Investor Chris

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@bozkaschi Even the bulls seem bearish now. Good sign.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Shell's CEO just said the oil market is short 1.2 billion barrels.

That's 12 days of global consumption that has simply gone missing.

⚠️The deficit is "deepening every single day."

Wael Sawan at a recent energy conference: more than 10% of global crude production is offline because of the Iran war.

The IEA confirmed it global supply fell 10–11 million b/d in March, to 97 million b/d.

Some oil is shut in because Hormuz is closed.
Some because infrastructure is damaged.
Every barrel covering that gap is coming from storage. 📉

Why "borrowing from the future" is the right frame?

OECD inventories are on track to hit 2.3 billion barrels by December the lowest level since at least 2003.

On-shore stocks outside the Middle East fell more than 200 million barrels in just a few weeks this spring.

You can drain storage to survive a crisis.
You cannot drain it indefinitely.

The rebalancing math :

Step 1: Supply must catch up to demand. That alone takes many months even if Hormuz reopened today, ramp-up and infrastructure repair take time.

Step 2: Once supply exceeds demand, you still need surplus production for months more to refill that 1.0–1.2 billion barrel hole.

Sawan's timeline: "close to a year, if not longer." Stress levels will remain elevated "for quite some time." 📋

🇨🇳China isn't buying less oil it's drawing down its own stocks, masking real demand.

The IEA and EIA broadly agree with Shell Sawan's read.

This is the largest supply shock in oil market history.

The physical market won't feel "normal" soon.

I broke down what this means for market positioning .

Do not miss my article.

Link for the full edition is in the below comments👇

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@PolyluminaMed @EddieLovoQua @MONETARY_MAYHEM And their demand isn't crashing because of demand destruction, it's because the oil isn't available for them to import, hence SPR draw downs etc.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@PolyluminaMed @EddieLovoQua @MONETARY_MAYHEM China has been releasing from its SPR which has 4-8 months of supply.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@nicrypto Shakeout before the breakout

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@peter_krauth How much of the hot jobs report was a result of employment associated with the world cup?

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@rickjeff78 Maybe we did.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@KingKong9888 Buy buy buy

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@PolyluminaMed @EddieLovoQua @MONETARY_MAYHEM No, demand is not being destroyed. Fuel use is being subsidised and fuels and oils are being released from strategic reserves all around the world. The West is in denial and we will probably will have to pay the piper by mid July.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@MONETARY_MAYHEM Well, they jumped a little after the hot inflation reading.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@MONETARY_MAYHEM So, the best inflation hedges will go negative if inflation increases.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@TheMetalCharts Yup, kept some dry powder tho

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@WillRThornton1 @DonDurrett I bought more yesterday. People forget that they are also generating some revenue.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@DonDurrett I bought more Nexgold, Aya, Contango, Nord Precious Metals.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@bozkaschi I bought more NexGold, Contango, Aya, and Nord Precious Metals.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@NorthstarCharts I am buying today, and keeping fresh powder dry.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@OilandEnergy When China stops emptying its SPR.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@icooperTrades You were one of VERY few people calling for further downside after the dip and you absolutely nailed it.

[Investor Chris @CJONArtist]

@icooperTrades If only I had believed it at the time lol...