Chento | Market Insights📈

Your mentor's mentor.
The OG of trading challenges.
Absolutely nothing to sell you, watch me trade live for free.

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

$500k → $5M in 3 months.
Done. ✅

Point blank: This was the hardest challenge I’ve ever done.

For 3 months straight I got hit with nonstop hate and negativity. Opinions coming from everywhere. Irrational pumps that made no sense trying to shake me out every week.

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Had a blast at the wedding, positiond unchanged good weekend! $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Traveling and wedding today, just landed,

Position update:

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

So at what point do we stop listening to this circus? It’s becoming sad at this point….

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

38 times he referenced it…… 😂

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Positions unchanged,

Ema on 62.8k seems to be stronger than most people’s marriage, if we lose it we see LOWER $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Probability for today 70% down $btc

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

Check him out, if you like to make money…

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Probability for today 70% down $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

CPI came in as expected, normally this would be bearish, but the market is irrational, be careful at opening, still no reason to change my current positioning $btc

The normal and traditional correlation are not correlating right now, dangerous territory:)

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

Keep an eye on these 2 if you like to make money;)

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

Tensions are rising, stocks slowly rolling over, let the fun to 40’s begin….

Positioning excellent still $btc

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

77.1% chance of going down today $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

77.1% chance of going down today $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

During the Friday stream started fresh 50k account, currently at 220k and counting, lets see what New York brings!

Main positions still percectly hedged no reason to touch $btc

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

SL BE and 50% off the table on the small account, New York not looking good $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Position update:

Waiting for 48k:) $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Probability, 70.9% chance of going down $btc

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Educational is ignored way more than numbers.

To keep people entertained, position update below, we in mid range, not touching it.

[Chento | Market Insights📈 @CaioFilhao2]

Probability for today 81.4% up $btc

[Chento @ChentoTrades]

One of the most consistent patterns I notice in markets recently: participants being extremely sensitive to Trump’s posts around war, sanctions, and oil.

Two examples from 2026:
• Trump posted "sit back and relax" mid-escalation with Iran. Oil dropped 1-2% intraday. Within days, missile activity continued and the move fully reversed. The post sounded stabilizing. Reality was not.

• Trump framed Iran as eager to deal. S&P spiked 1.3%. Meanwhile Iran had suspended negotiations and both sides were still exchanging strikes. The macro reality hadn't moved an inch.

This pattern repeated throughout the broader 2026 escalation, posts framing the conflict as contained triggered sharp moves in oil, gold, and equities, while underneath, the conflict was extending and Hormuz disruption risks were growing, not shrinking.

Headlines matter. They can trigger liquidations, force repositioning, and create real volatility. But the mistake is confusing the catalyst for the cause.

The catalyst triggers the reaction. The cause determines whether it sustains.
A ceasefire post doesn't change oil supply routes, production capacity, or gold's structural bid from central banks de-dollarizing. Those forces were building before the post and kept building after the move faded. Positioning was already stretched, the headline accelerated it. It didn't create it.
A headline can move a candle. Macro determines the trend.
$BTC