CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

Market Researcher. Creator of The Convergence Portfolio & Too Big To Fail on @joinautopilot

Joined January 2025

255 Following

93 Followers

43 Posts

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

about 15 hours ago

First Month since inception for the Convergence Portfolio. Follow live with @joinautopilot https://t.co/ns9XclVzoL

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

about 17 hours ago

CTK Capital Intel Report Tuesday, June 30, 2026 The Dow gained 8.9% in the first six months of the year, posting its best first-half performance since 2021. The S&P 500 climbed 9.6%, while the Nasdaq outperformed with a more than 12% advance. The Russell 2000 surged nearly 22% — its best first half since 1991. Iran remains the wildcard. President Trump again threatened Iran with annihilation following US attacks on Iranian military targets in retaliation for Tehran's latest strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's neighbors Kuwait and Bahrain reported incoming missiles and drones overnight. WTI futures are down more than 30% quarter-to-date, heading for their worst quarterly performance since Q1 2020. It marks the fifth negative quarter out of the last six. Oil collapsing is the single most important inflation relief story of the quarter — but the ceasefire violations are a reminder the deal is not yet locked in. Chip stocks close out their best first half on record. A recent deal between Broadcom and Alphabet's Google for its own custom AI chip, the TPU, is getting positive feedback from analysts. "AVGO and Google signed a long-term agreement for future generations of TPUs through 2031 guaranteeing minimum revenue over those years," Jefferies wrote. Micron became the most bought stock among retail traders on Monday, seeing roughly $30.8 million in inflows. One analyst predicted HBM supply per AI server will surpass 500 gigabytes by 2030, and that supply-demand balance for memory components may not return before then. "It is too early to be fearful. There will be a downcycle in AI, but the feared over-supply scenario is now one for 2030, or perhaps 2H29 at the earliest." Deep Dive — $ONTO : +45.6% Since Inception in the Convergence Portfolio. $ONTO is the best-performing position in the Convergence Portfolio since launch — and it is not close. In a portfolio where DRAM is up 17.3%, PENG is up 29.6%, and CAT is up 18.9%, Onto Innovation is +45.6%. That number deserves a proper explanation because it is built on more than momentum. Onto Innovation makes the inspection and metrology equipment that verifies AI chips — specifically HBM memory stacks and advanced 2.5D/3D packaging — were assembled without defects. As chips move from flat designs to vertically stacked architectures, the cost of an undetected defect rises exponentially. A flaw caught mid-assembly costs far less than one discovered after final packaging. That dynamic makes Onto's tools structurally non-optional for every leading-edge chip manufacturer building AI infrastructure. The specific catalyst behind the +45.6% since inception: in Q2 2026, Onto launched the Dragonfly G5 — a next-generation inspection platform detecting defects as small as 150nm, down from 800nm in prior generations. A leading HBM manufacturer completed a head-to-head competitive evaluation and selected Dragonfly G5 for its entire HBM4 production ramp, displacing the previously established tool of record with double-digit unit order commitments. Analysts responded: Oppenheimer raised its price target to $450 from $370, keeping an Outperform rating, citing G5 demand acceleration. Advanced packaging revenue is projected to grow more than 50% in 2026, driven by increasing use cases in 2.5D logic, HBM, and other advanced packaging technologies. The company's pipeline now comprises more than 15 applications across more than 10 customers. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 6, 2026. The key test: maintenance of guidance at midpoint +20% YoY and confirmation of full-year growth of over 30% in advanced packaging. Progress on mass production shipments for the Dragonfly G5 will be the most closely watched item on the call. The honest caution stands as always — at 34x forward earnings the stock is pricing in execution, not hope. The August 6 report is where ONTO proves whether the +45.6% run is the beginning of the thesis or the peak of it. The markets are closed Friday July 4 for Independence Day. Thursday brings the June jobs report — the most important economic number of the shortened week. Investors will watch whether any encouraging signs of inflation coming down can ease concerns about a September rate hike, which Fed funds futures are now pricing in. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on July 6. And UNH reports July 10. Both portfolios are live on Autopilot. Follow the Convergence Portfolio 👇 https://t.co/yZGoGRwnD5 Follow the Too Big To Fail Portfolio 👇 https://t.co/RDPZg5kj4e Educational only. Not financial advice.

