Çağdaş Glm

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@Danny_Crypton Me

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@traderomercan Harika 👏👏

[🕵️GEM DETECTER🕵️ @gem_detecter]

JUST IN: $110B added to the total crypto market cap in just a couple of hours.

A promising start to the week ahead.

[🕵️GEM DETECTER🕵️ @gem_detecter]

Imagine the amount of mind-share Terafab will garner in the coming days.

[🕵️GEM DETECTER🕵️ @gem_detecter]

How did I make my first $1,000,000 with just $0 from 2020?

My true story. Many folks lose their motivation because of the market, and I was almost broke and felt the same just 3 years ago.

Read till the end to know the 7 most important rules that attracted my must-first $1M 🧵

[The Solana Post @thesolanapost]

🚨 $USELESS (@theuselesscoin) records the strongest 24H rebound among the top 20 Solana memecoins.

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

$PEPE and $USELESS led the initial aggressive memecoin surge we had at the beginning of this year

the same thing seems to be repeating itself

except this time USELESS is going to be featured on the Atletico Madrid jersey during their hotly anticipated game with Barcelona in ~2 weeks

that game is apparently going to be watched by about 100 - 300 million people globally

that's a crazy amount of normies and raving football fans that will suddenly be introduced to a cryptocurrency named 'useless'

this is also happening after prominent real estate tycoon and billionaire Barry Sternlicht ($3.2 billion net worth) mentioned USELESS coin in a CNBC interview just a few weeks ago

believe it or not, USELESS is slowly seeping into the mainstream

and it's the perfect memecoin to ignite the next wave of aggressive memecoin fervor among normies

[Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 @theunipcs]

'the LORD gave, and the LORD hath taken away; blessed be the name of the LORD' — Job 1:21

yesterday's liquidation event is the most brutal i've witnessed in my time in crypto

i got wiped out on ALL my perps positions

literally everything

eight figures: $30 million+ at peak uPnL if realized, or well above $15 million just before the liquidation started

100% of the following perps position got wiped:

- $BONK
- $FARTCOIN
- $POPCAT
- $PNUT
- $CAT
- $APEX
- etc

i lost maybe 80% of my $ASTER position that i used as a collateral on a DeFi lending protocol

i took out the remaining (~$1 million), fully liquidated it and rotated it into $BONK and $4 because i think i get better R/R from both from here on out:

- BONK because i refuse to be a 'bonk guy' without BONK exposure, and i remain convinced in my deca-billion-dollar target for it. i will continue to add more over time, God willing
- $4 because i remain strongly convinced that BNB season continues until the end of this quarter and i think $4 is the most asymmetrical bet to capitalize on that

thankfully the overwhelming majority of my $USELESS coin position is held in spot, so i didn't record significant loss on that — maybe with the exception of mid six figures worth of uPnL i had in perps accounts

i am still resolutely convinced that $USELESS is THE memecoin to watch for outperformance from here on out, that it is a multi-billion-dollar narrative currently trading for pennies on the dollar, and that it will end the cycle being a top 5 memecoin at the barest minimum i.e. certainly has a lot more than 10x upside from here. so i’m glad contagion there was contained for me!

what happened yesterday?

everyone blames the recent Trump-China tariffs, but this isn't the first time we've had that this year

and the Trump tariff comments certainly shouldn't have been responsible for such a massive nukage across almost the entirety of altcoins and memecoins in the space

a lot of altcoins crashed 70 to 99% in minutes, when $BTC and $ETH barely crashed 13%

$ATOM, for example, crashed from $4 to $0.001 on top exchanges like Binance — a 99.9% crash in minutes. no one could have humanly responded to that!

it is also worth noting that this massive altcoin/memecoin crash was EXCLUSIVELY on CEXs. these altcoins did not come close to hitting these levels on spot DEXs, so yesterday's liquidation was almost certainly due to MM/CEX liquidity issues

why it was unprecedented (market mechanics)

many people reported being massively affected, especially since exchange systems broke across the board: stop losses failed, orders didn’t fill, margin couldn’t be added, and platforms became unusable within minutes. the entire liquidation cascade happened so fast that almost no one had time to react, something i don’t think we’ve ever seen at this scale before

i was in front of my screen, took a short break, came back to the screen to see the nasty wick about 10 minutes later, then realized i've been liquidated on EVERYTHING i had in perps

it is the craziest crypto event i have witnessed, ever!

