CRTA.Plus

Context. Evidence. Developments in Serbia as they happen. Developed by @CRTArs. Dostupno i na srpskom:

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Two weeks, two EU documents, one Serbia - two very different pictures.

On 3 July the Commission circulated an internal “non-paper” arguing Serbia had done enough to open Cluster 3 (justice, freedoms and security) in its accession talks. On 17 July its annual Rule of Law report assessed the same period - and was far more critical.

On the same facts, the non-paper is generous where the report is exact: it calls the judiciary fixed while the report finds political pressure “increased significantly”; it calls the media regulator standoff resolved while public TV gives the ruling majority 95% of prime-time news; it credits electoral progress while the report notes laws passed with no genuine debate and data still withheld from the UVR audit commission.

And the non-paper omits entirely what the report documents: civil society space downgraded to “repressed,” the crackdown on protests, presidential pardons for people charged with injuring protesters, and the disbanded Novi Sad inquiry.

On 8 July, EU governments declined to open Cluster 3 for Serbia. Read more https://t.co/4qYzS1WGMT

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Serbia has a new draft law meant to separate public office from election campaigns - limiting the misuse of office and public resources.

CRTA’s verdict: some progress, but several rules stay vague, two are a step backward, and it’s still headed for urgent procedure with no public debate.

And party and state stay fused into one - exactly the blurred line ODIHR has flagged as a priority.

We expect the draft to reach parliament soon. https://t.co/CbWMYm961J

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

If and when dissolution is eventually requested, a 45-60 day campaign would then follow before election day. See how the scenarios play out on https://t.co/5FxiYzvEeR

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

On Monday, Serbia's parliament debates a no-confidence motion against the government. The catch: the motion is the opposition's - filed in February over the General Staff building affair - but it's the ruling majority that chose when it finally reaches the floor, after sitting on it for months.

[Savremena politika @sav_politika]

Sednica Narodne skupštine na kojoj će se naći tačka dnevnog reda Predlog glasanja o nepoverenju Vladi biće održana u ponedeljak, saznaje Savremena politika.

https://t.co/aKsltLAO0q

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

The ruling MPs are expected to back the government - which would leave them free to control when it falls. Defeating the motion clears the last obstacle to dissolving parliament, so they could then trigger early elections at a moment of their choosing - on the president's command.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

But how people would vote is neither the only nor the most important thing we asked about elections. A majority no longer believes the vote is free and fair - and that's the bigger story: https://t.co/BK1ggRyh4J

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Everyone zeroed in on one number in CRTA's new survey: who citizens of Serbia would vote for. 🗳️ You can load those results straight into Mandator, our tool that turns vote shares into projected parliament seats: https://t.co/2EVjnMJF3S

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

And that divide is manufactured upstream. On national TV, EU coverage was 84% negative in the first half of 2026, while Russia ran 88% positive and China 99% - a map of the world drawn to fit those in power. Read more: https://t.co/dxiGcIqBEx

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

62% of citizens aged 18-29 lean EU; 52% of over-65s lean Russia. Among ruling-party voters, just 15% lean EU against 60% for Russia; among student-list voters it flips to 75% EU. Your side at home decides your side in the world.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

That's not forgetfulness - it's an accurate read. The prime minister is meant to head the executive, but the office has been hollowed out to the point the public rightly looks past it. A democracy and separation of powers in name only. Read more: https://t.co/pl0j4xbPwD

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Who is Serbia's prime minister? Half the country can't say.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

And it's not only how citizens feel. After the 2023 elections, @osce_odihr found the misuse of state resources had "blurred the line between the state and the party." Trust in the state has become a measure of loyalty to the ruling party - total for its supporters, hollow for everyone else.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

In Serbia, state and party have become one: whether you trust the state now depends almost entirely on which side you're on.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Among ruling-party voters, trust in every institution is near-total - 98% trust the president, 92% the government, 88% parliament. Among student-list voters it collapses to almost nothing: 0% for the president, 1% for the government and parliament alike.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Trust in the president has nearly halved in three years - 60% (2023) to 35% (2026), the steepest fall of any institution.

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Trust in Serbia is collapsing at the top - and it follows one rule: the closer an institution sits to power, the less people trust it. 🧵

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Most trusted: state universities (71%) and the church (63%). Least trusted: the president and government (~35%), parliament (31%), and political parties (19%).

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

That gap - between the ideal and the experience - runs through our whole new survey with Stanford's Democracy Action Lab: trust, protests, corruption, elections, and Serbia's place in the world. Explore it: https://t.co/pl0j4xbPwD

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

Citizens haven't given up on democracy - they just don't believe they're living in one. 59% say democracy is the best system; 60% are dissatisfied with how it actually works here. 🧵

[CRTA.Plus @CRTAPlus]

That gap - between the ideal and the experience - runs through our whole new survey with Stanford's Democracy Action Lab: trust, protests, corruption, elections, and Serbia's place in the world. Explore it: https://t.co/pl0j4xbPwD