135

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

1 day ago

CTK Capital Intel Report Monday, June 29, 2026 The close: The Dow jumped 306.63 points, or 0.59%, to close at a fresh record above 52,000 for the first time ever. The S&P 500 gained 1.18% to 7,440.43, while the Nasdaq rose 2.07% to 25,820.14. sec Nasdaq 100 +2.26%. Russell 2000 +0.01%. Everything green — chips led the comeback and a new Dow milestone was set. Last week was a -4.6% Nasdaq loss, a chip rout, and five straight red sessions. Monday erased a significant chunk of that in a single day. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained more than 3%, reversing an earlier decline in the session. Astera Labs, KLA and Applied Materials rose about 16%, 12%, and 11% respectively to lead the turnaround. sec Tesla jumped more than 7% as part of a broader relief rally for technology stocks. U.S. officials said both sides paused hostilities and allowed commercial vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz freely, following clashes over the weekend that threatened to derail negotiations. Oil edged higher on Monday after renewed military strikes between the U.S. and Iran reignited concerns over crude supplies. WTI rose 1.3% to $70.17. Brent climbed 0.78% to $72.55. sec Oil is still below $75 — the macro green light holds — but the weekend activity is a reminder that the deal remains fragile until formally signed. Alphabet made its debut in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, climbing nearly 5% on its first day trading as a Dow member. Comcast shares rallied 4.4% after the company said it would spin off its media and tech businesses into two publicly traded companies. Alphabet joining the Dow is the most significant index composition change since Apple was added in 2015. Every Dow-tracking fund on earth now holds GOOGL automatically. Investors will keep an eye on this week’s jobs report. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a hike as soon as September, after Chair Warsh signaled a greater focus on inflation than investors were anticipating. Any encouraging signs of inflation coming down can ease those concerns. FinanceCharts The holiday-shortened week heading into July 4th — the U.S.’s 250th anniversary — could mean lower trading volumes and wilder swings. Portfolio managers rebalancing into quarter-end could also add volatility. Follow the Too Big To Fail Portfolio 👇 https://t.co/RDPZg5jLeG Both portfolios are live on Autopilot. Follow the Convergence Portfolio 👇 https://t.co/yZGoGRvPNx Educational only. Not financial advice.

587

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

3 days ago

@DollarCostAvg $DRAM

685

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

3 days ago

@GrindeOptions $UBER or $PLTR

237

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

3 days ago

👀👀👀

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

4 days ago

Too Big To Fail Portfolio: +6.28% since inception.

101

CTK Capital Intel

@CTKCapitalIntel

5 days ago

CTK Capital Intel Report Friday, June 26, 2026 The Close: The Nasdaq dropped 0.24% to close at 25,297.62 — its fifth consecutive losing session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,354.02. The Dow shed 44.51 points or 0.09% to end at 51,876.11. For the week: the S&P 500 slid nearly 2%, the Nasdaq fell 4.6%, and the Dow outperformed, rising 0.6%. Russell 2000 +0.07% — essentially flat. Tech had its worst week in months. Chips led the selling. Chip stocks sold off Friday amid mounting concerns over the rising cost of AI infrastructure. Sandisk fell 10%, Arm lost nearly 4%, Marvell dropped 5%, and Micron — which surged Thursday on blowout earnings — fell more than 5% on Friday. The driver was a specific fear: soaring semiconductor prices could eventually squeeze the margins of major technology companies. At the same time, healthcare stocks posted their best week in about four years, gaining more than 7%. Industrials, financials, and small caps all held up. The rotation is not subtle anymore. Chip stocks were weaker Friday after a New York Times report that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO to next year because of SpaceX's poor performance following its debut and overall volatility in AI-related shares. A US official told MS NOW that Iran was behind an attack on a cargo ship near the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil held near $74 Brent despite the incident — markets are treating it as a provocation within the ceasefire framework rather than a full deal collapse. Watch closely over the weekend. Any escalation that closes the Strait again would reverse oil's decline and re-introduce the inflation pressure that took three weeks to unwind. Three catalysts define the week. UNH reports July 10 — the first major Convergence Portfolio earnings event. Watch the Medical Care Ratio. All TBTF banks report July 14. The most important day of Q2 earnings season for both portfolios. Both portfolios are live on Autopilot. Follow the Convergence Portfolio 👇 https://t.co/yZGoGRvPNx Follow the Too Big To Fail Portfolio 👇 https://t.co/RDPZg5jLeG Educational only. Not financial advice.