Bitcoin at $64,000 means Bitcoin has pierced the 200 Week Moving Average to the upside.
The floor has become the floor again :)
+2.2% above the remarkably consistent BUY ZONE for Bitcoin.
I pulled every historical instance where Bitcoin traded within a hair of +2.2% above the 200W MA, then measured forward 12 and 24-month returns.
The scoreboard:
12-month returns positive: 100% of occurrences
24-month returns positive: 100% of occurrences
Four cycles. Seven reclaims. Zero red outcomes.
Median forward returns:
12 months: +153%
24 months: +572%
To stress-test it, I ran six tolerance bands around the +2.2% mark and took the median of every median:
12 months: +151%
24 months: +441%
Apply the median of medians to $64,000 spot:
12-month target: ~$160,000
24-month target: ~$346,000
The 200-week moving average has never lied. It just makes you wait.
$BTC
Real BTC sell-off has only just begun...
Here's my plan: $60K → $39K–$49K (Bottom) → $170K
Wait for fear to take over, then load up on BTC...
Bookmark this post & turn notifs on...
🚨 JUST LOOK AT THIS $BTC CHART...
$BTC revisited Bull Trap Zone and then delivered a sharp sell-off, taking out the $60k low
Reaction after sweep is mixed and many now believe only upside remains...
My roadmap for next month is straightforward:
1. ABC pattern formation
2. Bounce toward $68k
3. Gradual distribution and another leg down
4. Cycle bottom around $48k
At this point, question isn't "IF next drop comes"
It's "WHEN next drop begins"...
I was among few who nailed 2025 ATH and move down to $60k
Turn on notifs - you won't want to miss the next call
I have been briefed on the Record Cold Wave and Historic Winter Storm that will be hitting much of the United States this weekend. The Trump Administration is coordinating with State and Local Officials. FEMA is fully prepared to respond. Stay Safe and Stay Warm! President DJT
🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP JUST DE-ESCALATED WITH IRAN
Not through State Department.
Not through Switzerland.
Not through Qatar.
Through Pakistan. At 1am.
Iran’s ambassador received the message overnight: No attack. Exercise restraint.
Brent crashed 2.5% within hours.
Why Pakistan? 959 kilometers of shared border. ISI-IRGC channels predating both governments. Geographic inevitability with plausible deniability.
Qatar offers neutrality. Pakistan offers something better: a channel where both sides claim they never talked.
Trump says he told them to behave. Iran says they showed strength. Neither capitulates publicly. The architecture lets both narratives survive.
72 hours ago the world watched Diego Garcia. Six B-2 bombers. Half the combat-ready stealth fleet. GBU-57 bunker busters designed for Fordow.
Wing of Zion evacuated to Greece. The exact pattern preceding June 2025.
Every signal pointed to war.
Then a message moved through Islamabad at 1am and the calculus inverted.
The buildup was never preparation for strikes.
It was leverage for this moment.
Trump proved in June he would act. Seven B-2s. Fourteen bunker busters. Largest strike of its kind in history.
Now he is proving he can restrain.
Markets understood instantly. WTI settled $60.11. CFTC longs unwinding. Another $4-6 downside as positioning catches reality.
But here is what oil bulls are missing.
Lower prices compress Iranian revenues 10-15%. Lower revenues deepen the fiscal crisis. Deeper crisis accelerates pressure on a regime already bleeding in the streets.
Trump does not need bombs.
Price compression does the work.
The 25% tariffs on Iran’s trading partners complete the architecture. China and India face $70 billion exposure. Economic strangulation without a single Tomahawk.
The protesters are still dying. The rial is still collapsing.
But the bombs are not coming.
Not because Washington is weak.
Because Washington already won.
The art of the deal. Executed at 1am. Through a border that cannot be ignored.