I am heartbroken.
Our beautiful Achilles passed away in the early hours of Friday morning, aged nine and a half.
His health had declined rapidly in recent months, and he had been struggling to keep food down for a few weeks.
We’ve had a long family getaway to Italy booked for many months – we’re staying in the very south of the country for six weeks. So Achilles and I set off on a 3-day road trip starting at 4am on Tuesday morning from Bath, and our journey took us across England to the Channel Tunnel, and then through France, Switzerland and down the spine of Italy. We stopped many times, enjoyed the spectacular views and countryside together, and as ever I talked to him constantly. [The selfie of us below is from Wednesday night, at our second hotel (near San Marino).]
However on Thursday, Achilles’ already fragile health deteriorated even further. We got to the villa, I unpacked the car and had some time to chill out with him in the garden, and then went to pick up my wife and kids from the airport, who’d flown out that afternoon to meet us. When we all got back to the villa, he was overjoyed to see them. But then within an hour, he began spiralling. We ensured our daughter said a big goodnight and goodbye to him.
And it seemed to me that once Achilles knew that the family were reunited and the children both asleep, he could finally face the pain. It was then an agonizing few hours, before we were able to find a 24-hour vet about half an hour away, and we were able to get him in the car. An x-ray revealed his stomach was knotted and in a mess. They offered to perform surgery, but I told them to put him to sleep there and then. I was with him throughout until the very end, looking into his eyes, always talking to him.
His actions on that final night summed up his noble character. He accompanied me on our mega road trip, he fought through the pain until the family were all reunited, and then only succumbed to it after the children had gone to bed.
Achilles was born in April 2016, the very week I quit my job in the City and became a self-employed trader, working from home full time. I collected him 10 weeks later, and he’s been at my side ever since. He was with me as a single man in my late 20s – the two of us lived alone together for a long while. He witnessed me meet the gorgeous woman who would become my wife, and he was there to welcome our two children into the world with us.
One of my great friends wrote to me over the weekend that Achilles was “a colossus, in every sense” – which I think was a beautiful description.
He was a hothead in his youth, but mellowed with the passing years. Fiercely independent, but equally loyal to the family. A formidable guardian with his physical presence and immense strength, but a gentle giant who let children climb all over him.
He became a legend on Wandsworth Common for five years, then Barnes Common for three, and finally in Bathwick Meadows, in his last 18 months (and of course, all the local pubs in those areas!). It would be unusual for us to go on a walk without anyone commenting on him or stopping us to ask questions about him – his size, beauty and gentle temperament. My mother wrote to me over the weekend, “I wonder how many thousands of photos were taken of Achilles by strangers from all over the world, throughout his life?”
We have too many hilarious anecdotes of Achilles to count, but I have already started writing them all down the past three days, to share with our children one day.
There’s a huge emptiness in our lives that I cannot imagine ever being filled. I’ve lost my best friend, and our children their older brother and protector.
But through the grief, I feel such gratitude that I had the honor of raising and spending the most important decade of my life with such a magnificent soul.
Thank you for everything, Achilles. You lit up the world and brought joy to all who had the pleasure of meeting you, even seeing you from afar. I count myself blessed to have had you as my companion for so long.
Rest peacefully, my beautiful boy.
#NEO +17% on the day, with both U and Au continuing their climbs.
Worth highlighting that the only analyst covering the stock (Shore Cap, initiated coverage last month) has a target price of 13p, versus the current 1p.
The price deck used was Au at $3,200/oz for life of mine, and U at $85/lb.
Gold is currently trading at >$4,900, and uranium at >$86.
13p is far too low.
The analyst also stated:
"Our analysis indicates that Neo Energy is trading at a marked discount to global uranium development peers at a time when the uranium market is supported by positive market fundamentals. Neo Energy’s current enterprise value implies an in-situ valuation of its uranium resources of just $0.15 per lb vs peers at US$14/lb."
UK investors are once again missing the memo from across the pond and Australia that the rare earths industry is on a tear this year...! #MKA#PRE#RBW, do wake up.
To the three leading names - $MPA $USAR $UUUU - in the US that are building out vertically integrated chains as rapidly as possible, both organically and through M&A, I think Mkango is a sitting duck for them.
It covers 4 of of the 5 key links in the supply chain:
1) Mining ✅
2) Refining ✅
3.a) Metal Making ❌
3.b) Recycling ✅✅✅
4) Magnet Making ✅
Only MP Materials is further advanced in building out a vertically integrated chain (it now also has alloy making capabilities), but its NdFeB recycling operation is inferior to Mkango's, economically.
