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[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

February Options Monthly Performance

Realized Income: $7,916 across 22 closed trades

Win rate: 95.5% (21W/1L)
Avg P&L per trade: $360
Avg return: +58.4% per trade

Top performers:
• MSTR: $4,963 (9 trades)
• PLTR: $1,366 (4 trades)
• IBIT: $728 (3 trades)
• AMD: $845 (2 trades)

[Bitcoin for Freedom @BTC_for_Freedom]

- You: "My savings earned 4% interest."

- Government: "Taxable income!"

- You: "Inflation was 4%. I gained nothing."

- Government: "Tax the 4% anyway."

- You: "Fine. Can I deduct the inflation loss?"

- Government: "Deduct what?"

- You: "The 4% YOU took through printing."

- Government: "That's not a recognized loss."

- You: "You recognize the gain you caused but not the loss?"

- Government: "We recognize what's collectible."

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

@RandPaul I wouldn’t call it uncertainty. It is quite certain that the future purchasing power is actively being destroyed. The only uncertainty is the rate at which the destruction is happening.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

@SethDillon Ouch. Truth hurts.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

Excellent thread. I do think the credit-worthiness of the core of the debtors in this cycle is meaningfully better than the GFC.

2008 was built on a foundation of predatory loans to horrible credit risk debtors that were near-certain to default. Maybe we learned a little, but I do expect this will end badly, and largely for the reasons you spell out.

The missing part of the analysis is circular financing and double-counting between these soon-to-be massively leveraged enterprises. A new wrinkle in the systemic risk for a new debt explosion cycle.

Wonder how the treasury will print its way out of this one.

[Senator Rand Paul @SenRandPaul]

Yes, the gold is there all (approximately) 147 million ounces. It is impressive, but the real point is what it still teaches in 2026.

In 1971 we severed the dollar from gold. Since then the currency has lost roughly 85% of its value. Prices are higher because the money itself is weaker.

A family making $50,000 with two kids that has not received a 25% raise in the last five years is falling behind.

This is now often called “affordability,” but the the accurate word is inflation.

We run annual deficits of two trillion dollars. The Federal Reserve buys about a third of that debt by creating new money. Every new dollar dilutes the value of the dollars already in people’s pockets. Gold does not expand when Congress spends. Paper does.
That is the difference.

[U.S. Senator John Fetterman @SenFettermanPA]

China ❤️’s to hear this.

America must lead in the development of AI, otherwise we live under China’s rules.

That must not happen.

[Bitcoin for Freedom @BTC_for_Freedom]

- 1913: "The income tax will only hit the top 1%."

- 1935: "Social security numbers will never be used for identification."

- 1971: "The gold suspension is temporary."

- 2001: "These surveillance powers are only for terrorists."

- 2020: "Two weeks to slow the spread."

- 2026: "CBDCs will never be used to control spending."

- You: "I'm noticing a pattern."

- Government: "There's no pattern."

- You: "That's what the pattern would say."

[Sassafrass84 @Sassafrass_84]

Bingo. Winner winner chicken dinner.

[NOBUNAGA🇯🇵🏯_夏樹蒼依 @japan_nobunaga]

A kid on my street set up a stand. Not lemonade. A cardboard sign: FREE ADVICE.

He was maybe seven. He had a folding chair and a jar of pencils, in case of paperwork.

I stopped. A samurai does not pass a free consultation.

"I will take one advice," I said.

"Shoot."

"How does a man know when he is home?"

He did not hesitate. "When the dog's happy to see you."

I stood very still. Eight hundred years of my family asking that question, and a seven-year-old answered it in four words while picking his nose.

"That'll be twenty-five cents," he said.

"The sign says free."

"You got the free one. That was the free one. The dog one is premium."

I paid the twenty-five cents. I would have paid a horse.

That night I called my mother. No reason. In my family we do not call with no reason, so she answered already braced for death.

We talked for an hour about nothing. Her neighbor's tomatoes. A drama she watches. The rain.

She was happy. I could hear it. She kept finding new nothings to say so I would not hang up.

The kid was right.

Home is where someone's happy you called.

I owe that kid twenty-five more cents. I have been going back every Saturday.

His rates are insane. I pay them.

[Handre @Handre]

Ludwig von Mises sat down in 1920 and published a paper that ended the intellectual case for socialism, even if the socialists took another seven decades to notice.

The argument was precise. Mises showed that without private ownership of the means of production, there are no real prices for capital goods. Without prices, you cannot calculate profit and loss. Without profit and loss, economic planners have no way of knowing whether they are creating value or destroying it. They are flying blind, spending real resources with no feedback mechanism telling them whether the factory, the railway, or the grain depot was worth building. Every allocation becomes a guess dressed up as a decree.

This, he called the Socialist Calculation Problem, and nobody answered it. Oskar Lange tried in 1936, proposing that socialist planners could simulate prices by trial and error. Mises read this and was unimpressed (charitably put). Lange assumed you could reproduce the function of market prices without the institution that generates them: private property, genuine exchange, real skin in the game. You cannot fake the signal and expect accurate information.

The Soviet Union spent seventy years proving Mises right. Chronic shortages, misallocated steel, surplus winter boots in Georgia in July, famine engineered by committees convinced they understood grain supply better than the price system. The USSR collapsed in 1991 under the weight of precisely the inefficiencies Mises predicted in Vienna in 1920.

