Caffe' Satoshi

Small shots. Bitcoin only. No noise, Data driven. Do not copy my trades. Do your own research. NOT FINANCIAL/TRADING ADVISE.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Dacoinminster Powerlaw Formula from 2013 puts Bitcoin's line at:

End of 2026: $103,912
End of 2027: $140,636

The line is a magnet. Past tops overshot it by 16x, 9.5x, 4.4x, 1.8x. Past lows sat 17 to 36% below it.

Screenshot this and check it on Dec 31, 2027.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

All the Wall Street big shots once called Bitcoin a scam. Now they want in.

But institutional adoption comes with a catch: more Bitcoin held by intermediaries means more people trusting third parties instead of holding their own keys.

Bitcoin doesn't need anyone's permission. You can still self-custody, transact P2P and stay independent.

Adoption is good. Don't outsource your freedom.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Elon Musk just said Starlink was built for connectivity, not offensive drone strikes. SpaceX has now closed that loophole while continuing to provide Ukraine with a critical lifeline.

Without Starlink, Ukraine’s front line would collapse, Musk said.

SpaceX has done more to support Ukraine’s defence than any private company on Earth. Yet the warmongers demanding endless slaughter offer no realistic path to peace.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

@CryptoGates_io My theory is that the next overshoot will be closer to 2x. Won't keep shrinking.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Dacoinminster Powerlaw Formula from 2013 puts Bitcoin's line at:

End of 2026: $103,912
End of 2027: $140,636

The line is a magnet. Past tops overshot it by 16x, 9.5x, 4.4x, 1.8x. Past lows sat 17 to 36% below it.

Screenshot this and check it on Dec 31, 2027.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

@ByzantineInvest On the 13th Feb 2013 a user called dacoinminster dumps whatever price history he can find into a spreadsheet, lets Excel fit a power trendline, and writes it down:

Price = 4.42 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since Jan 3, 2009)^5.6

The original post back from 2013 👇

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Get more Access, more data and ability to direct dm me and ask me anything:

https://t.co/hRtz8DHt4q

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Oil closed at $116.83 Friday evening. Remember I predicted a US attack on Iran for this weekend days ago. This oil price lever is the same as when the US attacked Iran earlier this year. Markets know...

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

GEOPOLITICS ALERT:
There is credible reporting of military preparations and serious consideration of renewed attacks over Iran from a US & Israel coalition. Even before the US Midterm elections.

Israel is pressuring for attacks before their elections next Tuesday (27 Oct).

Trump's approval remains uncertain

If attacks occur most probably they will happen after the Friday markets close. A further military buildup could increase the risk premium in oil and create volatility in Bitcoin and equities.

An actual attack this time could trigger a much sharper reaction, especially if Iran retaliates against regional energy infrastructure or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

However looking at how Bitcoin reacted in the past, it seemed that Bitcoin drops drastically at the moments attacks are announced, due to the fact that bitcoin trades 24/7 it gets volatile on such news. Nevertheless, it recovers very quickly after the attacks and especially is the US or Israel declare that the attacks were limited in scope and the targets have been neutralised.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Elon Musk invests $1 billion in the parent company of CNN gaining an ownership stake. Will he fire staff? Some such as Christiane Amanpour already announced they are leaving.

Is Musk planning to bring autonomous, Real-Time AI Reporting via Grok?

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Saturday morning GM from 🇲🇹Malta the original Blockchain island, I am proud to call this place home nowadays. This is the view from Valletta, the capital city.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Gold closed the week below $4,000 for the first time this year and the RSI is not even in oversold territory. Seems obvious to me there is a rotation going on as wealth is being pulled out of Gold. It's Bitcoin's chance now.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Bitcoin: So far I loved (Rekt)September more than (Up)October

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Following the Putin - Trump agreement for diesel delivery: The 🇲🇹Malta-flagged (yes I live in Malta😉) Agioi Fanendes tanker loaded approx 40,000 metric tons of diesel from Primorsk on the 33nd October.

It has signaled New York as its final destination and is now in the Baltic Sea.

It may reach the US in time before the mid term election, but I doubt if just one shipment of diesel will bring the price down for Americans to even notice.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

October is eating Bitcoin alive in the ETF data. And yet here we are at $81,200.

$1.07 billion bought Monday and Wednesday.

$773 million sold Thursday and Friday.

Net result of the most volatile week in months: Bitcoin down $2,800.

That is a 3.3% move on $1.8 billion of two-way institutional flow.

Nearly $2 billion moved through Bitcoin ETFs this week alone. Price barely flinched.

This market has the deepest institutional bid it has ever had. Every seller is getting absorbed. Every dip is getting bought. Not immediately. Not cleanly. But consistently.

The bears have had every catalyst imaginable this month. Oil at $102. Yields at 5.36%. Middle East escalation. Two $600M outflow days. Bitcoin is at $81,200.

In May and June this year, sustained outflows of this size sent Bitcoin from $81,000 to $59,000.

Today the same outflows are holding it at $81,200.

Something has changed structurally. The bid is deeper. I see this support floor being stronger.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

@nazjitsu you would be surprised!

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Did you know? In reality there is no Bitcoin sitting in your Bitcoin wallet.

Not one satoshi.

Your wallet doesn't store coins. It stores the keys that allow you to spend Bitcoin recorded on the blockchain.

When you send Bitcoin to someone, no coins physically move from one wallet to another. The network verifies the transaction and updates which outputs can be spent, and by whom.

Think of your wallet as a keyring, not a container.

That's why losing your phone doesn't necessarily mean losing your Bitcoin. If you have your recovery phrase, you can restore your wallet on another device.

But the reverse is also true. Someone can steal your Bitcoin without ever touching your phone. If they get your private keys or recovery phrase, they can spend your Bitcoin from anywhere in the world.

And here's the part people often overlook: the blockchain doesn't know who you are. It only verifies that a transaction meets the rules.

Your keys give you control. Your recovery phrase protects your access. Lose both, and your Bitcoin could be permanently out of reach.

Not your keys, not your coins.

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

Bitcoin has a curious habit.

Look at the chart. After the last two U.S. midterm elections, BTC went on to rally hard.

2018 midterms: followed by a mega bull run.

2022 midterms: followed by a rally.

Now the next midterms in a few days.

History doesn't repeat perfectly. But if this pattern holds, the next major Bitcoin BULL could be closer than people think. 👀

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

The first Russian diesel tanker from the deal Trump signed with Putin is now headed for the United States. Will this bring prices relief?

[Caffe' Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

The UAE just led a global crackdown on online fraud that identified more than $39 BILLION in suspected fraud-linked funds and digital assets.

Operation Confrontation Ghost ran for three months, bringing together law enforcement from 30 countries, INTERPOL and private-sector partners to target AI-powered scams, financial fraud and online sextortion.

The results:

• 960+ arrests worldwide
• 123.7 million fraud attempts thwarted
• 4,126 bank accounts blocked
• 29 suspected fraud centres raided
• 15,500 victims identified

Investigators also shut down more than 570 social media accounts and exchanged 9,000 pieces of intelligence across borders.

The operation targeted criminal networks exploiting technology to scam victims, steal money and blackmail people online.

These networks often operate across multiple countries, making international cooperation essential.