Mkango would offer these major players operations across five nations - most notably its industry-leading, patented recycling tech (held through HyProMag) which could be recycling / producing magnets in as many as six countries, in just three years or so.
I thought I’d provide some much needed context to the many doubters in the UK investment community, about the potential upside for Avacta #AVCT.
Two weeks ago, the FT reported that Merck $MRK is in talks to acquire NASDAQ-listed biotech company, Revolution Medicines $RVMD, for between $28bn and $32bn.
Just like AVCT, RVMD is a “precision oncology” company. It has a ‘platform’ – the Tri-Complex Inhibitor Platform (read up on the detail here: https://t.co/N9j45YXYdu ) – which could be used to generate drugs that could ultimately target as much as 30% of all human cancers.
Key points to note:
- RVMD has three drugs in clinical trials. The lead candidate, daraxonrasib, is currently in three Phase 3 / Registrational Trials. The next two, elironrasib and zoldonrasib, have both generated strong data in P1/1b trials, and RVMD plans to commence registrational trials for each later this year. RVMD also has a fourth drug, RMC-5127, that is shortly to commence a P1 trial (first patient not yet dosed).
- RVMD has zero products approved by the FDA, or by any other regulatory body worldwide.
- The company is therefore pre-revenue.
- RVMD has zero major commercial partnerships ongoing. No major financial backing from Big Pharma, no licensing out of its clinical assets. It has a couple of clinical collaborations (e.g. with Summit Therapeutics in June 2025 for combination studies), but no big money deals.
Now to compare with Avacta:
- Avacta’s pre|CISION platform could generate drugs that could target as much as 85% of all human cancers. 90% of all solid tumours which comprise 90% of all cancer cases; and at least 15% of all blood cancer cases, which comprise the remaining 10% of all cancer cases.
- Its lead clinical drug, faridoxorubicin, has one drug in a Phase 1b trial. It is likely to commence its first registrational P2/P3 trial in Q3 this year. Its second asset, AVA6103, is set to commence a P1a trial in the next 2 months.
- The company has zero approved products and is pre-revenue. It has no major commercial partnerships in place yet.
A key point to note with regards to the pre|CISION delivery platform is its superior flexibility. It can deliver virtually any anti-cancer drug in existence to those 80-85% of all cancer cases, be they small molecules, biologics, etc.
The second key point to note about the pre|CISION platform is its unparalleled targeting ability. It is so targeted that it can both dramatically reduce side-effects of highly toxic warheads, and simultaneously dramatically boost efficacy. It’s not one or the other.
Indeed, earlier this week the Avacta CEO publicly stated,
“There are no other technologies that can deliver cancer treatment drugs directly into the tumor at the concentrations that our payloads enable without causing highly toxic side effects.”
In RVMD’s first registrational trial for daraxonrasib, the first patient was dosed in October 2024. Assuming timelines are hit, Avacta’s lead drug AVA600 is therefore a little less than two years behind RVMD’s lead drug, in terms of clinical development.
Analysts covering RVMD estimate between $8bn and $10bn of annual peak sales for RVMD’s portfolio, by 2035. The single analyst for Avacta that has published AVA6000 sales estimates, has peak sales of $5bn by 2035.
So, Avacta’s first drug, a first-generation pre|CISION molecule using a half-century old chemotherapy as its warhead, is forecast to generate peak sales of at least half that of RVMD’s entire portfolio.
Avacta’s second molecule, AVA6103, is light years ahead of 6000, in terms of potency and targeting. It could likely generate peak sales of several - possibly many - multiples of what 6000 could.
At its current 54p, Avacta has a market cap of $316m. So, the upper end of the rumored range of Merck’s offer for RVMD ($32 billion), would price RVMD at 101 times Avacta’s current valuation.
This is why holders are excited about Avacta at this level. A real world example of 100x uplift in valuation is being played out on NASDAQ right now.
Avacta is presently circa 2 years behind RVMD in its clinical development timeline. But its platform is much more broadly applicable (a TAM almost 3x larger), is much more flexible, and is much more targeted.
Many conclusions could be drawn from all this. One might be that commercial deals for Avacta are not at all necessary to deliver immense returns for shareholders.
Another might be that the UK investment community does not have the capacity to price Avacta correctly (most likely due to a combo of not-deep-enough-pockets; a dearth of interest in backing pre-revenue / unprofitable companies (we are dinosaurs!); and general apathy to learning specifically about cutting edge biotech)
Perhaps AVA6103 going into clinic will change all this. Perhaps a major commercial deal with Big Pharma will.
But this rumoured offer by Merck for RVMD - a company that is not only pre-revenue, but does not even have an approved product to sell - should be immensely encouraging for Avacta holders.