and now has a near-zero fund score of 0.19 (out of 6 possible points).

[Nasdaq Dorsey Wright @DorseyWrightNDW]

The current movement for the US dollar certainly seems to be rhyming with the movement from late 2016 to early 2017.

[Nasdaq Dorsey Wright @DorseyWrightNDW]

Our overbought/oversold (OBOS) reading for $SPX fell near -90% Tuesday. That has indicated washed-out levels in prior declines, suggesting heightened potential for a near-term bounce. Post-COVID dates that have seen similar levels include summer 2022, Sept 2022, & Oct 2023.

[TradeTalks @TradeTalks]

.@Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk & US Economist, @GOLDCOUNCIL & @CEblgebertRIA join @JillMalandrino on @Nasdaq #TradeTalks to discuss how trade, fiscal, and monetary policy will play in shaping the trajectory of stocks, fixed income, and gold in 2025. https://t.co/5z4ToYqK1k

[TradeTalks @TradeTalks]

.@IBKR Chief Strategist @SteveSosnick @PhilMackintosh @Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk & @CEnglebertRIA join #TradeTalks to discuss what’s driving optimism in the market due to strong earnings, the dominant theme of AI and technology, and Trump’s agenda. https://t.co/nTMlrhRUWG