CambrianMacroResearch

Decoding US and Chinese economies through data science.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US initial jobless claims ticked down to 245K.
Continued claims stabilized around highest level with long-term unemployment and slower hiring.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US retail sales fell 0.9% in May, largely due to a drop in auto spending after a March surge, which was boosted by consumers front-loading purchases over tariff concerns.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US has entered the Israel-Iran conflict, striking 3 Iran nuclear sites in Fordo, Natanz, and Esfahan.
Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, pending final approval from the Supreme Council by tonight.
Oil prices are expected to rise by $3-5 per barrel.
#Iran #USattackIran #OOTT

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

Fed lowered GDP projections and lifted inflation expectations.
Fed forecast 2 rate cuts for the year.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

Fed held interest rates unchanged, removing the wording of labor market "stablized".

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Economists who translate the CPI and PPI into the PCE expect a third consecutive cool monthly core inflation reading in May

They have core PCE +0.13%. Because May 2024 was even lower, this would lift the y/y to 2.6%.

Headline is +0.10%. Y/y rises (to 2.3%) due to base effects.

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

The threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz made a lot of sense around 40 years ago when USA was the world's largest importer of oil. Today however, it is China and India. Try upsetting either of those two customers and somebody's gonna get hurt real baaaaaad.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

According to CNN, over 2,000 "No Kings" events to protest Trump administration's actions have been organized this Saturday, the same day as the military parade in DC and Trump's birthday.
#NoKingsProtest

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

Iranian forces launched dozens of missiles toward Israel tonight, 1 person killed and 7 wounded.
The escalation continues to intensify.
#IsraeliranWar #Iran #Israel

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US-China trade deal was settled, with US imposing 55% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Consumer sentiment has rebounded more than expected with early June reading of climbing to 60.5.
Short-term inflation expectation slid to 5.1% from 6.6% last month.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US initial jobless claims held steady at 248K while continued claims hiked above 1.95M, highest level since November 2021.
With labor market cooling and inflation softer than expected, the Fed is expected to start rate cuts by September.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US PPI edged higher in May. While economists still expect the tariffs to push up prices and lift inflation, the impact remains largely muted for now.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US CPI rose 0.1% in May, with annual rate up 2.4%
- Food prices +0.3% (Both food at home and food away from home inflation advanced)
- Energy -1% (Gasoline -2.6%)
- Rent growth steady at 0.3%
Overall inflation came in tamer than expected, with the tariff impact largely muted.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US oil and gas rigs contracted to the lowest level since November 2021.
With softer oil prices, oil rigs fell further to 442, down 50 from a year ago.
Gas rigs hiked to 114, up 16 from prior year.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US employers added 139K jobs in May, below the downwardly revised 147K in April, with Health care driving half the gains.

Unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. However, mounting economic headwinds suggest it’s only a matter of time before cracks begin to show.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US initial jobless claims rose to 247K, highest in 8 months.
Weaker hiring trend persist, with continued claims holding 1.9M.
A separate employment report from ADP also pointed to a cooling labor market, as the US economy added just 37K private-sector jobs in May.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

May US job cuts increased 47% from the prior year.

YTD through May, employers have announced 696K job cuts, an 80% increase from the prior year.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US job openings ticked up to 7.4M, defying economists' expectations for a decline.
Economists warned the unexpected rise might simply be "noise" in the economic data.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

May US manufacturing activity slipped further into contraction, with the Prices index remaining in expansion.
Respondents cited continued tariff uncertainty.

[CambrianMacroResearch @CambrianMR]

US oil rig count continued to decline, falling by 4 this week after cutting 8 last week, bringing the total to 461, down 35 rigs, or 7%, from a year ago.
#oott $Oil