it was worse than COVID, which was a black swan event

you could say whatever you want about this event: you can call it manipulation, unnatural, or whatever else

you would be right tbh

however, whether or not manipulation played a role doesn’t change what i have to do next: as a trader, i am only ultimately concerned about things i can actually control

of course it's easier to point out how it all wasn't my fault and how someone else was responsible, but how does that help me grow as a trader? i win if i make money trading, i lose if i lose money trading. end of!

i'm sure we will be hearing more about exactly what happened yesterday night, which will hopefully help give some people closure

i wish i didn't have to write about this:

this will likely be one of the most viral tweets coming out of this event

many have waited for this moment: 'he is so greedy!'

and there will be an army of people mocking me with 'I TOLD YOU SOs'

but write i must, for a few reasons:

1. a key part of the 'bonk guy' persona and identity i have built is one of utmost transparency around my trades, so others can learn

2. while i lost a fortune in the liquidity wipe event, i have a very diversified basket of alts across perps and spot. i'll be fine; my spot assets are safe. but i think there are people who lost literally everything they have right now that might be having very bad and nasty thoughts, and them seeing a voice like mine at this time just might give them hope

i want to be very clear:

1. i do not need your empathy. i appreciate that some would have the thought, but i do not need people messaging me to empathize with me over this

2. i do not need donations or financial support. it was a massive loss, but i'm okay

i also want to emphasize that i'm in a very good mental state right now, as difficult as that might be for many to believe

i've always been very detached from money and material things, and that makes it easy to cope with situations like this

at the end of the day, my $BONK trade was a trade in which i went from $16k to a peak 8-figure PNL

contrary to what seems to be the most common belief here, it isn't my most impressive trade. if i made it before, i can make it once again!

could i have foreseen exchange systems crashing and nuking the most liquid altcoins and memecoins in the market 70 - 90% in mere minutes before anyone could react? no!

could i have maybe done a few things differently leading up to this event? maybe

however, i am a big believer in focusing on what *could* happen and taking action to get there instead of focusing on what *has* happened

the past is the past, and what has happened has happened

there are a lot of changes i’ll be making to my systems as a result of this: less dependence on leverage, sharper risk management, and a stronger focus on protecting my positions from exchange-side risks going forward

all that matters is what happens from here on out...

i remain very optimistic about the market

i do not believe the bull run is over, nor do i think the Q4 rally is out of the picture

so what do i do from here?

lock in more than ever before, be buried deeper in the trenches, and most importantly have fun while i do it!

if there is one thing i have learned after being in this industry for multiple cycles, it is that there is always new opportunities: every day, every week, every month

i have always been one to love a challenge, and i guess this is another one for me and an opportunity to once again prove myself — not to internet strangers, but to myself

this event has not dampened my spirit, not in the slightest. if anything, it has strengthened my resolve to get back in the ring, fight, and win bigger

i will make it all back, and more!

for those who are in a similar situation, who either lost a fortune or lost it all, i have some words for you:

PERSIST

SURVIVE

DON'T GIVE UP

if you need to take a break, please do

if you're struggling to hold it in, please seek help

above all, pay special attention to yourself and focus on your health

i know it will take a while for the gravity of what happened to hit many, but a philosophy that has always helped me to survive massive drawdowns is internalizing all of these crypto gains as just numbers on the screen — until it is realized at least!

i know they can have very real consequences in the real world if/when cashed out, but right now i think internalizing it as just numbers on the screen would make dealing with the loss more bearable

you made it before, so yes YOU can make it again

the most profitable period of the cycle is still well ahead of us

we are all going to make it

and you are going to have me along on this journey with you, if that matters to you!

if there’s one thing this taught me, it’s that no matter how prepared you think you are, you’re never fully protected from systemic shocks — but you can always control your response. i’ll be rebuilding my framework with that truth in mind!

i am once again an underdog, and this is not the end of my story

GOD WILLING

[ALTSTEIN @Altsteinn]

$HYPE back above $40 🔥

[ALTSTEIN @Altsteinn]

this bull market doesn’t even concern $PIPPIN at all 😂 it’s busy free falling to our $0.1 target

+61k% profits from the short so far 🔥

[ALTSTEIN @Altsteinn]

I gave you $PNUT at $2.7m, it went to $2.5B. 915x

I gave you $NEIRO at $2.5m, it went to 1.2B. 500x

I gave you #Titcoin at $450k, it went to $95m. 250x

I gave you #retire at $130k, it went to $20m. 150x

I gave you #PETUNIA at $250k, it went to $45M. 180x

I gave you $DOG at $125k, it went to $14M. 110x

And you are still on the FREE TG?

Stay poor or join with the link in the comments.

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@mokkalimokali1 Hocam şimdi bi boğa yapacak mı?

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@WolfMS_ You are the best🏆🫶💪

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@WolfMS_ Wolf💪

[Doruk Tiryaki @dotiryaki]

@excalibur34tr 1’den yarısını 1.31’den kalanı verdim. Ggwp

[Samet Ulucay @sametulutea]

Onchain Risk Metriği: 32 / 100
Bu metriği değişen market koşullarına göre daha hızlı reaksiyon vermesi için güncelledim.

NUPL, MPI, Pi Cycle Top, AVIV gibi verileri çıkardım. Bu nedenle diğer metriklerin ağırlığı artmış oldu.

Meraklısı için detaylar:
✨ Eskiden 10 metrik vardı ve her biri 10 puan etki ediyordu. Şimdi 6 metrik var ve her biri 16.67 puan etki ediyor. Toplamda 100 puan bu şekilde oluşuyor.

🖊️ MVRV için normalde dip olarak 0.5 ve tepe olarak 3.7 alınıyor ancak spot ETF ve daha hızlı kâr alma alışkanlıkları nedeniyle dip için 0.8 ve tepe için 3.2 seviyesini belirledim.

🖊️ Şu anda MVRV 1.9 değerinde ve bunun risk metriğine olan etkisi 7.54 puan.

✏️ MVRV Z-Score değeri eski döngülerde daha yüksek değerlere ulaşıyordu. Bu döngü için 0 ile 6 arasında değer alabileceğini düşünüyorum.

✏️ Şu anda MVRV Z-Score 1.77 değerinde ve bunun risk metriğine olan etkisi 4.92 puan.

🖌️ Kısa (STH) ve uzun (LTH) vadeli SOPR verileri için 3 günlük bir ortalama alıyorum. Bunu gürültüyü engelleyip düzgün sinyal alabilmek için bu şekilde düzenledim.

🖌️ STH SOPR (3D) son yıllarda 0.94 ile 1.06 arasında değerler alıyor. Şu anda 0.97 olduğu için risk metriğine olan etkisi 4.45 puan.

🖌️ LTH SOPR (3D) son yıllarda 0.6 ile 4 arasında değerler alıyor. Şu anda 1.77 olduğu için risk metriğine olan etkisi 5.59 puan.

🔸 Mayer Multiple BTC fiyatının 200 günlük ortalama fiyatına oranını veriyor. Bitcoin'e dair marketin nispeten olgunlaştığını düşününce Mayer Multiple için 0.6 ile 2 arasında değer alır diye düşünüyorum.

🔸 Mayer Multiple şu anda 0.99 olduğu için risk metriğine etkisi 4.64 puan.

🔹 BTC fiyatı ile kısa vadecilerin maliyeti arasındaki oran 0.7 ile 1.4 arasında değer alır diye düşünüyorum. Bunu büyük veya lokal dip ve tepelere bakarak hesaplıyorum.

🔹 Kısa vadecilerin maliyeti $91.5k ve BTC fiyatına $82k dersek bu oran 82/91.5 = 0.9 değerini alıyor. Bu değere karşılık gelen puan 4.67.

---

✨ Bunları topladığımızda 31.8 puana ulaşıyoruz. Eğer BTC yatırımcısı iseniz 40 puan altında parçalı alıp 60 puan üstünde parçalı satarsanız kârlı çıkabileceğinizi düşünüyorum. Ben de portföyümü bu şekilde yöneteceğim.

✨ NUPL & Pi Cycle Top gibi verileri yavaş reaksiyon verdiği için bu hesaptan çıkardım. MPI madenci davranışlarına göre değer alıyor, madencilik giderek uzun vadeli bir iş modeline dönüştüğü için çıkardım. AVIV ise MVRV ile benzer olduğu için hesaplamadan çıkardım.

✨ Umarım takip edenler için yeni versiyon faydalı olur. Ben de fırsat buldukça güncelleyip paylaşacağım.

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@makinvestment Nereye kadar portföy ağırlığınız %70 BTC devam edecek? Daha doğrusu risk portföyünüzün oranı arttırmayı düşüneceğiniz zaman ne zaman olacak?

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@BillMunny7 Allah rahmet eylesin.. Çok üzüldüm..

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@dotiryaki #dotiryakiseason 👑

[Çağdaş Glm @CagdasGulum]

@dotiryaki #dotiryaki season !
👑