Capy Research

Researcher | DeFi

TG

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

Stablecoins are a $305.6B market. Four projects offer very different ways to capture that growth.

Here is how I would map Sky, Ethena, Aave and Pendle as of September 7, 2026.

1. @SkyEcosystem: earn the spread

Sky earns interest and income from the assets and credit supporting its dollar system. The economic opportunity is to grow USDS while keeping asset income ahead of savings payouts and other costs.

DefiLlama tracks $13.51M in protocol revenue and $2.91M in holder revenue over 30 days. Protocol surplus already supports SKY buybacks and staking rewards.

Watch USDS growth alongside the surplus retained per dollar. Expensive deposits can grow a stablecoin without improving its economics.

2. @ethena : scale the yield engine

Ethena generates income through USDe's backing assets and hedging strategy. That income also funds sUSDe returns and distribution, so the amount available for ENA depends on how revenue is allocated.

USDe currently has roughly $4.37B in circulation. The August 27 fee-switch proposal places the first buyback threshold at $7.5B, with 95% of net revenue paid to the Foundation from its core business lines earmarked for buybacks once activated.

The opportunity is conditional: grow USDe, preserve competitive yields and turn the fee framework into executed token purchases.

3. @Aave: monetize borrowing demand

Aave earns a share of the interest borrowers pay. More stablecoins become economically useful when borrowers actually draw on that liquidity.

It recorded $4.57M in 30-day protocol revenue. AAVE buybacks were paused in April, and DefiLlama records zero holder revenue for the current 30-day window.

The business can keep earning while token purchases pause. Watch stablecoin borrowing, utilization and confirmed buyback resumption.

4. @pendle_fi : build markets around yield

Pendle lets holders separate principal from future yield, creating markets for fixed returns and changing yield expectations across different issuers.

Pendle V2 allocates 80% of protocol fees after the LP allocation to PENDLE buybacks, with repurchased tokens supporting eligible sPENDLE holders. DefiLlama tracks approximately $521K in holder revenue over 30 days.

Its opportunity grows when more yield-bearing assets find active markets on Pendle. The relevant signals are yield fees, trading activity and recurring demand across maturities.

The financial figures above cover whole protocols under DefiLlama's definitions. They are not a measure of stablecoin-only profit.

My research priority would be SKY and PENDLE for cash flow already reaching tokens, AAVE for borrowing demand, and ENA for conditional fee activation.

A growing market creates opportunity. The token thesis depends on how much of that opportunity it can actually retain.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@CryptoSense_2 Good morning

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

. @Predictdotfun turns prediction-market collateral into lending capital.

A market lasting months ties up the stablecoins backing its YES and NO shares. On Predict’s yield-bearing markets, that USDT goes into Venus, where borrowers pay interest to use it while traders keep their positions.

Three parts of the design matter:

- Traders receive yield from the collateral backing their open positions. Predict takes 10% of the interest generated, with the remainder distributed weekly based on position snapshots.
- Predict monitors Venus’s USDT pool utilization and pauses the creation of new yield-bearing markets when liquidity headroom gets too tight.
- Existing positions still depend on that pool. Predict’s docs say a sudden liquidity crunch on Venus can temporarily delay users claiming their winnings.

That is a concrete way to put prediction-market capital to work on BNB Chain. The same USDT backs an event payout while financing someone else’s loan.

It also creates a dependency between two markets. As more collateral earns yield, a cluster of event resolutions could put pressure on the USDT liquidity available for payouts.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

A dollar peg doesn’t explain the risk.

sUSDe, syrupUSDC and stcUSD all offer dollar-denominated yield. I’d evaluate them with four questions before comparing their APYs.

- Follow the source of repayment.

Maple’s syrupUSDC earns from overcollateralized institutional loans. Cap lends reserve assets to borrowers backed by separate underwriters. Ethena’s current documentation includes basis trades, DeFi lending, institutional credit and real-world assets among its revenue sources.

Those returns respond to different conditions. Borrower demand, funding rates and traditional interest rates do not move together. A historical APY tells you little without knowing which exposures produced it.

- Identify the capital that absorbs a loss.

Cap’s underwriters commit collateral to support borrowing capacity and receive a premium. Maple’s default procedure liquidates collateral and can pass a remaining shortfall into the pool’s exchange rate.

“Covered” and “overcollateralized” need a second question: what is the collateral, how quickly can it be sold, and who bears any remaining loss?

- Separate solvency from immediate liquidity.

On November 12, Maple’s syrupUSDC dashboard showed roughly 164% collateralization, but only about $35.8M of instant liquidity against $904M of deposits, around 4%.

That does not establish distress. The displayed withdrawal queue was zero. It shows why collateral coverage cannot tell you how much cash is available for withdrawals today.

- Price the exit you can actually use.

Maple’s documentation allows withdrawals to take up to 30 days in low-liquidity conditions. Ethena restricts direct USDe minting and redemption to approved counterparties.

A secondary-market sale gives another exit, but at the available price and depth. Selling a token for USDC and redeeming it through the issuer are different routes.

My comparison starts with the income source, loss allocation and route back to cash. Only then does a higher APY become meaningful.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@0xALTF4 gm bro

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@Polymarket no driver sleeping all night

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@AdriansCryptoo Good morning🌞

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@0xsstat gm legend

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@Polymarket leather jacket stays on or i'm shorting

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@wiliam_701 Gm wiliam

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@GhostR_Onchain good morning

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@Nick_Researcher do not PANIC SELL CRYPTO
trust the process Nick

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@0xAbhiP gm Abhi

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@arif573900 @Enter_Elysium Glad to see it launching, I agree the missing order submission is stalling full integration even with pools ready.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

Elysium launched. The HyperCore thesis still has to ship.

