Capital Arias

Boutique Hedge Fund established in 2017. With presence in Mexico and France.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

BofA on AI inflation: "Hyperscalers have dramatically accelerated capital spending, with capex projected to rise roughly 90% y/y this year and by a further 36% next year. This investment boom represents a sizeable demand shock that is already affecting portions of the price basket and could generate broader second-round effects over time."

[CTV News @CTVNews]

#BREAKING: Quebec sovereigntist party will form next government, CTV News projects.

Live results here: https://t.co/j9LOGQEAuU

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

JUST NOW: President Donald J. Trump signs an Executive Order to temporarily allow off-road “dyed” diesel for highway use, lowering costs for Americans.

This action will put money directly BACK in the pockets of American farmers, truckers, & workers. 🇺🇸

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK HAS BEEN VISITING BIG BANKS TO REVIEW THEIR LOANS TO PRIVATE CREDIT FIRMS, WITH FED OFFICIALS GOING INTO JPMORGAN, WELLS FARGO, BARCLAYS AND MORGAN STANLEY WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT EXPOSURE, RISK MANAGEMENT AND COLLATERAL QUALITY - SEMAFOR

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan activate Mecca Joint Defense Pact due to Houthi attacks, with forces and capabilities set to be deployed to Saudi Arabia.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

SAUDI ARABIA, PAKISTAN, TURKEY AGREE RAPID MILITARY DEPLOYMENT

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey convened an emergency meeting of the Mecca Alliance’s defense committee, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry says.

The three countries agreed to provide military forces and capabilities for rapid deployment in Saudi Arabia and condemned the attempted targeting of Mecca and Madinah.

Pakistan’s Nauman Mahmood was named the alliance’s first secretary-general for a three-year term.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

YIELD ON 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE LAST UP 6.59 BASIS POINTS AT 5.343% AFTER HITTING FRESH 24-YEAR HIGH AT 5.3493%

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

HIGH YIELDS FORCE MUNI BORROWERS TO DELAY REFINANCINGS

Roughly $6 billion of municipal bond refinancing deals are on hold or delayed as elevated yields erase potential savings for borrowers.

Benchmark 30-year muni yields recently hit 5.26%, the highest since at least 2011.

New Jersey postponed a planned $1.7 billion refunding, while Philadelphia delayed a $450 million deal. New York’s MTA is also considering a $1 billion refinancing, subject to market conditions.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TREASURY YIELDS SURGE TO FRESH 24-YEAR HIGHS

Treasuries sold off sharply, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.34% and the 30-year to 5.70%, their highest levels since 2002.

Pressure comes from resilient growth, AI-driven investment and persistent inflation, with ISM Services Prices Paid hitting 74.0, the highest since July 2022.

Markets price roughly a 25% chance of an October Fed hike, with a full 25bp increase priced by December.

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US President Trump On If He’ll Resume Canada Trade Talks Before The Midterms: “I Don’t Know”

[LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk]

US President Trump On Iran: Always Open To Direct Talks

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Stocks and bond yields now perfectly correlated. The tighter financial conditions, the better.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*IRAN’S OIL MINISTER MOHSEN PAKNEJAD RESIGNS: PRESS TV

*IRAN PRESIDENT NAMES HAMID BOVARD ACTING OIL MINISTER:PRESS TV

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Far-Left Riots "Tearing France Apart" Is Political Gift For Le Pen As Election Odds Soar https://t.co/xI9YGeD4Q6

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TREASURY 2- AND 5-YEAR YIELDS RETURN TO PRE-JOBS DATA LEVELS

That was fast

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TIMIRAOS: WEAK JOBS REPORT CLEARS PATH FOR FED PAUSE

The September jobs report gives the Fed more room to hold rates steady in October, with hiring slowing and unemployment edging up to 4.2%.

With little evidence of labor-market inflation pressure, attention now shifts to September CPI on October 14, which could be more decisive for the next rate move.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*MACRON: G7 DECIDED TO RELEASE DIESEL AND CRUDE STOCKS

*MACRON: DIESEL, CRUDE STOCKS TO BE RELEASED OVER 4 MONTHS

[Christophe Barraud 🇫🇷 🇲🇨 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇲 *US SEPT. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3% - BBG
*US SEPT. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 3.0% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%

*TRADERS PARE BETS ON OCTOBER FED RATE HIKE

https://t.co/uedoNtcfTr

[Capital Arias @CapitalArias]

RT @LiveSquawk: US Asked Europe To Release Over One Third Of Diesel Reserves - POLITICO

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Initial claims 197K
Continuing claims 1701K, Exp. 1725K