Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️

Polar Climate Scientist researching Antarctic sea ice @BAS_news; mum of two. All views my own.

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

For various reasons, September has been hard. Thanks to @XanderArmstrong @ClassicFM this morning for restoring my soul (Widor, Barber AND Tchaikovsky)

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@James_Peterson @brian_bilston so he did! (Problem temporarily fixed!)

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

t's hard to wrte up analyss on Antarctc sea ce wthout an '' key...

[Dr Kaitlin Naughten @kaitlinnaughten]

Interviewed by @TimesRadio today on ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice.

To be welcomed onto live radio as a person who stammers, and for stammering to not be the subject of the interview or indeed a big deal to anybody involved, feels pretty good indeed.

[Laura Tobin. @Lauratobin1]

Today is #EarthOvershootDay

🌍 Today marks the date when “humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year!”
Basically we’ve used all of Earth resources for the year and now we depete it!😢

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@ClimateDann @ClimateVikki And March 2022 East Antarctic would be in there too?

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@edoddridge PS Ed- great work! I know I've been moaning about 1 in however many million, and maybe/probably being too nuanced about all this- but it's really important that this CRAZY anomaly is getting attention it deserves #climatecrisis

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@edoddridge @micefearboggis I'd hunch not- recon is atmos-data based and the anomalies we are seeing now reflect ocean conditions? e.g. there's evidence of low sea ice in 60s and 70s that isn't fully captured in these recons- but even those not nearly as dramatic as now https://t.co/pUe2aEvHHN

[Ed Doddridge @edoddridge]

The current level of Antarctic sea ice is beyond anything in the last 120 years.
#Antarctica #ClimateCrisis

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

#Antarctic #seaice : GREAT video disentangling the jargon and some of the issues around sigmas etc. (similar vibe to my 🧵 but easier to follow!) - I agree that '1 in ... million' is
✅v. helpful to conceptualize
⁉️ pushing what the data can tell us

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@rail_guns Yes- and that being a 'motorist' is some profound identity, rather than an often-sadly-necessary consequence of economic and infrastructure planning.

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@rdlarter @kevpluck 3) More on ocean here: https://t.co/rnPGtMmc8L

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@rdlarter @kevpluck 2) on winds; yes and no. Last year's La Nina and deep Amundsen Sea Low consistent with pattern of change in Amundsen/Bellingshausen- but the remarkable lack of refreeze seems out of the bounds of what we could explain with winds? See excellent https://t.co/dWby5cO1hu

[Dr Ella Gilbert @Dr_Gilbz]

#Antarctica is currently missing an area of ice bigger than Greenland. It's clear that we're seeing an extraordinary event unfolding.

So, you've seen the graphs: what do they mean?

Find out in our @ConversationUK article with @CHolmesClimate

https://t.co/HAowgzlB1b

[Dr Doug McNeall @dougmcneall]

@ZLabe @micefearboggis @Dr_Gilbz @CHolmesClimate Here’s a really useful story on Antarctic sea ice from @readfearn to add to the thread of explainers https://t.co/926B7UOBv4

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

@nathanaelmelia I agree with you - but "not part of the distribution" because we assume the distribution has changed, or because the distribution as-is isn't well sampled (latter is point about extreme event statistics, former is about climate change)?

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

But (back to the top) the exact number isn't really important! (15/15)

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

#Antarctic #seaice there's widespread discussion about the sea ice anomaly and what it means statistically and physically, and some good discussions, but I think some key graphs need showing *together* so here goes (1/15 🧵)

[Dr Caroline Holmes 🌊❄️ @CHolmesClimate]

Next, to go from '5-sigma' to '1 in 7.5 million years': we have to assume a "normal distribution"; i.e. that the probability of something (sea ice) having a certain value follows a certain set of rules. If sea ice doesn't, then '1 in 7.5 million' could be way off. (14/15)