Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

CEO & CIO, Newfound Research | 🥞 Return Stacked® ETFs | 🌊 Liquidity Cascades | 📆 Rebalance Timing Luck | ⚡️ Risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

My company, Newfound Research, turned 15 today.

Coming up on this anniversary, I reflected quite a bit on my career.  I’m not sure why, but this milestone feels larger than I would've expected.

So I decided to write something.

15 Ideas, Frameworks, and Lessons from 15 Years

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@cullenroche Congrats!

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@DeeZe Why so bearish

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@fglancszpigel You're an LLM, aren't you 🤦‍♂️

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

US 100% Equity + 100% Trend funds...

Return Stacked (Sep 6, 2023) →
AQR – QCFIX (Jun 18, 2025) →
Simplify – CTAP (Dec 8, 2025) →
Man Group – MATE (Dec 17, 2025) →
JPMorgan – JPFP (May 28, 2026)

I bet we'll see more...

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@fglancszpigel And again you're back to lumping all the trend managers together when they demonstrably behave differently.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@fglancszpigel Are you really saying you're concerned about the crowding in... the S&P 500 beta?

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@DeeZe you're absolutely in your parent arc now.

personally, i just yelled "slow down, kids live here!" at a car on my street that was driving too fast.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

We're back with an absolutely stacked line-up!

📆🥞

[Return Stacked® Portfolio Solutions @returnstacked]

The Return Stacking Symposium is back.
📅 October 28, 2026 📍Chicago

🔊 @CliffordAsness + @AQRCapital, @jpmorgan,
@ManGroup

💰 Free for advisors, CIOs, and selected media

Registration is now open. 👇

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@RyanDoherty100 Much appreciated 🙏

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@rektmando my guy, your bag went from like $1.15 to $1.45 in 2 days. Are you really complaining about that?

crypto expectations are wild.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

someone call Dan Brown

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

Sometimes I think I deserve the block.

Othertimes, I'm confused by the Internet.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@tomfairplay time to slaughter the sacred cow of "there's easy alpha in fixed income"

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

Some Saturday musings on turnkey return stacking / portable alpha solutions...

Consider two fund choices: 100% S&P 500 + 100% Managed Futures or 100% US Bonds + 100% Managed Futures

At the portfolio level, both allow you to do the same thing: stack managed futures.

But there are some very important trade-offs.

Let's assume that both implement their beta with 75% cash securities + 25% futures.

Right now, the financing in S&P 500 futures is approximately SOFR+88bp while in US Treasuries it is approximately SOFR. That means implementing the structure on top of equity beta has an invisible 22bp drag (88bp x 25%).

In fact, S&P 500 futures are almost always more expensive than Treasury futures and have traded substantially over the SOFR+30-50bp historical average for the last several years.

Furthermore, if you ask people outright which structure is "riskier" (e.g. which one is more likely to face a substantial margin call), almost everyone will say the equity plus managed futures approach.

And yet equity plus managed futures seems to absolute dominate bonds plus managed futures in sales.

Why?

I'd argue it's all about the perceived line item risk.

Equities are already risky... so what if we add something else on top? And when you combine stocks + managed futures, neither dominates the return.

Bonds on the other hand are supposed to be safe and steady. Adding managed futures on top adds substantial volatility. Plus the managed futures dominate the variance, making the alternative return really stand out.

That line-item risk has an increasingly costly trade-off though (especially if you're implementing the beta only with futures...)

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@ArchitectIncome @stocksncrypto26 Here are the equity curves of the two funds you're saying are "not even close"

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

As one of the PMs on the aforementioned fund: they're quite similar.

$MATE was launched 2+ years after we launched ours, but they both seek to provide 100% US Equity + 100% Managed Futures exposure.

Since common inception, they've had a weekly correlation of 0.94 and nearly identical total return.

I wouldn't necessarily expect that going forward. We take an approach that seeks to replicate the category at large while $MATE is a proprietary approach to Man Group.

Choosing an idiosyncratic manager is fine and I have nothing but good things to say about Man... but "not even close" seems like a gross misstatement here.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@2ang7 The significant majority of dollars allocated to our funds are via financial advisors. Their clients are, on a dollar weighted basis, predominately near or in retirement.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

No.

There's the beta return, the managed futures return, and the return attributable to rebalancing impacts.

The managed futures returns are what they are.

But let's say managed futures keep going up while stocks keep going down and bonds stay flat. The rebalancing impact will be much more negative for stocks+mf than bonds+mf.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@b162543 You rebalance at the portfolio level and end up at the same place. You're stuck at line item thinking.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@trash_pm Not precisely the implied financing in ES, but should be close enough.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

@sticks_bricksdd S&P 500 futures are something like SOFR+80 right now.

Unless my math is completely failing me, TYU6 is quoting right around SOFR.