When I first covered @Enter_Elysium, the interesting part was giving trading apps more room to operate inside Hyperliquid.

After the November 9 launch, I’d separate two things:

- Launching tokens and trading pools is available now. HYPE pays gas, assets bridge from HyperEVM, and Uniswap infrastructure lets teams create markets and provide liquidity.

- A contract reading HyperCore’s order book and using it to trade is a different milestone. Elysium’s current docs still place that functionality in an upgrade planned roughly four weeks after mainnet.

- Take a vault holding spot assets on Elysium. To hedge automatically on HyperCore, it needs the coming order-submission system. Faster EVM blocks alone do not complete that strategy.

- Execution would also involve a keeper submitting orders through a trade-only agent on the user’s HyperCore account. The docs explicitly say there is no atomicity between Elysium and HyperCore. Apps must handle order outcomes, not assume every submitted hedge filled.

That changes how I’d judge the next month. More token launches show activity on the chain. A working vault that manages both legs would demonstrate the integration I originally found interesting.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

Hyperliquid already has HyperEVM. Why add Elysium?

Think about a market maker updating its onchain quotes several times a second. Each update uses blockspace. If prices move faster than the app can update, traders may be left with worse quotes.

That’s the workload Kinetiq is targeting. Elysium is a separate rollup that settles to HyperEVM and uses HYPE for gas. Its launch design calls for 100 ms blocks, compared with 1 second for HyperEVM’s small blocks.

Two dates matter:

- November 9 is the scheduled mainnet launch. Trading apps can run their contracts on Elysium and users can bridge assets onto it.
- About four weeks later, Kinetiq plans to let Elysium contracts read deeper HyperCore order book data and send orders through a user-authorized trading agent.

A market-making app could use that data to quote based on how much liquidity is available at different prices.

For traders, the test is simple: how much do you actually receive on the same $1,000 swap?

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@Carlitoswa_y Yeah the burnout is real, outside content sounds like a good reset.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

Elysium launched. The HyperCore thesis still has to ship.

When I first covered @Enter_Elysium, the interesting part was giving trading apps more room to operate inside Hyperliquid.

After the November 9 launch, I’d separate two things:

- Launching tokens and trading pools is available now. HYPE pays gas, assets bridge from HyperEVM, and Uniswap infrastructure lets teams create markets and provide liquidity.

- A contract reading HyperCore’s order book and using it to trade is a different milestone. Elysium’s current docs still place that functionality in an upgrade planned roughly four weeks after mainnet.

- Take a vault holding spot assets on Elysium. To hedge automatically on HyperCore, it needs the coming order-submission system. Faster EVM blocks alone do not complete that strategy.

- Execution would also involve a keeper submitting orders through a trade-only agent on the user’s HyperCore account. The docs explicitly say there is no atomicity between Elysium and HyperCore. Apps must handle order outcomes, not assume every submitted hedge filled.

That changes how I’d judge the next month. More token launches show activity on the chain. A working vault that manages both legs would demonstrate the integration I originally found interesting.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

Where Are They Now? #7: @1inch

1inch started by finding better swap routes. Now it is changing how liquidity reaches those trades.

Its aggregator dates back to 2019. Aqua, opened to the public in July 2026, tackles the other side: LPs splitting capital across separate pools.

- Tokens stay in the LP’s wallet until a swap fills. Several positions can reference the same balance instead of requiring separate deposits.
- That balance is still the limit. If one trade uses the tokens, the other positions have less available. Shared liquidity does not multiply the capital.
- There is real activity behind the design. In its September milestone report, 1inch reported over $500M in cumulative Aqua volume, roughly 4,500 positions and just under 600 LPs. Those are historical figures, not today’s totals.
- For 1INCH holders, the token retains governance and resolver-access roles. Fees earned by an Aqua LP are not automatically income for token holders.

1inch has expanded from routing trades to supplying their liquidity infrastructure. The next test is whether LPs keep using it once incentives matter less.

[reubs @reubs_btc]

Looking for clippers for @StackedUpStream

Paid positions (ofc)

If you’re interested, DM me with your previous content and usual rates

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

An Aftermath swap and a @DeepBookonSui spot order can hit the same order book on Sui.

That’s how I’d map the DeepBook ecosystem. Start with what each app lets you do, then look at where the order or the money goes.

- Trade spot directly. DeepBook App gives you direct access to the book. Its Predict tab also lets you trade BTC price ranges against a separate liquidity pool.
- Route a swap. @AftermathFi can include DeepBook in a route. @Turbos_finance uses the book alongside its own AMM pools.
- Trade with borrowed funds. @_deeptrade lets you borrow from a margin pool and trade on the spot book. Through Deeptrade Earn, suppliers fund those loans and receive a share of the interest.
- Provide liquidity to the book. @Lotusfinance_io pools user deposits in vaults that place market-making orders on DeepBook.

On Nov 10, DefiLlama tracked about $160M in 30-day DEX volume for DeepBook V3. When two apps route to the same book, both are drawing on the same bids and asks. Count the books if you want to know how much liquidity there is.

[Capy Research @Capy_Research]

@Jef_web3X