Cal

LUNA/ 3AC / FTX Survivor 🌑

[Bags @0xbags]

so asia slurped the dip on btc and sol
then looked at eth like

[Nachi @alphawifhat]

$ENA - The new kid on the block

With an incredibly successful airdrop campaign, a contentious high yield-bearing strategy and a powerful debut on the markets - $ENA has been the talk of the town.

Whilst there are certainly merits to both sides of the >35% APY sustainability argument, we can’t deny that Ethena is offering a novel and refreshing approach to the stablecoin model. However, what I am more personally interested in is, (if said model plays out as planned) how big can $ENA grow?

Overvalued? Undervalued?
Through some napkin math, I have calculated the ratio of the market cap of several stablecoin governance tokens to its respective stablecoins. It looks like $ENA is now just fairly priced. I’d say it is still undervalued if we take into account the potential growth of USDe, of which I do believe there is a lot of room to grow.
When we look back to the market cap ratio of governance token to stablecoin, it’s obvious that such ratios are higher in a good market and lower in a bad market. In the bull market of 2020-2021, the ratio of MKR and FXS were as high as 100-140%. We can thus consider the current ratio of ~70% for ENA to be a fair ratio. When the market turns more bullish, we will see both (a) an increase in $USDe market cap and thus (b) an increase in the ratio of gov/stablecoin that will inevitably push up the price of $ENA significantly.
The wild success of their shards campaign has also led to fervent participation in the second phase, the ‘Sats Campaign’ of the $ENA airdrop (300m USDe caps for Eth and Mantle pools on Pendle maxed out in half a day), indicating that USDe supply and its valuation will only be going up in the near future.

How big does this get?
So how big can we expect USDe to grow? It will be useful to look at some historical stablecoin dominance data:
- USTC achieved a 6.65% dominance in May 2022.
- DAI achieved a 6% dominance in Nov 2021.
- MIM achieved a 2.1% dominance in Jan 2022.
With the total stablecoin market cap of ~$150b today, that would convert 2% of USDe dominance to $3B and 6% dominance to $9B. USDe currently already has a 1% dominance. Therefore, the potential upside for USDe to grow ranges from ~1.5x to ~5x. In the most bullish case, $9B USDe and 140% market cap ratio means that the price of $ENA will be ~$9. In a conservative case, a USDe valuation of $3B with 100% market cap ratio puts the price of $ENA to be ~$2.

These are also very conservative estimates, particularly because the assumptions above were using present day total stablecoin market cap. To give you an idea of the upside potential, we are still around 25% off the total stablecoin market cap ATHs, a very achievable milestone to surpass. With the main catalyst of this cycle being the formal beginning of institutional adoption, who knows how much the total stablecoin market cap becomes.. 300b? 500b? 1T?

[yonder @yondercode]

whoa 4K

[Gordon 🐂 @GordonGekko]

“Dad how did you get so rich?!”

Me: “I just took some calculated risks and had a well diversified portfolio son!”

The portfolio:

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

AI will be one of the biggest bubbles in financial history.

But it's just getting started.

Even $DOGE's market cap is bigger than the ENTIRE AI crypto sector.

This is a trillion dollar opportunity, and you are STILL early.

🧵: My ULTIMATE crypto x AI guide (+ top picks).👇

[Dark Crypto Lady @DarkCryptoLord]

The easiest thing to do in a bull market is to sit on your hands and do nothing.

It is also unironically the hardest thing to do.

[Jason Choi @mrjasonchoi]

If you’re a crypto founder who was ready to launch a token but just waiting for the best time to do so, imho you missed the window ~ 2 months ago.

Fortunately the second best time is now

[Black Panther @BlackPanther_Fi]

We're thrilled to announce the claimdrop schedule for people who have staked $INJ with Black Panther's validator 🎉

Over 100,000 ninjas on @Injective_ will be eligible for this claimdrop 🥷

A thread 🧵/

[CL @CL207]

its getting too much

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

I'm usually not very superstitious, but there is one rule that never fails

whenever you get the urge to share PnL amongst friends; take some profit off the table

[Hsaka @HsakaTrades]

gm

[Res @resdegen]

@EricBalchunas

[Cal @Calyeap]

Just getting started

[db @tier10k]

SPOT ETF TOTAL TRADING VOLUME HITS $1B

Source: DB

[Cal @Calyeap]

@DarkCryptoLord

[blockgraze @blockgraze]

they really rinsed the longs twice right before the approval god candle leaves the sell-the-news crowd sidelined

absolutely poetic

[Cal @Calyeap]

@KyleLDavies wen jail ser?

[Cal @Calyeap]

$BTC ETF approval imminent

[SEC Chair Gary Gensler Archive @GenslerArchive]

A thread 🧵

Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets: