Cage

Graphs about why you need #bitcoin

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1) Is Bitcoin Risky? -- There are multiple ways to measure risk in investments. The easiest and most sensible way to picture risk is to think about the range of outcomes over different time frames. See image below

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@Giovann35084111 @stephanlivera Rather than just a single post-2020 split, have you run an expanding window cross-validation with a fixed 4- year forecast horizon? I have done this and found models more predictive than plain power law.

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@GoingParabolic Can we rename bitcoin to COINAI

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@PunterJeff @Strive MSTR sold 32 of 843,706 BTC.
If you held 1 BTC, this is equivalent to selling $2.68 worth (not $268)! An even more ridiculously small amount!

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@another_heifer @marc02200 He didn’t sell any bitcoin, he used cash from STRC issuance

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@saylor @Strategy Next evolution for the $MSTR playbook: Series STRB (Strategy Boost) preferred stock.
6% base yield (PIK-deferrable) + 50% quarterly BTC participation (12% hurdle/high water mark), capped at 25% total payout.
Saves ~550 bps in cash outflows during a bear market vs STRC

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@stephanlivera

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@Excellion @BeefButterBTC @RichardByworth @saylor Rename 1 Sat to 1 Saylor

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@JC47053522 @MatthewWielicki This comment has already not aged well. Current prices at $20,300 / MWh

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@saylor Good boy

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@TheBTCTherapist The bear market was brutal; the price went below the 200WMA and stayed there for over a year. I'm glad I kept purchasing Bitcoin heavily once the price fell below the 200WMA.

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@saylor @APompliano Coming from the guy that forgot to buy Bitcoin last week 😅

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@tnorth @nithusezni I don't agree with your analysis that the perpetual call option embedded into STRK is invaluable. You said it is inevitable given enough time that MSTR will get to $1,000 but you are forgetting that companies do go bankrupt and some don't but never reclaim their ATH.

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@aganstwallst @saylor MSTR up 41% YTD and 644% since ETFs went live. IBIT up 14% YTD and 119% since ETFs went live.

Why would Saylor need to comment on this? Very short sighted.

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@adam3us @HermesLux @TeddyBitcoins @saylor Adam MSTY with dividends reinvested has underperformed MSTR since inception, even assuming no tax. You would make a higher total return just holding MSTR.

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@BritishHodl @HermesLux Do you understand that the only thing that matters is post-tax total return? If you want more income just sell an asset!

MSTY continually underperforms MSTR, you would be better off buying MSTR and selling however much income you would have got from MSTY each month.

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@SilentmodeDM @saylor ETH priced in BTC over the last year…

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@adam3us @TeddyBitcoins @saylor Have you looked at the performance of MSTY w/ dividends reinvested vs MSTR since MSTY inception?? 283% vs 464% in favour of MSTR.

If you think MSTR will go up long term then MSTY is not the right play.

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@thepowerfulHRV It seems that most MSTY bulls don't understand the magic method of turning capital growth into income, which also lets you control how much income you receive! (Hint: Sell some MSTR if you need income!)

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@TheJesseMK @thepowerfulHRV @ryangus_ Why not just borrow at 8-12%, buy MSTR, and sell some each month to pay the loan off. This strategy will usually leave you with more money than buying MSTY.

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@Substryk @thepowerfulHRV This is just dumb for the exact math shown in this post. If you want income from MSTR, just sell some each month. This is better than buying MSTY to do the same with their covered call strategy, but have negative alpha, beta < 1 and trading costs.