DMA Consulting

DMA Consulting
BSc, PhD
Developer of the Adaptive Market Projection Model (Beta)
Quant Insights: Stocks/Indices/Crypto

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

@Mr_Derivatives Agreed. 7000 retest back on the table. Atypical 2018 Trump-pattern so far. TBD.

https://t.co/2DsNokv7Ep

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Possible H&S formation. Pre-market has broken/testing the rising trendline. Hold above the pink zone (~7,250) = bulls stay in control. A break below = potential gap fill to 7,000. TBD.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

@Mr_Derivatives Hut8 is a scalp/swing dream but needs to break and hold above 100. 25% run since late August.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

Sub MoM target. As per June: "To see significant progress toward 2%, we’d need sub 0.17% or negative MoM prints. A potential Iran deal + sharp drop in oil prices could help accelerate that via lower energy CPI." Base effect will work in favour of the Feds going forward but real effects will be linked to oil price. TBD

https://t.co/gFrluToaA0

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$CPI $SPX $SPY Even if US CPI hits the exact 0.17% MoM needed for 2% annualized inflation, YoY will still rise short-term due to base effects, easing to ~3.7% by Dec 2026 — still well above target. To see significant progress toward 2%, we’d need sub 0.17% or negative MoM prints. A potential Iran deal + sharp drop in oil prices could help accelerate that via lower energy CPI. Disinflation is coming… but likely slower than hoped.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

@TedPillows Long term descending channel..50k is pretty much the center. https://t.co/v1w2DvIHHq

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC Bearish continuation still dominates the trend.

Daily: Bear pennant breakdown testing lower support at ~$63K.

Weekly: Next major support near the 200W SMA (~$60K), just outside the long-term descending channel formed off the 2021 & 2024 highs. The channel sizing up to be a potential bottoming zone (shaded box). TBD.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Possible H&S formation. Pre-market has broken/testing the rising trendline. Hold above the pink zone (~7,250) = bulls stay in control. A break below = potential gap fill to 7,000. TBD.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

@TedPillows Published plan until the Q4. https://t.co/IgeK2RO7Bm

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Treasury drawdown pause followed by a late summer/early fall outflow.
https://t.co/ybTGVIGB2G

CASH BALANCE
Treasury is assuming a $900 billion cash balance at the end of June. However, based on current projections for the upcoming refunding quarter, Treasury estimates that the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak at $1 trillion (plus or minus $50 billion) in late July.  This figure is consistent with Treasury’s long-standing cash balance policy and is driven by the large outflows expected to occur at that time.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$CPI $SPX $SPY Even if US CPI hits the exact 0.17% MoM needed for 2% annualized inflation, YoY will still rise short-term due to base effects, easing to ~3.7% by Dec 2026 — still well above target. To see significant progress toward 2%, we’d need sub 0.17% or negative MoM prints. A potential Iran deal + sharp drop in oil prices could help accelerate that via lower energy CPI. Disinflation is coming… but likely slower than hoped.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC Follow up. The long-term descending channel formed off the 2021 & 2024 highs still sizing up to be a potential bottoming zone (shaded box). TBD.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC Bearish continuation still dominates the trend.

Daily: Bear pennant breakdown testing lower support at ~$63K.

Weekly: Next major support near the 200W SMA (~$60K), just outside the long-term descending channel formed off the 2021 & 2024 highs. The channel sizing up to be a potential bottoming zone (shaded box). TBD.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Rally continues with new all-time high at 7,563.62. Price remains well above the weekly EMA stack so the bullish structure is intact. That said, the volume profile could use some time to mature at these levels. Thinning volume on the push higher is worth watching. TBD.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC Confirmed. 48/100 day support failed with a retest of the lower channel. Expect some consolidation. Watching for confirmation of support. TBD.

https://t.co/PinuhgYlvm

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC Multi 200 day rejections with 48 and 100 day support. Retest of the lower channel looking more likely if support breaks down. TBD.
https://t.co/5bVxP2MvI7

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC Multi 200 day rejections with 48 and 100 day support. Retest of the lower channel looking more likely if support breaks down. TBD.
https://t.co/5bVxP2MvI7

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC 200 day EMA rejecton. Price back in the channel with 8 EMA support. Watching for direction.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Clean bounce off the first gap.
https://t.co/TlVxH6liY5

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Weekly fair value gaps offering support back to the pre-correction high.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Weekly fair value gaps offering support back to the pre-correction high.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$CPI $SPX $SPY Even if we hit the exact 0.17% MoM target every single month from here on (the pace needed for steady ~2% annualized inflation), CPI (NSA YoY) still stays elevated between ~3.3%–4.0% through early 2027. The recent Iran war energy-driven surge has reversed the favorable base effects that were previously working in the Fed’s favor.

https://t.co/0KwK72L0YI

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$CPI Headline CPI (NSA YoY) flat at 2.7%. Base effects will still do most of the heavy lifting into 2026 as those hotter 2025 months slide off the 12-month window. However, MoM usually gets a seasonal kick in the new year (Jan/Feb rebound). Plus, average MoM was higher in 2025 than in 2024. Tariff-related or not, there's still some work to do to get CPI under control if the Fed is serious about hitting that 2% target.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

@Liathetrader Agreed. https://t.co/IIxPXFOzMK

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Moving averages tell the story. Extended.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

@Liathetrader Could be premature. Whether it happens now or later, BTC will likely spend time in the current price range with action from above and below. https://t.co/VD4MT3Sbb5

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$BTC The gap near 80,000 continues to populate but the AMPM daily range is near the low side. The future likely holds increased volatility in this range.

https://t.co/2MtdPC5mVF

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY Treasury drawdown pause followed by a late summer/early fall outflow.
https://t.co/ybTGVIGB2G

CASH BALANCE
Treasury is assuming a $900 billion cash balance at the end of June. However, based on current projections for the upcoming refunding quarter, Treasury estimates that the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak at $1 trillion (plus or minus $50 billion) in late July.  This figure is consistent with Treasury’s long-standing cash balance policy and is driven by the large outflows expected to occur at that time.

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) liquidity injections are lining up with the SPX rally. When the government spends down its massive cash pile, that money flow finds it way into the markets. Not the core of the rally but certainly the grease. Follow the data..follow the money. TGA drawdowns = dips will likely be bought.

Early April: ~$206B drawdown → SPX gapped up
Late April–Early May: ~$175B drawdown → second thrust to new ATH.

#TGA #Markets

[DMA Consulting @CVGiles_DMA]

$SPX $SPY U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) liquidity injections are lining up with the SPX rally. When the government spends down its massive cash pile, that money flow finds it way into the markets. Not the core of the rally but certainly the grease. Follow the data..follow the money. TGA drawdowns = dips will likely be bought.

Early April: ~$206B drawdown → SPX gapped up
Late April–Early May: ~$175B drawdown → second thrust to new ATH.

#TGA #Markets