Two 3-Leg Power Plays | PrizePicks
Core Legs: Martin U5.5 Ks + Osuna U0.5 Ks (batter)
Play 1: Mbappe O1.5 Shots (discounted from 4.5)
Play 2: Messi O32.5 Passes (discounted from 49.5)
Odds for both: +500 (6x)
Play 1 EV: +61.94%
Play 2 EV: +68.90%
The numbers never lie.
DraftKings World Cup Draw Breaker Promo
My play: Algeria ML (3-way)
Odds: +700
If the game ends in a draw, you are returned your stake in BB (up to the promo limit).
My EV Calculations:
Without the promo: ~-10.5% EV
With the promo: ~+3.8% EV
The draw refund adds ~14.3% EV.
Taking a cash out is always negative EV. If it were fair value, the book breaks even and that would be the same value as letting it ride for them on paper. If it were better than fair, theyโre losing, so they definitely donโt offer that. Itโs always worse than letting it ride.
@jhorsewhisperer I started because I thought the new customer promos being offered could be lucrative, so I signed up for a bunch of books with their new customer promos and created a decent starting bankroll. Then I started figuring out how to find value between books which is what I do now.
3-Pick Play | DraftKings Pick6
Shepard U12.5 Points
Williams U5.5 Rebounds
Plum Over 0.5 Points (discounted from 20.5)
Odds: +450 (5.5x)
My Model's Fair Odds: +251
EV: +56.59%
Note: I only play DraftKings Pick6 with discounted lines or promotions.
The numbers never lie.
3-Leg Power Play | PrizePicks
Valverde O43.5 Passes (discounted from 64.5)
Freeman O0.5 Ks (batter)
Ohtani O1.5 TB
Odds: +500 (6x)
My Model's Fair Odds: +299
EV: +50.52%
Note: I only play PrizePicks with discounted lines or promos.
The numbers never lie.
7-Leg World Cup Parlay | FanDuel
Standard Odds: +70368
Boosted Odds: +105565
My Model's Fair Odds: +32283
Standard Odds EV: +117.61%
Boosted Odds EV: +226.29%
Boost adds: +108.68% EV
DraftKings is pricing this at +5575. I'm getting +70368 and +105565.
The numbers never lie.
FanDuel WC Bet & Get for Spain vs Cape Verde
My play: Under 4.5 1st Half Goals
If it loses, you get back $25 in bonus bets.
All you need is any bet on the game of $20 or more, but Iโd recommend $20.
This is -9000 on Fanatics. Iโm getting -4500.
The numbers never lie.
Lowest odds Iโve ever seen:
Cooper Flagg #1 Overall Pick | Fanatics
Odds: -1,000,000
$100,000 to win $10.
Do the Mavericks wish they took Dylan Harper instead?
3-Leg Power Play | PrizePicks
Sean O'Malley O28.5 Sig Strikes (discounted from 64.5)
Olivia Miles U6.5 Asts
Paige Bueckers O1.5 3PTM
Odds: +500 (6x)
My Model's Fair Odds: +298
EV: +50.60%
Note: I only play PrizePicks with discounted lines or promos.
The numbers never lie.
Kylian Mbappe 2+ Goals | DraftKings
Odds: +750
My Model's Fair Odds: +616
EV: +18.71%
Caesars is pricing this at +400. I'm getting +750.
Note: I also have Mane 2+ Goals in this game. Correlated bet โ multiply stakes by 0.77x if taking both.
The numbers never lie.
Sadio Mane 2+ Goals | DraftKings
Odds: +6000
My Model's Fair Odds: +3856
EV: +54.20%
BetMGM is pricing this at +2500. I'm getting +6000.
The numbers never lie.
Update: FanDuel Bet & Get Germany vs Curacao
Under 5.5 1st Half Goals โ game had exactly 4 goals in the 1H (just made it) and finished 8 total, an unusually high-scoring game overall.
Free bonus bets locked in for anyone who followed.