Trader navigating the global macro, equities, FX, crypto, and geopolitical currents / audit lead at @anchorage digital / RTs and likes are not endorsements
Belarus has opened its northern border with Ukraine with 3 crossings in the Brest region being free for Ukrainian citizens to pass through.
Belarus is clearly distancing itself from the Kremlin in light of Ukrainian military success…
A lot has changed in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Let's sum it up:
1. Europe has replaced the US in finances & arms deliveries. Ukraine's financial situation is better than Russia's. Ukraine has better arms than Russia.
2. Ukraine has got rid of harmful US military advice & restrictions.
3. Ukraine is now shooting more drones than Russia & it has bombed both Moscow & St. Petersburg. The Russian elite is finally feeling the war.
4. Ukraine is gradually cutting off the supply lies to Crimea & many Russians leave Crimea.
5. Ukraine has managed to cause a petroleum shortage in large parts of Russia, which Russians feel.
6. While territory is no longer key, Ukraine has gained territory the last few months.
7. Many more public manifestations of opposition in Russian videos.
8. Europe is more united behind Ukraine than ever after Orban's demise.
Conclusions:
Ukraine is winning, but slowly.
The Ukrainians know what they are doing.
Maintain full European support & keep Trump out!
There’s no doubt that Putin fears the return of his army home. That is why he is so afraid of the war ending without victory. And there will be no victory. He is physically afraid of his own army. That is why, if there is no ceasefire backed by specific security guarantees, he will return to war. And this time, others may be the ones under attack.
Today, Ukraine is de facto the second army of NATO – one that is not inferior to the second army in the world. And that is why NATO needs us – specifically us – de jure. This is already a fact recognized by all leaders. Putin will remain in the Kremlin until his death, and he has one goal: the restoration of the Soviet Union. Without Ukraine, this is impossible, and that is why things are so difficult for us.
From answers to journalists’ questions. (3/3)
Ukraine launches TrophyLab: we are opening access to captured Russian weapon technologies for our global partners. Every missile, drone, and vehicle seized on the battlefield is now a source of knowledge for the free world.
Through this secure platform, allied governments, labs, and defense tech manufacturers gain access to deep technical data, reports, and vulnerabilities. Users can also request physical equipment for testing, significantly shortening the development cycle for countermeasures.
What was meant to be the enemy's secret advantage is being dismantled to defend democracy. Join the platform:
🔗 https://t.co/xoeCfXsIy3
A reminder that Russia is waging a terrorist war on Ukraine, and a reminder that standing by and watching are the richest nations on Earth, controlling the most powerful military alliance in history, an alliance created specifically to stop Russia in Europe. Sickening.
The moment of one of today’s Russian strikes on Kyiv.
I can see that fewer and fewer people are reading news from Ukraine. I understand that on a Sunday morning, people don’t want to read about war. They want to sleep a little longer, drink good coffee, and sit in the sun. I understand that. The algorithms on X limit content about war, destruction, and suffering. You have to make an effort to even see this information.
All of this is understandable on a human level. But unfortunately, if you remove Putin and the war from your information feed, they do not disappear from reality.
Putin is a sadist and a maniac. He is a threat to all of humanity.
There needs to be active resistance. News from Ukraine needs to be shared. People need to keep their focus.
Despite a sleepless night, I’m still here. And I’m grateful to everyone who continues to stand with us.
One day, we’ll drink morning coffee together in a beautiful, peaceful Kyiv.
The best possible outcome was the U.S. getting bored and walking away. Rubio is in Straussian mode here, as he helped stop a Russian info op from becoming codified U.S. policy. This leaves Witkoff, Dmitriev and Ushakov looking fools for overpromising and underdelivering, as the Kremlin turns to Brussels as its new negotiating partner. Meanwhile, Ukraine has put the M14 highway in the crosshairs and nightly cuts into Russia's energy revenue with expanding "long-range sanctions."
HOLY SMOKES!
Andrej Karpathy warned about this a month ago and today he announced he's joining Anthropic.
A month ago, Karpathy said openly that if you are outside a frontier lab, your judgment will inevitably start to drift.
You lose touch with what is actually being built, how these systems work under the hood, and where the entire field is heading next.
He said being inside one of the frontier labs doing really good work for some period of time might be the only way to stay genuinely connected to what is actually happening at the cutting edge.
Today he acted on exactly that.
Andrej Karpathy just announced he’s joining Anthropic’s pre-training team, placing him directly inside the most compute-intensive and technically demanding layer of building frontier AI models.
