CalmondSeesEdge

Quantitative analyst finding edge in sports markets. Picks, analysis, and documented results. The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

Two 3-Leg Power Plays | PrizePicks

Core Legs: Martin U5.5 Ks + Osuna U0.5 Ks (batter)

Play 1: Mbappe O1.5 Shots (discounted from 4.5)
Play 2: Messi O32.5 Passes (discounted from 49.5)

Odds for both: +500 (6x)
Play 1 EV: +61.94%
Play 2 EV: +68.90%

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

DraftKings World Cup Draw Breaker Promo

My play: Algeria ML (3-way)

Odds: +700

If the game ends in a draw, you are returned your stake in BB (up to the promo limit).

My EV Calculations:

Without the promo: ~-10.5% EV
With the promo: ~+3.8% EV
The draw refund adds ~14.3% EV.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

@EVBettors Great post 👏

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

Taking a cash out is always negative EV. If it were fair value, the book breaks even and that would be the same value as letting it ride for them on paper. If it were better than fair, they’re losing, so they definitely don’t offer that. It’s always worse than letting it ride.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

World Cup NBA odds equivalents:

🇫🇷 France = Celtics ☘️

🇵🇹 Portugal = Knicks 🗽

🇳🇱 Netherlands = Nuggets ⛏️

🇺🇸 USA = Pacers 🐻

🇧🇪 Belgium = Timberwolves 🐺

🇲🇽 Mexico = 76ers 🔴🔵

🇭🇷 Croatia = Magic 🪄

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

The World Cup’s college basketball odds equivalents:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England = Duke 🔱

🇵🇹 Portugal = Michigan 〽️

🇧🇷 Brazil = UConn 🐺

🇳🇱 Netherlands = Arizona 😾

🇺🇸 USA = Iowa State 🌪️

🇧🇪 Belgium = Gonzaga 🐶

🇲🇽 Mexico = LSU 🐯

🇭🇷 Croatia = UCLA 🐻

🇰🇷 South Korea = Syracuse 🍊

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

The World Cup’s NFL odds equivalents:

🇪🇸 Spain = Rams 🐏

🇧🇷 Brazil = Ravens 🐦‍⬛

🇩🇪 Germany = Chiefs 🏹

🇳🇱 Netherlands = Lions 🦁

🇺🇸 USA = Vikings 🔱

🇲🇽 Mexico = Buccaneers 🏴‍☠️

🇨🇴 Colombia = Colts🐴

🇭🇷 Croatia = Commanders 🐷

🇰🇷 South Korea = Jets ✈️

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

The World Cup’s college football odds equivalents:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England = Notre Dame 🍀

🇵🇹 Portugal = Texas 🤘

🇦🇷 Argentina = Indiana 🔱

🇧🇷 Brazil = Georgia 🐶

🇩🇪 Germany = Texas Tech 🔴⚫️

🇳🇱 Netherlands = LSU 🐯

🇧🇪 Belgium = Ole Miss 🐬

🇺🇸 USA = USC ✌️

🇲🇽 Mexico = Florida 🐊

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

@jhorsewhisperer I started because I thought the new customer promos being offered could be lucrative, so I signed up for a bunch of books with their new customer promos and created a decent starting bankroll. Then I started figuring out how to find value between books which is what I do now.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

3-Pick Play | DraftKings Pick6

Shepard U12.5 Points
Williams U5.5 Rebounds
Plum Over 0.5 Points (discounted from 20.5)

Odds: +450 (5.5x)

My Model's Fair Odds: +251

EV: +56.59%

Note: I only play DraftKings Pick6 with discounted lines or promotions.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

3-Leg Power Play | PrizePicks

Valverde O43.5 Passes (discounted from 64.5)
Freeman O0.5 Ks (batter)
Ohtani O1.5 TB

Odds: +500 (6x)

My Model's Fair Odds: +299

EV: +50.52%

Note: I only play PrizePicks with discounted lines or promos.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

@NickeyDyme Beautiful

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

7-Leg World Cup Parlay | FanDuel

Standard Odds: +70368
Boosted Odds: +105565

My Model's Fair Odds: +32283

Standard Odds EV: +117.61%
Boosted Odds EV: +226.29%
Boost adds: +108.68% EV

DraftKings is pricing this at +5575. I'm getting +70368 and +105565.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

@SlightlyPlusEV This is a joke. Right?

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

FanDuel WC Bet & Get for Spain vs Cape Verde

My play: Under 4.5 1st Half Goals

If it loses, you get back $25 in bonus bets.

All you need is any bet on the game of $20 or more, but I’d recommend $20.

This is -9000 on Fanatics. I’m getting -4500.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

Lowest odds I’ve ever seen:

Cooper Flagg #1 Overall Pick | Fanatics

Odds: -1,000,000

$100,000 to win $10.

Do the Mavericks wish they took Dylan Harper instead?

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

3-Leg Power Play | PrizePicks

Sean O'Malley O28.5 Sig Strikes (discounted from 64.5)
Olivia Miles U6.5 Asts
Paige Bueckers O1.5 3PTM

Odds: +500 (6x)

My Model's Fair Odds: +298

EV: +50.60%

Note: I only play PrizePicks with discounted lines or promos.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

Kylian Mbappe 2+ Goals | DraftKings

Odds: +750

My Model's Fair Odds: +616

EV: +18.71%

Caesars is pricing this at +400. I'm getting +750.

Note: I also have Mane 2+ Goals in this game. Correlated bet — multiply stakes by 0.77x if taking both.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

Sadio Mane 2+ Goals | DraftKings

Odds: +6000

My Model's Fair Odds: +3856

EV: +54.20%

BetMGM is pricing this at +2500. I'm getting +6000.

The numbers never lie.

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

@VincentDiprima Appreciate you following along!

[CalmondSeesEdge @CalmondSeesEdge]

Update: FanDuel Bet & Get Germany vs Curacao

Under 5.5 1st Half Goals — game had exactly 4 goals in the 1H (just made it) and finished 8 total, an unusually high-scoring game overall.

Free bonus bets locked in for anyone who followed.