Pau

Former Auditor, currently in Corporate Finance.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Tell me you don't know how to use AI without telling me you don't know how to use AI.

[Ross Hendricks @Ross__Hendricks]

AI is the greatest mass psychosis event in history

Zero productivity gains showing up in the real economy after $3 trillion in spending

Surely the next $3 trillion will fix this though

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Non tech workers are starting to develop their own tools, AI agents, etc, because they can do so with the current AI models (cowork with an AI is a massive opportunity), and companies are willing to invest milions on that. And this is starting now, AI until now was just a test

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

I need to do a long post on this when i get back from my vacations. But from my personal experience (i work in corporate finance, in touch with Tier 1 companies, multi billion companies, as well as financial services providers, and for us the AI inflection point is happening now

[Logical Thesis @LogicalThesis]

I've been a vocal AI bull, the use cases are astonishing, but through recent personal experience I'm beginning to get incrementally bearish on what it means for some of the AI stocks.
AI use will continue to grow and likely in an S-curve fashion, but is it possible we already saw the largest shock of demand vs available supply? As supply continues to grow and the supply-demand imbalance becomes smaller, I wonder if some names that are benefitting from skyrocketing supply growth will begin to see slower growth eventually than the enthusiasm that is being priced in (classic bullwhip effect).
This idea occurred to me as lately I've been using Claude in a professional capacity for nearly 12 hours/day. I'm likely a top 0.1% user of AI. And it got me thinking: ok well I think I'm kind of hitting my upper limit here. How much more AI could I use? I've already set up tons of monitors and daily triggers. I'm using it to power my daily work every minute of the day. How can I personally use this technology more? I may be hitting a plateau personally. Yes, this is anecdotal. But I wonder if others will also hit this point eventually. The adoption of AI use will continue to grow. But at some point you can't use it anymore than the max you can use it. So I'm not saying this collapses tmrw. I'm saying the growth rates of AI usage may eventually start to show decelerating growth (which is normal as we approach law of large numbers). That doesn't mean it happens in the next couple Qs, but in the next year or two as we look out to 2030s? V possible. And stocks are currently trading on 2028 demand expectations. In 2y they'll trade on 2030 expectation. The growth looks good through 2028. But once everyone is ramped up idk. And ofc not everyone is using this yet so that's the main thing, it could remain elevated and maybe you continue to hit strides. So I'm not 100% confident how it plays out. Also maybe robots and inference come to market sooner and that complements slowing human use cases.
Just sort of thinking out loud.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Companies are moving big amounts of the budget to AI, im not talking to about hyperscalers or tech companies im talking about the rest of industries, the budget on AI is increasing year after year and at an exponential rate.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

@EndicottInvests I haven't checked how institutions and retail money has been flowing lately but it could be a rotation, people moving money from one sector to the other which is causing this.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Imho i think the company still has a lot more to offer, its a clear LT hold for me. Not only because of their logistics and network moat but because its clearly resilient to AI, by that i mean that AI adds value to it rather than replacing like it will happen in other industries.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

$MELI is finally paying off, i've been holding for a while now with an average price of around $1.800. Finally these last weeks its starting to pay off, thanks to the latest Q where margins compressed much less while revenues kept growing massively, which marked a turn around.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Bought more $MELi at $1,650 this is a long term play. They are sacrificing current profitability for growth, which is what they need to do, capture every corner of the market. Consider thar the credit business is recognising the lost upfront then over time you earn the interest.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

The volatility in some of them is high but, trading some of them has been very profitable to me and always with the safety net of knowing they are great companies

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Sold some more $DLO at $14.9 for more than a +70%. Still holding a decent amount but i've been buying a lot of semis lately, $SKHY, $NVDA, $LITE, $COHR, $PLAB, $CRDO so i want to increase my cash position in case interesting opportunities come, specially in semis...

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

I have sold some $DLO at $15.3, my intitial entries where at $8.6. So +80%, im still holding a good amount of shares since this is a long term position for me

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

I was buying $HROW at low 20$ in early mid 2025 (you can check my timeline its there), when barely no one knew about it on here. I made huge money with it, and i wouldn't like to miss on another big run if the company keeps executing, just because mgt guidances poorly in the ST

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Added some $HROW at $37.4, back into the portfolio. Not happy with management ST guidances and all the overprimising, but i did some numbers and if they reach the Q4'27 targets or even if they miss them slightly the stock is trading very cheap here (and not even accounting MELT)

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

I come from the finance world, and the lesson number 1 you learn is that at the end of the day what truly matters is that the cash position increases, cashing in!! Thats what matters.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

I would add more $APP, but i already made it a 8-10% position overall. Applovin is in my top 3 stocks that have made me more money, fully confident on this management. Its a FCF machine, which for me it's the most important metric when valuing companies.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Added more $APP at $307, market thinks this is the next $TTD. Might even go lower but will wait patiently, applovin grew revenues +53 YoY in the last Q. The company is trading at NTM 14x EBITDA, 17x PE and 17x FCF, expectec to grow revenues for the next 2 years at a +38% CAGR.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Added some more $LITE at $799, relatively small position still, i need to deep dive more on it before adding good big amounts

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Starter position in $LITE (Lumentum) at $830, they make optical lasers powering high-speed AI data networks. In few words, copper (traditional DCs) is a bottleneck in highspeeds, optical is the future and lumentum is a core company in that space.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

$CRDO, re-entry at $214.8. Buying again after selling the last shares for $276. I will keep adding if it keeps getting cheaper, its a grear AI player and less of a cyclical play than some other companies, which gives me more confidence for the LT.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Sold the final 1/3 of $CRDO for 276$ almost a +40% in two weeks, might go higher but i feel satisfied with this quick profits. If it deeps below 210-220 i might start adding back

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

Enjoying my sunday in Miyajima. Markets are closed, so i allowed myself some fresh air.

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

@HugoRamambason The incremental loans, have to be the new growth loans, not the net movement balance of loans because in the movement there are included repayments, FX, recharges, etc. Which should not be accounted in the calculation of the growth related provision

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

When analyzing companies like $INTR, $NU, $MELI, it is important to understand that the growth on the credit portfolio originates a credit loss provision for new credits (lower net income, lower ROE). That is why the key $INTR KPI is the Rule of 50. ROE % + Growth % around 50.

[Kiko H. de Mello @kiko_himself]

@mr_bid_ Is it just me or is it an uninspiring ROE? Barely over CDI...

[Pau @Caan_Pau]

@HugoRamambason To make it really simple, incremental loans x expected credit loss rate = growth related provision, sum it to the reported net income. (This wo considering the new tax calculation, etc) simple calculation.