Health Care has a 100% win rate in the back half of midterm election years.
Not 80%. Not 90%. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.
I looked at every midterm year since 2006.
Here's how each sector performed from July to December:
1. Health Care $XLV: +8.46% avg, 100% win rate
2. Industrials $XLI: +7.18%, 80%
3. Materials $XLB: +6.71%, 60%
4. Financials $XLF: +6.68%, 80%
5. Cons. Discretionary $XLY: +6.35%, 60%
6. Cons. Staples $XLP: +6.29%, 80%
7. Utilities $XLU: +6.18%, 80%
8. Technology $XLK: +6.08%, 60%
9. Energy $XLE: +3.26%, 60%
10. Real Estate $XLRE: -7.94%, 0%
The S&P 500 $SPY averaged: +5.95%.
Three things nobody is talking about:
1. Health Care outperforms EVERY sector in midterm H2. Not tech. Not discretionary. Health Care. Five for five.
2. Tech drops to #8. The darling of every other year becomes middle of the pack when midterm volatility kicks in (60% win rate).
3. Real Estate has NEVER been positive Jul-Dec in a midterm year. 0 for 2. Negative every single time.
2026 is a midterm year.
The rotation is underway. It always does.
Every penny counts…
Ray Kroc always said that @McDonald's is a penny business. Sometimes with $1M remodels or 100k digital menu boards, we forget that a penny makes a difference.
I know you are getting sick of me talking about our Fried Apple Pie for America's 250th, but its impact can be felt. In the restaurant biz, average check size is a key metric. To increase it, you can raise prices, introduce higher-priced products (shift in pmix), or suggestively sell an add-on. That add-on needs to be simple, provide value, be desirable, and create a repeatable purchase. The Fried Pie hits every box.
Almost half of my average check increase has come from this one product this week, driving impact on sales. Here's the crazy part: the promotion starts on Tuesday. We are just in soft launch with no promotional activity, just word of mouth. I have one restaurant selling 5x vs baked.
What are your favorite restaurant add-ons or ones McD should offer?
An Ohio man has been arrested in connection with an alleged plot to detonate explosives and shoot targeted individuals at the White House UFC event. https://t.co/xQhF7gybHF