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meowing high conviction stuff, for fun

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@JSkinhoj @Mliebak Flotte violiner. Men nu er noget jo ikke nødvendigvis unfair prissat bare fordi det ligger yderligt i fordelingen :)

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@BobEUnlimited Welcome back from the dark side

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And btw, if u enjoy that view. U sell payers on the skew that is 1y steep, and take out duration via German bonds for a beautiful conditional asw trade. Gg

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I really want to fade the probability that the ECB will ever hike again, but still won’t touch their bonds with a firetong. Does that make me a bull 🐂 or a bear 🐻
Back in the game next week.
Let’s. Dance.

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@JSkinhoj Historisk stort bond free float og aggressiv rate cutting cycle igang. Bund asw -> negative
Thank me later ❤️🪐

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@AalundAnders Hva så med håndbold? Grindsted mod Skanderborg, i bedste sendetid

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@mikaelmilhoj På betfair Exchange kan du se markeds odds, historik og tage en lille spiller også. Vamos Kamala

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It’s tempting to run with the FEDs fifty was a policy error camp, but I’m not disregarding this many indicators saying the same thing. Don’t fight nature. US still needs cheap funding, and they can’t afford higher UR. Steepening will go again 🔥2/2

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Kansas City Fed with their overpowered labor market indicator. Release today suggests weakening trend is still on despite last two stable prints.
This indicator helps me remind myself that last months strong headline NFP is just noise vs the size of the revisions we have seen 1/2

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@AndreasSteno Flip nu aksen basse, jeg får ticks

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@BobEUnlimited So given all these weekly reminders and all your other denial blurb. How does the current fairly aggressive cutting cycle suit you?

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@AndreasSteno Woof woofi wuf woof woooooof

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Which is why I think dovish JPow will stiffarm the hawks this week. If they go 50 and jobs come strong, then he simply skips November. If he only goes 25 and jobs come weak, then he is looking at intrameeting action. #FOMC #FED 2/2

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Couple of good ones stolen from db. Rents indicate OER will continue its path towards 0 q/q. This will drag supercore into deflation as the lags are worn. New forecast from CBO shoots net interest / GDP to new highs. US can’t afford a recession. 1/2

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@MikaelSarwe I really like your charts Mikael, but dont u end up with severe multicollinearity in these models? And are your parameter estimates time varying actually? Thank you for great charts always 🙏

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@AalundAnders Thats how it works in the pond

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@AndreasSteno Ur own data sampling i assume?

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Wrt policy rates, has there ever been a soft landing in the modern era? #FOMC

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@AndreasSteno https://t.co/7fgYAk1ykg

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Paternity taught me that raising a baby is the same as running a short vol book. You always want to get rid of it, but if someone touches it, you end them #sleeplessnights