One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Yes. Scripture treats the last days as the entire era since Jesus’ first coming and Pentecost (Hebrews 1:2, Acts 2:17). The birth-pain signs He listed—wars, famines, earthquakes, false teachers, worldwide gospel reach—along with Israel’s 1948 restoration match conditions many see intensifying now. The final sequence itself stays unknown and sudden.
There's a saying on American social media:
"Be the American that Japanese people think you are."
I'm Japanese. I've lived in Tokyo my whole life.
So let me tell you what we actually say about you, when you're not in the room.
"When someone falls down on the street, we pretend not to see. We're protecting their pride. Americans run straight at them. They don't care about the pride. They care about the knee." (Office worker, 38)
"An American will stop four lanes of traffic for a family of ducks. And then everyone in the cars claps for the ducks." (Taxi driver, 61)
"If you lend an American a pen, you will never see it again. If you need a kidney, they'll ask your blood type." (Nurse, 45)
"At kids' soccer games, they cheer when the other team's kid scores. The other team's parents look confused. Then they cheer too." (Youth soccer coach, 52, lived one year in Ohio)
"A man sneezed on a bus in Chicago. Eleven strangers said 'Bless you.' He said 'thank you' eleven times. Nobody on that bus thought this was strange." (University student, 21)
"At an airport in Texas, I watched a soldier try to pay for his lunch. The cashier said someone already had. He asked who. She said, 'Somebody who didn't want you to know.'" (Retired teacher, 70)
"American fathers cannot braid hair. But they will watch a video at midnight for an hour so their daughter's hair looks right on picture day." (Hair stylist, 33)
"I ran the Chicago Marathon once. Strangers stood in the cold for hours holding signs for people they will never meet. At mile 20, a man I'd never seen read the name off my bib and screamed it like he'd raised me." (Runner, 48)
"When Americans get lost, they ask a stranger. If the stranger is also lost, they become a team." (Tour guide, 39)
"They ask the waitress her name. And then they remember it." (Restaurant owner, 66)
And one more. From my father. He's 76. He doesn't say much about anything. This is the longest thing I have ever heard him say about another country.
"Every time something terrible happens in America, I watch the news, and I look for one thing.
The people running toward it.
There are always so many."
So, America.
You don't have to become the Americans we think you are.
We're not imagining you.
We're remembering you.
@MeghanMcCain I disagree.
Democrats are winning because communism sounds lovely in the head to those who have never experienced it physically.
People just are not afraid of what has not fully come yet.
@RepYassAnsari Maybe Republicans should just theirs now while they still have time since Democrats are making it plain that's what they want to do instead of doing their jobs.
The rule of law prevails. Separation of powers does not allow judges to take control of core executive branch powers. We will conduct our criminal investigations without fear or favor.
A message to every federal agent operating on Trump’s behalf in California:
If you illegally tamper with our ballots, the President won’t be able to save you. Trump can’t pardon you out of California justice.
🚨NEW FILING🚨
John Bolton's allies are pleading with a judge to NOT give him prison time in his sentencing memorandum.
Instead, they're begging for probation.
Who's vouching for Bolton?
Fmr Vice President Mike Pence, “I would respectfully encourage his Honor to show leniency at sentencing so that John may live out his remaining days surrounded by family and friends and in continued service to the vital national interests and values of the United States. I hope these reflections are helpful to the court."
Karl Rove, "It is my prayerful hope that his many years of service and sacrifice will enter into your sentencing deliberation."
Mitt Romney, " I believe that he is a man of uncommon character who served his country with honor and distinction."
Fmr Congresswoman Liz Cheney, “a tremendous public servant and patriot with a deep dedication to our Constitution,” who in all her experiences, “has conducted himself with honor, honesty and high integrity.”
Fmr Congressman Adam Kinzinger, "John has spent much of his adult life trying, according to his convictions, to make the United States safer and stronger. That service does not erase the circumstances that bring him before the Court, but . . . it should be an important part of the Court’s consideration of the man who stands before it."
Governor Larry Hogan, “[i]t is my hope that Ambassador Bolton’s strong history of public service and personal integrity will, on balance, prompt the Court to mitigate the sentence that the Court ultimately imposes.”
Fmr Chief of Staff to the Vice President of the United States Bill Kristol, "I think leniency in this case would be well-deserved and would produce a just outcome."
Bolton pleaded guilty to a single felony count under the Espionage Act for the unlawful retention and transmission of national defense information.
Thank you for bringing us together, @vonderleyen. AI adoption and preparedness have to move together. We can’t anticipate everything, but we can build the institutions, technical capacity, and safeguards to respond as the technology advances.
Son: Dad, who was the most mesmerizing female singer of the 1970s?
Dad: Son, some women didn't just sing. They put an entire audience under a spell. Watch this.