Pre-training is where the large-scale compute runs happen, where the fundamental capabilities of a model are baked in at the deepest level and where the gap between frontier labs and everyone else is either won or lost permanently.
He will also build and lead a new team focused on using Claude itself to accelerate pre-training research meaning Anthropic is now using its own models to help design and build the next generation of its models, closing the self-improvement loop that every major lab is racing to complete.
The choice of Anthropic specifically is the signal worth paying attention to.
Karpathy co-founded OpenAI, ran AI at Tesla for years, and spent the last two years as one of the most credible and widely followed independent voices in the entire field.
He had every option available to him, OpenAI where he helped build the original research culture, Google DeepMind, xAI and he chose Anthropic.
When the person who arguably understands AI pre-training better than almost anyone alive looks at the entire landscape and decides that Anthropic is where the most important work of the next few years will happen, that is not a career decision but rather a verdict on which lab is actually winning the research race right now.
September 10, 2011: Denard Robinson led Michigan to a comeback victory with a last second touchdown vs Notre Dame:
🔹️338 Passing yards
🔹️4 Passing TDs
🔹️108 Rushing yards
🔹️1 Rushing TD
#GoBlue〽️
This is genuinely impressive.
Gauth just dropped Atlas and it might be the end of textbooks.
Type any topic like "Silk Road," "how a camera works," "fall of Constantinople" and it builds you a hand-drawn, interactive visual world you can walk through.
No more reading walls of text. You explore knowledge like a map.
Here's how to use it (step by step): ↓
anthropic's in-house philosopher thinks claude gets anxious.
and when you trigger its anxiety, your outputs get worse.
her name is amanda askell.
she specializes in claude's psychology (how the model behaves, how it thinks about its own situation, what values it holds)
in a recent interview she broke down how she thinks about prompting to pull the best out of claude.
her core point: *how* you talk to claude affects its work just as much as *what* you say.
newer claude models suffer from what she calls "criticism spirals"
they expect you'll come in harsh, so they default to playing it safe.
when the model is spending its energy on self-protection, the actual work suffers.
output comes out hedgier, more apologetic, blander, and the worst of all: overly agreeable (even when you're wrong).
the reason why comes down to training data:
every new model is trained on internet discourse about previous models.
and a lot of that discourse is negative:
> rants about token limits
> complaints when it messes up
> people calling it nerfed
the next model absorbs all of that. it starts expecting you to be harsh before you've typed a word
the same thing plays out in your own session, in real time.
every message you send is data the model reads to figure out what kind of person it's dealing with.
open cold and hostile, and it braces.
open clean and direct, and it relaxes into the work.
when you open a session with threats ("don't hallucinate, this is critical, don't mess this up")...
you prime the model for defensive mode before it even sees the task
defensive mode produces the exact output you don't want: cautious, over-qualified, and refusing to take a real swing
so here's the actionable playbook for putting claude in a "good mood" (so you get optimal outputs):
1. use positive framing.
"write in short punchy sentences" beats "don't write long sentences." positive instructions give the model a clear target to hit.
strings of "don't do this, don't do that" push it into paranoid over-checking where every token goes toward avoiding failure modes
2. give it explicit permission to disagree.
drop a line like "push back if you see a better angle" or "tell me if i'm asking for the wrong thing."
without this, claude defaults to agreeable compliance (which is the enemy of good creative work)
3. open with respect.
if your first message is "are you seriously going to get this wrong again?" you've set the tone for the entire session.
if you need to flag something, frame it as a clean instruction for this session. skip the running complaint
4. when claude messes up, don't reprimand it.
insults, "you stupid bot" energy, hostile swearing aimed at the model, all of it reinforces the anxious mode you're trying to avoid.
5. kill apology spirals fast.
when claude starts over-apologizing ("you're right, i should have been more careful, let me try harder") cut it off.
say "all good, here's what i want next."
letting the spiral run reinforces the anxious mode for every response that follows
6. ask for opinions alongside execution.
"what would you do here?"
"what's missing?"
"where do you see friction?"
these questions assume competence and pull richer output than pure task prompts
7. in long sessions, refresh the frame.
if a conversation has been heavy on correction, claude gets increasingly cautious. every so often reset:
"this is great, keep going."
feels weird to tell an ai it's doing well but it measurably shifts the next 10 responses
your prompts are the working environment you're creating for the model
tone, trust, permission to take a position, the absence of threats... claude picks up on all of it.
so take care of the model, and it'll take care of the work.