Dancing cactus

Science fiction, fantasy, and romance reader.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

7) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Find the full PMC Dashboard at https://t.co/sYT5KNhC7r

Use, edit, improve, and share anything posted. Thank you.

[Muting/Blocking = Self Care @QueeringPsych]

This is my free ongoing blog & video series where I’m breaking down somatic psych theory and showing how to use somatic tools to learn how to support yourself and other people in this way

[Medic Kim @medickimw]

They’re gonna spend 100x more manpower and money to find the UHC CEO shooter than they ever did investigating UHC’s unlawful practices and the deaths they caused.

[Dr. Glaucomflecken @DGlaucomflecken]

I don’t get offended easily, but implying that my content is responsible for somebody’s murder is pretty offensive…and tasteless. Vinay usually crusades against baseless claims with no evidence. I guess this one doesn’t count.

[💖💄 Aoife #ForTinu ♿💜 @Aoiferocksitout]

Thursday again. I miss my sister at heart.
Told you I miss her calling me heiffer.
Please think of @Tinu's wonderful family during this incredibly impossible time.
Please help and support them right now.
💖❤️🦋🦋🌈✨💖❤️🦋🌈✨💖❤️🦋
https://t.co/UZQqSElHTv

[Kendra @SurvivingCFS]

Anyway in lieu of the rampant and extreme racism brought on by this tweet I will take this opportunity to beg 🙏🏾:

Can my mutuals (a.k.a the people who know my journey and story) help me by retweeting this Amazon wishlist I have made so that I can have some military MRE’s to have in my room at the nursing home for when I can't get up for meal times? They don't bring us food to our roons. We are required to go sit out in the cafeteria and eat and I have been missing a lot of meals simply by not being able to make that trip when I’m in a flare-up. With the MRE’s I can still get a decent meal from the comfort of my bed with no need for a microwave. I've already gone broke from doordash and need a better option for feeding myself while I’m here. Here is the link if anyone wants to help:

Nursing Home Food - Amazon Gift List - https://t.co/gdt80hVCk0

Thank you!

[Falastin Flip @TOliveFern]

HOOOOOLY SHITTTT
THE NYTIMES!!!!!!! someone at the nytimes is getting fired tonight

[A Left-Wing Account ™️ @PushDemsLeft]

Today is the 7th day that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have continued to arm Benjamin Netanyahu despite the ICC formally accusing him of war crimes, thus making them guilty of war crimes as well.

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Nov 18, 2024

Here's the full dashboard for current U.S. Covid transmission. Feel free to share or improve any of the images and disseminate across platforms.

Full dashboard: https://t.co/jNhNBzP8kR

Thank you. 🙏

[a prednisone hate account @vvictorman_uel]

I was thankfully able to make rent but in that process I left nothing for utilities, groceries, medications, and laundry. if you can spare a bit so I can have actual food in my fridge and pay for my meds I appreciate it greatly

[Tommy Mac @TommyMa95268002]

We executed people at Nuremburg who used the same argument

[Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA @michael_hoerger]

PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Nov 4, 2024

We're seeing an uptick in U.S. Covid transmission with 1 in 115 actively infectious.

The percentage of the population actively infectious has increased from 0.7% last week (based on updated data) to 0.9% this week.

The uptick is barring retroactive downward corrections.

We place the "lull point" as likely around Oct 20, but it could be +/- 2 weeks around that. Looking back at the late-summer wave, you'll see the date of the high point was quite arbitrary, and the same is true for the "lull."

There is presently considerable variation by region and even when examining the same region across different data sources. Some areas are still cooling off, while others are increasing markedly, as one would expect in the peri-lull area. There's also a lot of volatility across other data sources not included in our model (e.g., WastewaterSCAN up 43% nationally from Oct 18-25, but back down on the most recent data point on the 26th).

You'll note two updates in the current PMC forecasting model starting this week. These are described in detail in the technical appendix.

1) Biobot's sun rises again. 🌅 Our composite indicator of Covid transmission had been weighted 40% Biobot and 60% CDC. When Biobot abruptly stopped reporting for several weeks in a row during the summer wave, we were forced to downgrade them to 0% with no data coming in. After weeks of consistent reporting and a near-perfect correlation with recent CDC data (r=.95), we have re-included them in our current case-estimation model at 20% Biobot and 80% weight for CDC. Note, some of our pandemic "running total" estimates are marginally adjusted downward, as Biobot reported a slightly narrower (leptokurtic) late-summer wave. Having two high-quality data sources for estimating current transmission increases precision in real-time estimates and prepares for the eventuality that one source by experience a gap in reporting near the winter peak.

2) Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios. In figure 3 (upper right of dashboard), we have added 50% and 95% confidence bands. See the Technical Appendix for estimation details. Essentially, consider the 50% band (shaded area) the normal variation, and the boundaries of the 95% band (light dashed lines) the worst- and best-case scenarios, barring something nearly unforeseen (approximately 2.5% chance of a worse or better scenario). We encourage non-scientists to provide feedback on that figure, as it is challenging to present more detailed data in ways that are easily digestible. In Version 1 of the forecast (Aug 2023-Aug 2024), we reported several forecasting models and a compositive. It's unclear how helpful this was to readers, as we got surprisingly little feedback on it. With 15 months of forecasting, we now have the data to provide meaningful confidence bands. If helpful, we will keep it. If not, we will change the graphical depiction or replace them.

Info for new readers:

For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at https://t.co/xmDnq5NN8N

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical (median) levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.

Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at https://t.co/xruNpyn4ef

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 10-11 at the above link.

[NDN Silver @WingsNDNSilver]

All right, tonight's inventory selections [and yes, I'm early, because we're finally back on real time].

Today's feature [shown below] was a pair of classic traditional earrings, silver and carnelian.

Tonight, I have 4 works, 3 new, plus a 4th that matches 2 of them perfectly.

[☽ ◯ ☾ Twylite Two-Way Vision ᛑᛗᛛ @TwyliteGalaxy]

PLEASE SHARE. MY FRIEND DESERVES TO REMAIN HOUSED and as a wheelchair user it’s even more dangerous for them to be unhoused because things are already so inaccessible

[🌸Bibi🌸♿ @BibiBlossoms]

It's been about a month since Tinu was taken from us all far too soon. Please don't forget about her and please keep sharing her links!! Her family deserves support!

I just donated another 88$ thanks to sales from the #ForTinu pins and stickers.

Link:
https://t.co/vDZ7Jy4GZO

[DEACTIVATED @thrasherxy]

Protect these students, God. Keep them safe in body, mind and spirit.

[sarah @sahouraxo]

Doctors and nurses.

Doctors and nurses.

This is a Holocaust.