You are watching this play out again today, every time a government sets energy prices, rent ceilings, or pharmaceutical price caps, and then expresses shock at the resulting shortages. The calculation problem did not expire with the Soviet Union. Bureaucrats who override price signals recreate the same blindness Mises identified. Mises told you exactly what would happen.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

Solved my HSA reimbursement tracking headache this morning with a telegram->grok->obsidian bot.

Records all expenses for tax-free reimbursement “someday”.

Smart enough to know what is legit, and to track the whole package from bill to payment and EOB

So many hours saved.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

@RandyGoat Two words: social contagion.

[JD™ @LostMyHats]

Young men, don’t let anyone tell you that you aren’t a good capitalist because you rightfully complain about how hard it is to buy a home, pay your mounting bills, buy your family groceries, or keep a roof over your head.

It didn’t always used to be this way, the deck really is stacked against you, and turning you into debt cattle, tax slave, and lifelong renter were the goals of very wealthy and powerful people since they first assigned you a number. Because that’s what you are to them.

Your right to complain about it is written in your sweat and blood. And no. You are not experiencing “capitalism.” You are experiencing exploitation they call “capitalism.”

You are competing for a starter home against global capital with access to money you could never borrow at rates you could never get. You are paying taxes into a system that subsidizes corporations large enough to purchase the politicians who write the rules governing those corporations. You are watching losses get socialized while profits remain private, industries consolidate until “competition” means choosing which logo gets to fleece you, and financial institutions turn necessities like housing, medicine, education, and even food into investment vehicles to be squeezed for maximum yield.

That is not a free market. That is a market with a thumb and an entire federal bureaucracy sitting on the scale.

Real Capitalism requires meaningful competition, private property, enforceable contracts, and honest money. When the powerful can purchase exemptions, subsidies, bailouts, regulatory moats, preferential financing, cheap foreign labor, and political influence, while you get a mortgage at seven percent and a lecture about skipping Starbucks, somebody has rigged the %*#* game.

You work. You produce. You build. You fix. You haul. You create things people need. and then you watch an ever-growing procession of governments, banks, monopolies, middlemen, institutional investors, and politically connected parasites reach into your pocket to take it.

There is nothing anti-capitalist about objecting to that. That is a rigged table where the house writes the rules, deals the cards, owns the casino, lends you the money to play, and then calls you “anti-capitalist” and “unpatriotic” when you notice.

Heck, I’ll even complain *with* you. It’ll be fun. But we’ll have to do it while we work because a single day off might cause cascading financial ruin and then they’ll call us lazy.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

It always goes this way.

Interventions to counter the unintended consequences of previous interventions

To infinity.

[Rothmus 🏴 @Rothmus]

Obamacare was the government intervention on top of the government intervention making healthcare prices explode.

In 1942, a wartime wage freeze pushed companies to offer insurance instead of pay.
One of those “temporary” programs.

In 1943, the IRS made it tax free so coverage jumped from 9% to 63%.
Insurance companies (middlemen) were everywhere, price signals between patients and providers were dead.

In 1945, federal law effectively stopped health insurance from being sold across state lines.
No national competitive market.

35 states require a Certificate of Need to open a new hospital, so they end up with half as many per capita.
Supply cannot meet demand.

The mess the government created was an excuse for Obamacare.
Now the mess Obamacare created has become the excuse for government taking over the entire healthcare industry.

And it all starts with just a single government intervention in the free market.

[Libertarian Party @LPNational]

True story 😂

[Thomas Sowell Quotes @ThomasSowell]

Mike Rowe: “I don’t know if you saw this, but the stat that got me within the democratic party, 59% of Democrats who support socialism have college degrees. 40% who support socialism don’t. this thing that’s being called a ‘worker uprising,’ it’s not.”

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

Philosophically I am with you 💯. Such a broad monopoly is not ideal, but the status quo has been so stagnant for so long, it’s depressing. Why, for example, is cell service absolute shit in this day and age in many cities? Why is there only one real FSD? How can we overcome the regulatory and environmental barriers to power generation needed for compute to remain the technology leader of the world? We need more companies working these problems, but for now I am glad at least someone is pushing the frontier forward.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

Traditional cell phone companies are cooked.

Just like spacex destroyed the other satellite internet providers and point-to-point WiFi in rural areas.

The best technology will win in the end.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

SpaceX spent $19.6 billion on spectrum everyone said was too small to matter. 65 MHz, a fraction of what any one of the big three carriers controls. Then Gwynne Shotwell explained where the cell towers go, and AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile fell 2 to 4% in an afternoon.

The plan skips towers entirely. Starlink has 12 million customers with dishes bolted to their roofs, and Shotwell wants to attach a small cellular base station to the same mount. Every rooftop becomes a cell site.

That breaks the carrier cost model in a specific way. The radio was always the cheap part of a cell site. The money goes to land leases, permits, and trenching fiber backhaul to feed each antenna, which is why small cell buildouts have crawled for a decade.

Starlink's version deletes all three. The site is a customer's roof. The backhaul is the dish sitting next to the base station, already talking to satellites. And instead of paying rent to host the equipment, the host pays SpaceX $120 a month for internet.

Carriers pay landlords to carry their network. SpaceX's landlords pay SpaceX.

The satellites cover everything the rooftops miss. Next gen direct to cell satellites launch in 2027, and Shotwell says the upgraded service will be 100x better than the version that already texts your phone in dead zones today.

The strangest seat in the room belongs to T-Mobile. They leased SpaceX the 5 MHz that proved direct to cell works, marketed it as T-Satellite, and taught their own customers to trust the signal. In 2027 the partner files in as the fourth carrier.

[CapForgeApp @CapForgeApp]

@BasedMikeLee And yet, here we are