Jonathan

Trucking Transportation Equipment Expert
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[Alien Milian (Al) @alienmilian]

THE $300 MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION FOR CH ROBINSON.

FOR EVERY $1 OF RXO REVENUE, C.H. ROBINSON IS PAYING ABOUT $0.85.
FOR EVERY $1 OF GROSS PROFIT, IT'S PAYING $5.80.
AND FOR EVERY $1 OF CURRENT ESTIMATED EBITDA, IT'S PAYING ROUGHLY $42.

That’s based on a ~$5.8 BILLION enterprise value and RXO’s estimated 2026 numbers:

Revenue: ~$6.8B
Gross Profit: ~$1.0B
Adjusted EBITDA: ~$137M
But C.H. Robinson expects $300 MILLION in annual cost synergies within two years.
So the $300 MILLION question is:

Where do those savings come from?
Layoffs and eliminating overlapping positions?
THE POPULAR PLAY: AI Agents and automation?

CAN C.H. ROBINSON REALLY DELIVER $300 MILLION IN ANNUAL SYNERGIES WITHIN TWO YEARS?

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

This is who you need to hear from on the $RXO acquisition this morning by $CHRW

I appreciate the solid reporting in an industry that can have a lot of noise.

@FreightWaves @FreightAlley @JohnHKingston

[Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ @FreightAlley]

The logic for the CH - RXO transaction comes down to one number: $300m.

That is what CH believes it can achieve in synergies.

At 26x (CH's PE multiple) that is $7.8B in value created from synergies - alone.

That is more than the $5.8B that CH is paying for RXO.

This deal is a no-brainer for CH under Bozeman.

[Broken Moats @BrokenMoats]

$CHRW shareholders not buying. Incredible amount of uncertainty in brokerage and how that will look in a few years from litigation impacts on costs (insurance and liability) and AI on margins/take rates. It is a phenomenal deal for $QXO shareholders as they get to exit at cyclical high pricing into incredible uncertainty. (why CHRW down)

Also in your multiple assessment above, you need to consider a whole bunch more factors than putting a multiple on a several year out synergy target number (1 chew trading under 20x forward 27' numbers), Ch share count will increase 16%+ (for accretion/dilution scenerios), debt costs will significantly increase (that is stripped out of there) as well as all the severance and integration costs they will incur in the next few years. This deal is quite risky in my opinion. I

Also as someone in your shoes knows covering the industry for years, the history of Brokerage acquisitions paying off is quite poor (just see QXO's Coyote acquisition a few years ago)

[BAT @BATMongoose]

$CHRW with this silly acquisition after sweet talking the street for months trying to get the multiple up.👎

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

I did not know about the $175M Break Fee 👀

[Terminal Signals @trmnl_data]

$CHRW: $5.8B RXO Acquisition, $175M Break Fee

• CHRW acquires RXO at $30.25/share ($5.8B EV), 29% premium; ~57% cash, 43% stock; RXO shareholders retain ~11% of combined entity.
• $300M net run-rate cost synergies targeted within two years via Lean AI model; mid-teens adjusted EPS accretion guided for 2028.
• Bridge facility is 364-day senior unsecured paper — CHRW faces hard refinancing deadline post-close, creating concentrated capital markets execution risk.

[Market Rebellion @MarketRebels]

C.H. Robinson $CHRW DROPS about 10% after agreeing to buy RXO for roughly $5.8 billion in cash and stock. Buyers are fixated on new debt, new shares and a pause in buybacks while borrowing gets paid back down. Management points to $300 million in cost savings within two years, close expected in the first half of 2027. @petenajarian @jonnajarian weigh in because #ITSNOTANOPTION 📙 RebelCon 2026 Oct 19-21 Vegas 👉 https://t.co/3C7PXfQHvx

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

Bull case for $CHRW after today's acquisition? 📈

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

Is anyone else looking at other transportation stocks at this point?

What a day

[Adam L. Wingfield 🚛👨🏾‍💻 @adamlwingfield]

CH Robinson acquires RXO.

https://t.co/7msI5zucNd

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

Let's all be honest, today's news of $CHRW buying $RXO made Freight Fun again

[John Kingston @JohnHKingston]

But wait! There's more! Here's the final tally on how the respective stocks did today for the betrothed 3PLs: $CHRW was down $17.11 to $140.61, a drop of 10.85%. $RXO was up $5.27 to $28.65, gain of 22.54%. It's the highest price since December 2024.

[John Kingston @JohnHKingston]

@CarHaulerBoss Thank you but I am pretty sure my boss @FreightAlley has that distinction.

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

Wow, its amazing how quickly new followers come and go on X 😂

[Jonathan @CarHaulerBoss]

@JohnHKingston John, you should be the most followed transport account on X after this $RXO acquisition discussion.

It's a difficult industry, and it's important to have sources you can rely on.

Great work @JohnHKingston 🚛

[John Kingston @JohnHKingston]

I could put out tweets about what $CHRW management said today on its call with analysts ad infinitum. And FreightWaves has more to write. But this is important: asked if there were antitrust concerns with the deal, CEO Bozeman said no, hopes the deal will close in 3-6 months.

[Payne Transportation @GoPayneTrans]

https://t.co/KmC0jOcYcS

[Birkett Freight Solutions @BirkettFreight]

Fall colours on the road 🍁🚛
Our professional drivers see some of the best views, and Gerald caught this one along his journey. Thanks for sharing and safe travels.

[Livingston Intl. @livingston_intl]

An effective customs plan can turn regulatory compliance into a competitive advantage.

How effective is your customs and trade compliance regime? Do you know how to tell?

Our guide can help: https://t.co/fytUicNjq5
#customs #IEEPA #USMC

[Kotylak @Kotyjo]

On the Ag File, we made good progress yesterday and should get all our wheat done today, then back to harvesting canola to finish the year.

To anyone taught or convinced our climate has changed, realize we have four distinct seasons in Canada: spring, summer, fall, and the dreaded Russian winter.

October came in and warm temps are gone. It froze for the first time at night, the wind changed to the NW and blew the leaves away. It's happened the exact same since time began.

Wake the fuck up, it's weather. Some years it snows a few times and one stays. Sometimes it's nice till almost Christmas.

Have a great day, enjoy it. It's just fall in Saskatchewan.

[Trent Klarenbach @TrentKlarenbach]

Farm Credit Canada is shopping its C$1B project finance fund around to Bay Street.

They’re looking for private capital partners for loans ranging from $10M to $250M.

A $250M cheque doesn't buy a seed drill.

It buys a crush plant or a processing facility.

Read more in The Daily Kernel.